Aviation and Climate Change Karsten Krause

Aviationand

Climate Change

Karsten Karsten KrauseKrause

www.t-e.nuwww.t-e.nu

International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation

European Federation for Transport & Environment

• AustriaAustria• BelgiumBelgium• Czech & Slovak RepCzech & Slovak Rep• DenmarkDenmark• EstoniaEstonia• FinlandFinland• FranceFrance• GermanyGermany• GreeceGreece• HungaryHungary• Netherlands Netherlands • NorwayNorway• PolandPoland• PortugalPortugal• RomaniaRomania• SloveniaSlovenia• SpainSpain• SwedenSweden• SwitzerlandSwitzerland• UKUK

International Coalition for Sustainable AviationInternational Coalition for Sustainable Aviation

Sustainable Transport ?Sustainable Transport ?

1.) Traffic Prevention1.) Traffic Prevention

2.) Modal Shift2.) Modal Shift

3.) Modal 3.) Modal OptimisationOptimisation

Contents of the PresentationContents of the Presentation

• Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

• Impact on Climate ChangeImpact on Climate Change

• International CooperationInternational Cooperation

• Unilateral ActionUnilateral Action

• Conclusions Conclusions

Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

• Average Growth Rate of the Global Average Growth Rate of the Global Market: Market: about 5 % about 5 %

• Growth in Europe 2003: + 3,6 %Growth in Europe 2003: + 3,6 %

• Highest growth rates: Highest growth rates: leisure tripsleisure trips

• Growth of Low-cost airlines in Europe Growth of Low-cost airlines in Europe until 2010: + 20 % anually until 2010: + 20 % anually

• Share of passengers that have Share of passengers that have been attracted to fly by low been attracted to fly by low ticket prices: 59 %ticket prices: 59 %

Subsidised Growth Subsidised Growth

• Tax exemptions for ticket sales, Tax exemptions for ticket sales, kerosene… kerosene…

• Public investment and financial supportPublic investment and financial support

• No internalisation of external costs of No internalisation of external costs of aviation (health impact, environment)aviation (health impact, environment)

• (…)(…)

Aviation and Climate Change Aviation and Climate Change

1.1. Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

2.2. Impact on Climate ChangeImpact on Climate Change

3.3. International CooperationInternational Cooperation

4.4. Unilateral ActionUnilateral Action

5.5. Conclusions Conclusions

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Impact on Climate Change: Impact on Climate Change: • Global warming from aviation 1992: 3.5 Global warming from aviation 1992: 3.5

%%• Increase until 2050: Increase until 2050: 2.6 to 11 times2.6 to 11 times

Warming comes from:Warming comes from:• CO2 ECO2 Emissions missions • Ozone formation (Ozone formation (NOxNOx))• ContrailsContrails• Cirrus cloudsCirrus clouds

Formation of Contrails and Cirrus Formation of Contrails and Cirrus CloudsClouds

Reduce Total Radiative Forcing Reduce Total Radiative Forcing from Aviation from Aviation

• Avoiding air traffic Avoiding air traffic

• Optimising aircraft operation and air Optimising aircraft operation and air controlcontrol

• Phasing-out old and inefficient aircraftsPhasing-out old and inefficient aircrafts

• Offsets in other sectorsOffsets in other sectors

Aviation and Climate Change Aviation and Climate Change

1.1. Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

2.2. Impact on Climate ChangeImpact on Climate Change

3.3. International CooperationInternational Cooperation

4.4. Unilateral ActionUnilateral Action

5.5. Conclusions Conclusions

ICAO and Climate ChangeICAO and Climate Change

Request from UNFCCC (1997 Kyoto Request from UNFCCC (1997 Kyoto Protocol) Protocol)

• Article 2.2 requires Annex I States (States with Article 2.2 requires Annex I States (States with reduction or limitation targets) to pursue reduction or limitation targets) to pursue limitation or reduction of greenhouse gases limitation or reduction of greenhouse gases through cooperation with the ICAOthrough cooperation with the ICAO

• Open Question: How to allocate international Open Question: How to allocate international emissionsemissions

• ICAO reports regularly to the UNFCCCICAO reports regularly to the UNFCCC

Committee on Aviation Environmental Committee on Aviation Environmental ProtectionProtection

• CAEP reports are presented to the ICAO CouncilCAEP reports are presented to the ICAO Council• Technical Discussions and Policy StatementsTechnical Discussions and Policy Statements• Has no regulatory functionHas no regulatory function

CAEP/6CAEP/6

• February 2004February 2004

• Conclude 6 years (3+3) of work of 5 technical Conclude 6 years (3+3) of work of 5 technical working working groupsgroups

• Input to CAEP/6:Input to CAEP/6: study on CO2 emission study on CO2 emission tradingtrading

guidance on CO2 chargesguidance on CO2 chargesguidance on voluntary guidance on voluntary

agreementsagreements

• Future CAEP work:Future CAEP work: further studies and further studies and guidanceguidance

Perspectives on Perspectives on CAEP/ICAO ProgressCAEP/ICAO Progress

• CAEP does important work but the outcomes CAEP does important work but the outcomes are are not sufficient not sufficient

• SlooooowSlooooow

• Divergent interests within the organisation Divergent interests within the organisation

• ICAO is used as the standard excuse ICAO is used as the standard excuse to postpone action to reduce aviation to postpone action to reduce aviation emission on European or national emission on European or national levellevel

Way forward…Way forward…

• The international aviation industry needs an The international aviation industry needs an emission redction targetemission redction target

• ICAO needs a timeframe to propose a policy ICAO needs a timeframe to propose a policy strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissionsemissions

• SBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the SBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the question of allocationsquestion of allocations

• Coexistence of international and unilateral Coexistence of international and unilateral policy instruments policy instruments

Aviation and Climate Change Aviation and Climate Change

1.1. Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

2.2. Impact on Climate ChangeImpact on Climate Change

3.3. International CooperationInternational Cooperation

4.4. Unilateral ActionUnilateral Action

5.5. Conclusions Conclusions

Key Player: The European Key Player: The European UnionUnion

• EU’s commitment reduce greenhouse gas EU’s commitment reduce greenhouse gas emissionsemissions

• EU should play a stronger role in ICAOEU should play a stronger role in ICAO

• EU has to phase-out aviation subsidies EU has to phase-out aviation subsidies

• EU could introduce a European aviation EU could introduce a European aviation charge or an emission trading schemecharge or an emission trading scheme

European Environmental European Environmental Aviation Aviation ChargeCharge

• Various studies have proved the operabilityVarious studies have proved the operabilityof a charge (i.e. emission per kilometre) of a charge (i.e. emission per kilometre)

• Possible to extend it to outside Europe, based Possible to extend it to outside Europe, based on bilateral agreementson bilateral agreements

• Focus should be on all greenhouse gas Focus should be on all greenhouse gas emissions emissions

• European Commission promised European Commission promised a Directive proposal by 2001a Directive proposal by 2001

European Aviation Emission European Aviation Emission Trading Trading

• European CO2 trading for stationary sources:European CO2 trading for stationary sources:warm-up phase:warm-up phase: 2005 – 2007 2005 – 2007 Kyoto phase Kyoto phase 2008 – 20122008 – 2012

• Review of the trading directive by 31 December Review of the trading directive by 31 December 2004: Opportunity to integrate aviation 2004: Opportunity to integrate aviation emissionsemissions

• Focus on all greenhouse gas emissionsFocus on all greenhouse gas emissions

• Cap and trade approach Cap and trade approach

Conclusion

….. Aviation needs an absolute target for its greenhouse gas emissions

….. CAEP requires a clear indication, by when the work on policy instruments

has to be finalised.

….. SBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the issue of allocation of

emissions from bunker fuels

….. Emission trading and emission charges could be introduced. TheEuropean Union and individual states

must not wait on CAEP or ICAO

Thank you for your attention !

further information:

www.t-e.nuorkarsten.krause@t-e.nu