Dave GustafsonSenior Fellow

Monsanto

8 November 2013Third Lemann Dialogue

Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil

coming to a planet near you

- Farming

FARMING

“X-Farming”

• What is it?– Farming to meet rapidly accelerating

demand, within an increasingly extreme environment

• Advances in climate science are clarifying likely future scenarios– Extreme weather makes farming

harder• Challenges and opportunities• Conclusions

2

FARMING

•Climate change & impacts on ecosystems•Extreme

weather events

•Reduced research spending

•Agricultural sustainability

•Decreased food security

•Depletion of natural

resources•Food and

water safety

•Growing world population•Supply/Demand

imbalance•Nutrition,

health, & well-being

Farming is at the Center of Multiple Global Megatrends

3

FARMING

Rapidly Accelerating Global Grain Demand

Source: IHS Global Insights, Agriculture Division

30%INCREASE IN

MEAT CONSUMPTION

By 2030…

1.4 B MORE

PEOPLE2000 2010 2015 2020 20300

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Corn Wheat Soybeans CottonRice

GLOBAL GRAIN DEMAND (MMT)

+102%

+40%

+76%

+28%+125%

2X Global GDP

4

FARMING

Monsanto Fellow Assessments

Andrew LeakeyBarry Goodwin

Cynthia RosenzweigDonald OrtMark Taylor

Nicholas PiggottSteve Schneider

Steve LongThomas Zacharias

Don WuebblesLewis Ziska

Mike CastellanoDavid LobellJohn Trumble

XB Yang

Climate Change Symposium (2007) Climate Science Workshop (2013)

• Climate change is happening and will impact agriculture

• Current business model is secure– Well positioned for expected

rate of change– MON technologies helping with

adaptation and mitigation• Sustainability should become

an even greater focus for MON

• Evidence for accelerating climate change has grown since 2007

• Climate is changing faster than the more conservative model predictions– Reinforces previous conclusions,

but near-term impacts greater than previously concluded

• Little known about how climate change will impact pests & disease 5

FARMING

Temperatures are Increasing

• All temperature measures agree surface warming is underway

• Unanimous corroborative data (glaciers, migration dates, etc.)

• Unprecedented rate of warming began in late 1960’s, linked by modeling to man-made causes

Complete summertime melt of Arctic ice cap now imminent

US Climate Change Science Program Report (27 May 2008)

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FARMING

Increases in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather

• Floods• Drought• Heat waves• Wind-storms• Severe t-storms• Tropical cyclones

Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012)

Des Moines (2008)

Pakistan (2010) Texas (2011)

St. Louis (May 31, 2013)

St. Louis (April 10, 2013)

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FARMING

8

GHG Concentrations Linked to World Population Growth

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Year

Wo

rld

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illi

on

s)

Fastest growth occurred in 1962 (doubling time of 32 years)

FARMING

9

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Fo

rcin

g R

ela

tive t

o t

he Y

ear

1750 (

W/m2

)

Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxide Methane Man-Made GHG

GHG Forcing, Significance

source: NOAA GHG Inventory

Direct forcing only, minor GHG gases not shown (CFC’s etc.)

This amount of addedradiational forcing already

equates to a nearly 2% increaseof absorbed solar radiation. That’slike moving the earth a million milescloser to the sun. Natural changesin solar intensity (due to sunspot

activity, etc.) are on theorder of 0.1%.

FARMING

10

180

210

240

270

300

-420000 -350000 -280000 -210000 -140000 -70000 0

Years BCE

Atm

os

ph

eri

c C

arb

on

Dio

xid

e (

pp

mv)

3

0

-3

-6

-9

Glo

ba

l T

em

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(°F

)

T (°F)

CO2

420 350 280 210 140 70 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

180

210

240

270

300

-420000 -350000 -280000 -210000 -140000 -70000 0

Years BCE

Atm

os

ph

eri

c C

arb

on

Dio

xid

e (

pp

mv)

3

0

-3

-6

-9

Glo

ba

l T

em

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(°F

)

T (°F)

CO2

420 350 280 210 140 70 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

Climate Cycling of the Late Pleistocene (glaciation events)

source: Vostok ice cores

agriculturedeveloped

420 350 280 210 140 70 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

These swings are dueto “Milankovitch” orbitalforcings of a very smallmagnitude (<0.5 W/m2)

FARMING

Future Climate Assessment: Adaptation in Ag is Essential

Challenge of increasing yields of key crops to support global food demand becomes more difficult with climate change.

Significantly expanded research programs, as well as adoption of agriculture technology, are needed to drive yield gains in staple

crops.

Impact of immediate mitigation

Current trajectory

Small changes in Earth’s average temperature have

significant impact

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FARMING

Crop Impacts Globally

Africa suffers most, due to drought, low

adaptive capacity

Asian coastal systems

vulnerable, especially mega-

deltas

Severe drought

Heat and drought stress

during the summer (esp.

E, S)

Eastern Amazonia becomes a

savanna, stress on some crops, but temperate-

zone soy is helped

Crops initially benefit, but those in

drought-stressed areas projected to

decline

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FARMING

Impacts of Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

China: Wheat2011 Drought

South Africa: Corn2011 floods

Sri Lanka: Rice

2011 Cyclones

Brazil : Soybean, Corn

2008 Drought

Mexico : White Corn

2009 Drought2011 Freeze

Australia: Wheat2006 DroughtArgentina: Soybean,

Corn2008 Drought

Paraguay: Soybean2008 Drought

Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine: Wheat

2010 Drought and Heat Wave

Colombia: livestock2010 Flood

13

United States: Corn, Soy

2012 Drought

Source: World Bank

Corn

Wheat

13

FARMING

Temperature Sensitivity of Corn & Soy

• Panel analysis of US rain-fed corn and soybean yields identify strong role of time above 29°C (~84 °F)

source: Schlenker and Roberts, PNAS (2009) 14

FARMING

Predicted Livestock Impacts

• Forage quality generally declines with increasing CO2

• Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes likely to reduce livestockproductivity

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FARMING

Indirect Climate Impacts

Weeds Range and reproductivity increases Pathogen and insect host implications

Insects Lepidopteran and Coleopteran range expansion Insect-vectored mycotoxin increase Potential new pest targets (aphids, spider mites, etc.)Diseases Nematodes under hot dry conditions Foliar and stalk diseases under hot and wet conditionsSoil HealthChanges in micronutrient content due to droughts

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FARMING

Staple Crop Yield Gains Vary with Level of Investment

Global rates of yield gain (1961-2011), based on data available from FAOSTAT

Rate Needed to Double Yields by 2050

PotatoesSorghum

Sugar caneCassava

MilletPulses

Sweet PotatoesWheat

RiceSoybeans

Maize

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Annual Rate of Yield Gain (%)

Impact of Reducing Food Wastage by

30%

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FARMING

Maize Yield Gaps Vary with Level of Ag Intensification

source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press) 18

FARMING

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

High Medium Low

MT/HA

Country Level of Intensification

Breeding Trials

National Averages

Ag Intensification Needed to Reduce Maize Yield Gaps

Individual Country Averages

19source: Gustafson, et al., Climate adaptation imperatives (in press)

FARMING

New Technology Combinations are Needed to Successfully Adapt

AGRONOMIC SOLUTIONSPRECISION AGRICULTURE

INCORPORATION OF I.T. SOLUTIONS, COVER CROPS

NEW HYBRIDS/VARIETIES

GERMPLASM IS THE CENTERPIECE OF PERFORMANCE

BREEDING TRAITSDISEASE, NEMATODE AND INSECT

PROTECTION

BIOTECHNOLOGYINSECT PROTECTION

HERBICIDE TOLERANCEDROUGHT TOLERANCE

IMPROVED YIELD POTENTIAL

CROP PROTECCTIONAG BIOLOGICALS

SEED TREATMENTS

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THANK YOU!david.i.gustafson@monsanto.com