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2012 Federal Budget Outlook. NIHB January 24, 2012 Joan Huffer Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Federal Debt Under Current Policies is Unsustainable. cbpp.org. Tax Cuts, Wars Account for Half of Public Debt by 2019. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2012 Federal Budget Outlook
NIHB
January 24, 2012
Joan Huffer
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
1
Federal Debt Under Current Policies is
Unsustainable
cbpp.org04/22/23 2NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Tax Cuts, Wars Account for Half of Public Debt
by 2019
04/22/23 3
Ryan plan would get two-thirds of cuts from programs
for low- and moderate-income people
4Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY2012 Budget Resolution
1. Cuts discretionary spending by $1 trillion over 10 years through caps on discretionary spending.
2. Set up bipartisan, bicameral Joint Select Committee to identify additional $1.5 trillion in savings. Failed to reach agreement.
3. $1.2 trillion in across-the-board cuts (sequestration) begins January 2013 unless Congress acts.
Deficit Reduction Under the Budget
Control Act
04/22/23 5 cbpp.org
Supercommittee Failure Triggers Sequestration
04/22/23 6
Sequestration Means Deep Cuts Throughout
Budget
04/22/23 7
Sequestration will be on TOP of
Discretionary Caps
04/22/23 8
$1.2 trillion across-the-board spending cuts will not affect:• Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program• Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Food Stamps)• Child Care Entitlements (mandatory) • Child Nutrition• Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), ACA
Premium Credits [but NOT cost-sharing subsidies]• Supplemental Security Income (SSI) • Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF)
04/22/23 9
Core Low-Income Entitlement Programs
Exempt from Sequestration
Short-term threats
• UI benefits, weeks could be cut back• Cuts to health care programs to pay for SGR• Shielding defense from sequestration without
revenue savings could lead to:- Loss of exemption for some low-income
programs- Increased cuts to NDD
10
Fiscal Policies Collide at End of
2012
11
• 2001-2010 tax cuts expire at end of 2012
• $1.2 trillion sequestration scheduled to begin in January 2013
• Debt ceiling may need to be raised by early 2013
• FY2013 Appropriations bills may or may not be completed
Principles for Deficit Reduction
cbpp.org
• Balance primary budget, stabilize debt to GDP.
• Need a balanced approach: everything must be on the table
• Should not increase poverty or inequality
• Boost economy in short-run
04/22/23
Past Deficit-Reduction Packages Included Large
Revenue Increases
13
Taxes Do Not Necessarily Harm the Economy or Cost
Jobs
14
Helpful Resources
• Office of Management & Budget (OMB)– www.whitehouse.gov/omb
• U.S. Senate Budget Committee– http://budget.senate.gov
• U.S. House Budget Committee– http://budget.house.gov
• Congressional Budget Office (CBO)– www.cbo.gov
• THOMAS – Library of Congress– http://thomas.loc.gov
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities– www.cbpp.org
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