Climate Impacts on Agriculture

David I Gustafson, Ph.D.Senior FellowEnvironmental & Ag Policy Modeling Lead

Monsanto Company

Crystal City, VA24 February 2012

Outline

• Background – Ag in the spotlight• US National Climate Assessment (NCA)

– New process for the 2013 NCA report– Impacts on crops and livestock

• Comment on a critical policy need

Agriculture is in the Global Spotlight

?

“Like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations [sic]” – Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (the movie)

CHAPTER 11 18 The nations were angry; and Your wrath has come. The time has come for judging the dead, and for rewarding Your servants the prophets and Your saints and those who reverence Your Name, both small and great – and for destroying those who destroy the earth. CHAPTER 16 Then I heard a loud voice from the temple saying to the seven angels, “Go, pour out the seven bowls of God’s wrath on the earth.” 2 The first angel went and poured out his bowl on the land, and ugly and painful sores broke out on the people who had the mark of the beast and worshiped his image. 3 The second angel pouted out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died. 4 The third angel poured out his bowl on the rivers and springs of water, and they became blood. 8 The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and sun was given power to scorch people with fire. 9 They were seared by intense heat and they cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him.

The time has come … for destroying those who destroy the earth.

… every living thing in the sea died.

They were seared by intense heat …

……

Painting by McKendree Robbins Long, Sr.

US Global Change Research Program

Congressional Mandate:“To provide for development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States Research Program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”

Global Change Research Act (1990), § 106

• …not less frequently than every 4 years, the

Council… shall prepare… an assessment which –– integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program

and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such

findings;

– analyzes the effects of global change on the natural

environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and

water resources, transportation, human health and welfare,

human social systems, and biological diversity; and

– analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced

and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to

100 years.

Previous National Climate Assessments

Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Global Climate Change Impacts

in the United States (2009)

Target date for next NCA: 2013

http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/

What’s new for the 2013 NCA?

• Sustainable process with multiple products over time• New topics, cross-sectoral studies• Consistent national matrix of indicators• Central coordination, multiple partners, distributed

process• Regional and sectoral networks building assessment

capacity• Recognizes international context• Engagement and communications focus• Web-based data and tools for decision support• Process workshops to establish methodologies

NCADAC: National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee

• 60 member federal advisory committee, including 45 non-federal members and 16 federal ex-officio representatives– Chair: Jerry Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory– Vice Chairs: T.C. Richmond, Van Ness Feldman GordonDerr, and

Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University– 13 member Executive Secretariat

• Wide variety of expertise and perspectives• Providing advice on both the 2013 Report AND on the

ongoing process• 62 Convening Lead Authors and 180 Lead Authors have

been named for 30 chapters; will be announced shortly

NCADAC Executive Secretariat

• Jerry Melillo, ChairMarine Biological Laboratory

• Terese Richmond, Vice-ChairVan Ness Feldman Gordon Derr, LLP

• Gary Yohe, Vice-ChairWesleyan University

• James Buizer University of Arizona

• David GustafsonMonsanto Company

• Sharon HaysComputer Sciences Corporation

• Thomas KarlSubcommittee on Global Change Research

• Jo-Ann LeongHawaii Institute of Marine Biology and Oregon State University

• Susanne MoserSusanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University

• Richard MossUniversity of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

• Lindene PattonZurich Financial Services

• Andrew RosenbergUniversity of New Hampshire, Conservation International

• Donald Wuebbles University of Illinois

2013 Report Production Timeline

Expressions of Interest

Oct 1, 2011

DevelopmentOf technical input

Mar 1, 2012

Author teams incorporate Technical Input and other sources , draft chapters and

suggest downstream products and processes to the NCADAC

O

May 1 2012

CLAs and editors synthesize chapters and NCADAC reviews

full document

Oct 1 2012

SA N D OSA N DJ F M A M J J

NRC , Agency,

and Public review CLAs and

NCADAC revise draft

OSA N DJ F M A M J J

NRC

Jan 1 2013

Feb 1

Jul 1

Agency SIGN OFF Web and

summary layout and printing

NCADAC to consider revisions (from agencies and EOP) and approve report

2nd NRC Review: Were comments adequately addressed?

Oct 1 2013

Request to NRC and USGCRP agencies to hear preliminary presentations of potential key conclusions to identify potential “show-stoppers” (July, 2012)

CLA mtg. (Jan. 2012)

Aug 1 2012

Jun1

Rough layout

Executive Office of the President comments and adopts

Deadline for new information included in draft report(July 31, 2012)

Add information only in response to review comments (deadline: April 30, 2013)

Draft chapters due (June 1, 2012)

Document comments, and review editors to judge adequacy of responses (iterative process)

Latest Climate News: Hot, Wet & Dry

• 2010 was wettest year on record and tied with 1998 as the hottest

• Past Oklahoma summer (Jun-Aug, 2011) was hottest ever for any US

state, other states with record hot 2011 summers: LA, NM, TX

– Severe, yield-destroying drought throughout these states

• Historic flooding for many regions around the world:

– Australia and Brazil (Jan 2011), US (Apr-Sep 2011), Pakistan (Jul 2010)

• Russia’s summer 2010 heat-wave sparked numerous fires, doubled the

daily death-rate in Moscow (to 700/day), cut the wheat harvest by 38%,

and caused Russia’s President Medvedev to proclaim:

“What's happening with the planet's climate

right now needs to be a wake-up call to all of us

to take a more energetic approach to countering

the global changes to the climate.”

• This US winter (2011/12) exceptionally mildMoscow residents (August 2010)

Lev Maslov/AFP/Getty Images

1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

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No

rth

ern

Hem

isp

her

e L

and

War

m-

ing

(°F

)N Hemisphere Surface Warming is at Upper End of

IPCC† Model Forecasts

northern hemisphere land surface monthly temperatures

IPCCexpected

IPCC95% upperbound

quad

ratic

fit

moving average (7 yr)

Mt. Pinatubo eruption

January 2007 was first anomaly > 4°F

IPCC95% lowerbound

datum is 20th century mean

Accelerationsince late 1960’s

March 2008was the second

data source: NOAA (2011)

†Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Prospects for Mitigation are Increasingly Dim

• Warming due to human GHG’s already equals a 2% increase in solar radiation– Like moving earth million miles closer to sun– Sunspot-related variations are only 0.1%

• Atmospheric CO2 now approaching 390 ppm and continues to accelerate– No effective GHG agreements in view– Record jump (8%) in emissions in 2010

• Agriculture will be forced to deal with intensifying climate change impacts– Increasing heat stress– More moisture stress (too dry & too wet)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Fo

rcin

g R

ela

tive t

o t

he Y

ear

1750 (

W/m2

)

Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxide Methane Man-Made GHG

Planting Zone Shifts Already Observed

National Arbor Day Foundation Plant Hardiness Zone Map published in 2006

© 2012 National Wildlife Federation

Current Climate Trends in the Great Plains

• Trending warmer and wetter, with recurring drought• Rate of change somewhat faster in the North

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300

3

6

9

12

15

18

T (

°C)

& P

(cm

)

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300

3

6

9

12

15

18

T (

°C)

& P

(cm

)

North (NE, ND, SD)Average annual temperatures (°C)Average monthly precipitation (cm)

South (KS, OK, TX)Average annual temperatures (°C)Average monthly precipitation (cm)

solid lines are 7 yr meansdashed lines are linear fits to 40 year trend

solid lines are 7 yr meansdashed lines are linear fits to 40 year trend

T

T

P

P

Data Source: NOAA NCDC, state-composites

• Forage quality generally declines with increasing CO2

• Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes likely to reduce livestock productivity

Predicted Livestock Impacts

US Yields Keeping Pace with Current Warming

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300

50100150200250300

bu

/A

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300

500

1000

1500

lb/A

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300

25

50

75

bu

/A

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 203045

50

55

60

65

°F

Corn Cotton

Soybeans

smooth line is 7 yr mean

smooth line is 7 yr mean

smooth line is 7 yr mean

observed gain is 1.63% per year

observed gain is 1.29% per year

observed gain is 1.53% per year

cotton: 0.35°F/decadesoybeans: 0.34°F/decade

corn: 0.36°F/decade

Mean annual temperatures in US cropping regionsData Source: NOAA NCDC, state-composites, weighted by crop productionTrend-Lines: 1970-2010 (linear fits)

Mean reported US crop yields by yearData Source: USDA NASSTrend-Lines: 1970-2010 (exponential fits)

US Corn Yields Show Increased Resilience

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201060708090

100110120130140150160170180

ActualTrend

Yiel

d (b

u/A

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201060708090

100110120130140150160170180

ActualTrend

Yiel

d (b

u/A

)

1970-1996: CV = 11.4%

1997-2011: CV = 4.8%

Data Source: USDA NASS

Integrated Modeling: Predicting Future Impacts

Lobell et al., 2011

Climate change and supply Nitrogen access and fate

Liu et al., 2010

Deforestation and biodiversity

Barona et al., 2010

Water supply and balance

Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011

Integrated Models: link component models simulating climate, crop growth, economic, & environmental processes

(underlying science/data often flawed & unverifiable)

Critical Modeling Policy Need• Rampant increase in new regulatory uses of

Integrated Modeling– Urgent need for transparency & standardization– Improvement of model components– Quality and quantity of input data– Rigorous verification & validation– Follow recent NRC report guidance

Thank you!

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