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Demands on Metropolitan
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Central Valley Water Transfers
Southern California Water Dialogue
Steven P. HirschTransfer & Exchanges Program Manager
Metropolitan Water DistrictSeptember 28, 2005
Factors Affecting Transfer Needs Factors Affecting Transfer Needs – Service area demandsService area demands– Availability of member’s local suppliesAvailability of member’s local supplies– Availability of CRA and SWP suppliesAvailability of CRA and SWP supplies
Metropolitan Water DistrictMetropolitan Water District
Demands on Metropolitan
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,00010
0% 95%
89%
84%
79%
74%
68%
63%
58%
53%
47%
42%
37%
32%
26%
21%
16%
11% 5% 0%
Exceedence Probability
Acr
e-fe
et
Colorado River Aqueduct Supplies
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,00010
0% 95%
89%
84%
79%
74%
68%
63%
58%
53%
47%
42%
37%
32%
26%
21%
16%
11% 5% 0%
Exceedence Probability
Acr
e-fe
et
State Water Project Supplies
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,00010
0% 95%
89%
84%
79%
74%
68%
63%
58%
53%
47%
42%
37%
32%
26%
21%
16%
11% 5% 0%
Exceedence Probability
Acr
e-fe
et
Surplus/Shortage Outcomes
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,00010
0%
94%
88%
83%
78%
73%
68%
62%
57%
52%
47%
42%
36%
31%
26%
21%
16%
10% 5% 0%
Acr
e-fe
et
Exceedence Probability
Metropolitan’s Storage Capacity
Lake MathewsLake Skinner
Desert /Desert /CoachellaCoachella
SemitropicSemitropicCastaic & PerrisCastaic & Perris
No. Las PosasNo. Las PosasArvinArvin
EdisonEdison
DiamondDiamondValley LakeValley Lake
YearYear’’9090 ’’9595 ’’0000 ’’0505
Millions A
cre-FeetM
illions Acre-Feet
1.0
2.0
3.0
San Bernardino ValleySan Bernardino Valley
North KernNorth Kern& Mojave Demo& Mojave Demo
Kern Delta Prop. 13 ProgramsKern Delta Prop. 13 Programs(start-up)(start-up)
Greater than Greater than 10x Increase10x Increase
Shortage ActionsShortage ActionsShortage StagesShortage StagesActionsActions
11 22 33 44 55 66 77
Public Affairs ProgramDVL Take
Take from Semitropic, Arvin-Ed.Cut REPL Deliveries
Contractual GW TakeTake from Monterey Res.
Extraordinary ConservationCall Water Transfer - Options Contracts
Buy Spot WaterAllocation Plan
Potential Simultaneous Actions
February Call 76,232 AF
March Call 49,998 AF
2003 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers2003 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers
May Call No call for water 20,000 AF
GCID Western CanalW.D.
RichvaleI.D.
Sac. ValleySettlementContractors
Placer CountyWater Agency
11 Districts146,230 AF
April Call w/ option to Extend to May Call
2005 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers2005 Sacramento Valley Water Transfers
GCID Western CanalW.D.
RichvaleI.D.
3 Districts125,000 AF
Value of a Late Call:Value of a Late Call:2005 Transfers2005 Transfers
Nor
Cal
pre
cipi
tatio
n (%
)N
orC
al p
reci
pita
tion
(%)
Average Northern California PrecipitationAverage Northern California Precipitation1921-2003 (Oct – Sept)1921-2003 (Oct – Sept)
020406080
100
January February March April
April 1 Initial Call Date
May 2 Second Call Date
Jan 15 Purchase Options
• Forego option?• Exercise option?• Extend option?
• Forego option?• Exercise option?
May
Value of a Late Call (Con’t)
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,00010
0%
94%
88%
83%
78%
73%
68%
62%
57%
52%
47%
42%
36%
31%
26%
21%
16%
10% 5% 0%
Acr
e-fe
et
Exceedence Probability
March 2005March 2005
February 2005February 2005
October/November 2004October/November 2004
Summary
MWD’s storage and conservation investments reduce need for transfers
Transfers are not needed every year Transfers = insurance against drought Prefer options with late call dates Transfers are not “risk free” Transfers require hard work