Central Valley Water Transfers Southern California Water Dialogue Steven P. Hirsch Transfer &...

Central Valley Water Transfers

Southern California Water Dialogue

Steven P. HirschTransfer & Exchanges Program Manager

Metropolitan Water DistrictSeptember 28, 2005

Factors Affecting Transfer Needs Factors Affecting Transfer Needs – Service area demandsService area demands– Availability of member’s local suppliesAvailability of member’s local supplies– Availability of CRA and SWP suppliesAvailability of CRA and SWP supplies

Metropolitan Water DistrictMetropolitan Water District

Demands on Metropolitan

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,00010

0% 95%

89%

84%

79%

74%

68%

63%

58%

53%

47%

42%

37%

32%

26%

21%

16%

11% 5% 0%

Exceedence Probability

Acr

e-fe

et

Colorado River Aqueduct Supplies

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,00010

0% 95%

89%

84%

79%

74%

68%

63%

58%

53%

47%

42%

37%

32%

26%

21%

16%

11% 5% 0%

Exceedence Probability

Acr

e-fe

et

State Water Project Supplies

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,00010

0% 95%

89%

84%

79%

74%

68%

63%

58%

53%

47%

42%

37%

32%

26%

21%

16%

11% 5% 0%

Exceedence Probability

Acr

e-fe

et

Surplus/Shortage Outcomes

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,00010

0%

94%

88%

83%

78%

73%

68%

62%

57%

52%

47%

42%

36%

31%

26%

21%

16%

10% 5% 0%

Acr

e-fe

et

Exceedence Probability

Metropolitan’s Storage Capacity

Lake MathewsLake Skinner

Desert /Desert /CoachellaCoachella

SemitropicSemitropicCastaic & PerrisCastaic & Perris

No. Las PosasNo. Las PosasArvinArvin

EdisonEdison

DiamondDiamondValley LakeValley Lake

YearYear’’9090 ’’9595 ’’0000 ’’0505

Millions A

cre-FeetM

illions Acre-Feet

1.0

2.0

3.0

San Bernardino ValleySan Bernardino Valley

North KernNorth Kern& Mojave Demo& Mojave Demo

Kern Delta Prop. 13 ProgramsKern Delta Prop. 13 Programs(start-up)(start-up)

Greater than Greater than 10x Increase10x Increase

Shortage ActionsShortage ActionsShortage StagesShortage StagesActionsActions

11 22 33 44 55 66 77

Public Affairs ProgramDVL Take

Take from Semitropic, Arvin-Ed.Cut REPL Deliveries

Contractual GW TakeTake from Monterey Res.

Extraordinary ConservationCall Water Transfer - Options Contracts

Buy Spot WaterAllocation Plan

Potential Simultaneous Actions

February Call 76,232 AF

March Call 49,998 AF

2003 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers2003 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers

May Call No call for water 20,000 AF

GCID Western CanalW.D.

RichvaleI.D.

Sac. ValleySettlementContractors

Placer CountyWater Agency

11 Districts146,230 AF

April Call w/ option to Extend to May Call

2005 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers2005 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers

GCID Western CanalW.D.

RichvaleI.D.

3 Districts125,000 AF

Value of a Late Call:Value of a Late Call:2005 Transfers2005 Transfers

Nor

Cal

pre

cipi

tatio

n (%

)N

orC

al p

reci

pita

tion

(%)

Average Northern California PrecipitationAverage Northern California Precipitation1921-2003 (Oct – Sept)1921-2003 (Oct – Sept)

020406080

100

January February March April

April 1 Initial Call Date

May 2 Second Call Date

Jan 15 Purchase Options

• Forego option?• Exercise option?• Extend option?

• Forego option?• Exercise option?

May

Value of a Late Call (Con’t)

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,00010

0%

94%

88%

83%

78%

73%

68%

62%

57%

52%

47%

42%

36%

31%

26%

21%

16%

10% 5% 0%

Acr

e-fe

et

Exceedence Probability

March 2005March 2005

February 2005February 2005

October/November 2004October/November 2004

Summary

MWD’s storage and conservation investments reduce need for transfers

Transfers are not needed every year Transfers = insurance against drought Prefer options with late call dates Transfers are not “risk free” Transfers require hard work