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Big Wind Study. Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011. Purpose of Study. Estimate the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for NW wind turbines Quantify the relationship between installed wind generation and light-load-hour overgeneration - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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BIG WIND STUDY
Resource Adequacy Technical Committee MeetingApril 6, 2011
April 6, 2011 2
Purpose of Study1. Estimate the Effective Load Carrying
Capability (ELCC) for NW wind turbines2. Quantify the relationship between
installed wind generation and light-load-hour overgeneration
3. Examine the effects of wind generation on thermal resource dispatch
April 6, 2011 3
Caveats Results are not for distribution BiOp data needs updating (again!) Still working on hydro shaping logic in
GENESYS Used constant DEC requirements for all
studies Ran limited number of games with
sequential hydro, lockstep temperature and random wind
April 6, 2011 4
Wind ELCC Assumptions 2015 operating year Existing resources Expected new conservation (short-term model) Ran Dec-Feb and Jul-Sep only Base case
Removed all wind Calculated total annual average curtailment per game
Study cases Added 200 MWa of shaped load Added increments of wind capacity until the total annual
average curtailment per game equaled that in the base Repeated above with greater amounts of load
April 6, 2011 5
Wind ELCC Results (200 MWa)
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
Average Load/Wind Capacity (%)
Tota
l Avg
Cur
tailm
ent
(MW
-hr
s)
Base Case
200 MWa Load, 500 MW Wind
200 MWa Load, 1000 MW Wind
ELCC = 26.4%
April 6, 2011 6
Wind ELCC ResultsAverage Inc
Load Inc (MWa) Wind Inc (MW) ELCC (%) ELCC (%)200 759 26.4 26.4400 1746 22.9 19.5600 2762 21.7 17.0800 3963 20.2 14.0
1000 5746 17.4 8.41200 7939 15.1 3.9
April 6, 2011 7
Wind ELCC Results
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 90000%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Average
Installed Wind Capacity (MW)
Win
d EL
CC (%
)
Current NW WindAbout 3100 MW
April 6, 2011 8
Overgeneration Study Assumptions
210 games, sequential hydro, lockstep thermal and random wind (screening studies)
2015 regional loads Existing resources 2015 Power Plan conservation (1,200
MWa) No thermal ramping logic (results in lower
overgeneration values) Wind was added with no additional load
April 6, 2011 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Average Overgeneration Energy by Month
Installed Wind (GW)
Ove
rgen
erat
ion
(GW
-HR
S)
April 6, 2011 10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Overgeneration in Average Megawatts(averaged over all hours of the month)
Installed Wind (GW)
Ove
rgen
erat
ion
(MW
a)
April 6, 2011 11
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec, OctNov
Highest Hour Overgeneration by Month
Installed Wind (GW)
Ove
rgen
erat
ion
(MW
-HR
S)
April 6, 2011 12
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Average Monthly DispatchBoardman
030006000
MW
a
Wind
April 6, 2011 13
1 41 81 1211612012412813213614014414815215616016416817210
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Aggregate Hourly Dispatch for MayNo Wind Case
DemandCurtThermalPurchHydroWind
Hour of Month
Meg
awat
ts
April 6, 2011 14
1 41 81 121161201241281321361401441481521561601641681721-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Aggregate Hourly Dispatch for May3000 MW Wind Case
DemandCurtThermalPurchHydroWind
Hour of Month
Meg
awat
ts
April 6, 2011 15
1 41 81 121161201241281321361401441481521561601641681721-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Aggregate Hourly Dispatch for May6000 MW Wind Case
DemandCurtThermalPurchHydroWind
Hour of Month
Meg
awat
ts
April 6, 2011 16
Next Steps Update BiOp data For overgeneration study, run scenarios
with no thermal cycling – to assess worst case magnitude
Continue to review hydro shaping logic Explore adding ramping logic for thermals
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