View
212
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Dave GustafsonSenior Fellow
Monsanto
8 November 2013Third Lemann Dialogue
Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil
coming to a planet near you
- Farming
FARMING
“X-Farming”
• What is it?– Farming to meet rapidly accelerating
demand, within an increasingly extreme environment
• Advances in climate science are clarifying likely future scenarios– Extreme weather makes farming
harder• Challenges and opportunities• Conclusions
2
FARMING
•Climate change & impacts on ecosystems•Extreme
weather events
•Reduced research spending
•Agricultural sustainability
•Decreased food security
•Depletion of natural
resources•Food and
water safety
•Growing world population•Supply/Demand
imbalance•Nutrition,
health, & well-being
Farming is at the Center of Multiple Global Megatrends
3
FARMING
Rapidly Accelerating Global Grain Demand
Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture Division
30%INCREASE IN
MEAT CONSUMPTION
By 2030…
1.4 B MORE
PEOPLE2000 2010 2015 2020 20300
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Corn Wheat Soybeans CottonRice
GLOBAL GRAIN DEMAND (MMT)
+102%
+40%
+76%
+28%+125%
2X Global GDP
4
FARMING
Monsanto Fellow Assessments
Andrew LeakeyBarry Goodwin
Cynthia RosenzweigDonald OrtMark Taylor
Nicholas PiggottSteve Schneider
Steve LongThomas Zacharias
Don WuebblesLewis Ziska
Mike CastellanoDavid LobellJohn Trumble
XB Yang
Climate Change Symposium (2007) Climate Science Workshop (2013)
• Climate change is happening and will impact agriculture
• Current business model is secure– Well positioned for expected
rate of change– MON technologies helping with
adaptation and mitigation• Sustainability should become
an even greater focus for MON
• Evidence for accelerating climate change has grown since 2007
• Climate is changing faster than the more conservative model predictions– Reinforces previous conclusions,
but near-term impacts greater than previously concluded
• Little known about how climate change will impact pests & disease 5
FARMING
Temperatures are Increasing
• All temperature measures agree surface warming is underway
• Unanimous corroborative data (glaciers, migration dates, etc.)
• Unprecedented rate of warming began in late 1960’s, linked by modeling to man-made causes
Complete summertime melt of Arctic ice cap now imminent
US Climate Change Science Program Report (27 May 2008)
6
FARMING
Increases in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather
• Floods• Drought• Heat waves• Wind-storms• Severe t-storms• Tropical cyclones
Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012)
Des Moines (2008)
Pakistan (2010) Texas (2011)
St. Louis (May 31, 2013)
St. Louis (April 10, 2013)
7
FARMING
8
GHG Concentrations Linked to World Population Growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Wo
rld
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illi
on
s)
Fastest growth occurred in 1962 (doubling time of 32 years)
FARMING
9
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Fo
rcin
g R
ela
tive t
o t
he Y
ear
1750 (
W/m2
)
Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxide Methane Man-Made GHG
GHG Forcing, Significance
source: NOAA GHG Inventory
Direct forcing only, minor GHG gases not shown (CFC’s etc.)
This amount of addedradiational forcing already
equates to a nearly 2% increaseof absorbed solar radiation. That’slike moving the earth a million milescloser to the sun. Natural changesin solar intensity (due to sunspot
activity, etc.) are on theorder of 0.1%.
FARMING
10
180
210
240
270
300
-420000 -350000 -280000 -210000 -140000 -70000 0
Years BCE
Atm
os
ph
eri
c C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e (
pp
mv)
3
0
-3
-6
-9
Glo
ba
l T
em
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(°F
)
T (°F)
CO2
420 350 280 210 140 70 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
180
210
240
270
300
-420000 -350000 -280000 -210000 -140000 -70000 0
Years BCE
Atm
os
ph
eri
c C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e (
pp
mv)
3
0
-3
-6
-9
Glo
ba
l T
em
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(°F
)
T (°F)
CO2
420 350 280 210 140 70 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
Climate Cycling of the Late Pleistocene (glaciation events)
source: Vostok ice cores
agriculturedeveloped
420 350 280 210 140 70 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
These swings are dueto “Milankovitch” orbitalforcings of a very smallmagnitude (<0.5 W/m2)
FARMING
Future Climate Assessment: Adaptation in Ag is Essential
Challenge of increasing yields of key crops to support global food demand becomes more difficult with climate change.
Significantly expanded research programs, as well as adoption of agriculture technology, are needed to drive yield gains in staple
crops.
Impact of immediate mitigation
Current trajectory
Small changes in Earth’s average temperature have
significant impact
11
FARMING
Crop Impacts Globally
Africa suffers most, due to drought, low
adaptive capacity
Asian coastal systems
vulnerable, especially mega-
deltas
Severe drought
Heat and drought stress
during the summer (esp.
E, S)
Eastern Amazonia becomes a
savanna, stress on some crops, but temperate-
zone soy is helped
Crops initially benefit, but those in
drought-stressed areas projected to
decline
12
FARMING
Impacts of Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events
China: Wheat2011 Drought
South Africa: Corn2011 floods
Sri Lanka: Rice
2011 Cyclones
Brazil : Soybean, Corn
2008 Drought
Mexico : White Corn
2009 Drought2011 Freeze
Australia: Wheat2006 DroughtArgentina: Soybean,
Corn2008 Drought
Paraguay: Soybean2008 Drought
Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: Wheat
2010 Drought and Heat Wave
Colombia: livestock2010 Flood
13
United States: Corn, Soy
2012 Drought
Source: World Bank
Corn
Wheat
13
FARMING
Temperature Sensitivity of Corn & Soy
• Panel analysis of US rain-fed corn and soybean yields identify strong role of time above 29°C (~84 °F)
source: Schlenker and Roberts, PNAS (2009) 14
FARMING
Predicted Livestock Impacts
• Forage quality generally declines with increasing CO2
• Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes likely to reduce livestockproductivity
15
FARMING
Indirect Climate Impacts
Weeds Range and reproductivity increases Pathogen and insect host implications
Insects Lepidopteran and Coleopteran range expansion Insect-vectored mycotoxin increase Potential new pest targets (aphids, spider mites, etc.)Diseases Nematodes under hot dry conditions Foliar and stalk diseases under hot and wet conditionsSoil HealthChanges in micronutrient content due to droughts
16
FARMING
Staple Crop Yield Gains Vary with Level of Investment
Global rates of yield gain (1961-2011), based on data available from FAOSTAT
Rate Needed to Double Yields by 2050
PotatoesSorghum
Sugar caneCassava
MilletPulses
Sweet PotatoesWheat
RiceSoybeans
Maize
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Annual Rate of Yield Gain (%)
Impact of Reducing Food Wastage by
30%
17
FARMING
Maize Yield Gaps Vary with Level of Ag Intensification
source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press) 18
FARMING
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
High Medium Low
MT/HA
Country Level of Intensification
Breeding Trials
National Averages
Ag Intensification Needed to Reduce Maize Yield Gaps
Individual Country Averages
19source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press)
FARMING
New Technology Combinations are Needed to Successfully Adapt
AGRONOMIC SOLUTIONSPRECISION AGRICULTURE
INCORPORATION OF I.T. SOLUTIONS, COVER CROPS
NEW HYBRIDS/VARIETIES
GERMPLASM IS THE CENTERPIECE OF PERFORMANCE
BREEDING TRAITSDISEASE, NEMATODE AND INSECT
PROTECTION
BIOTECHNOLOGYINSECT PROTECTION
HERBICIDE TOLERANCEDROUGHT TOLERANCE
IMPROVED YIELD POTENTIAL
CROP PROTECCTIONAG BIOLOGICALS
SEED TREATMENTS
20
THANK YOU!david.i.gustafson@monsanto.com
Recommended