1 Internet in 2035 Vint Cerf May 2008. 2 Regional Internet Statistics - 2008 RegionInternet...

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Internet in 2035

Vint Cerf

May 2008

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Regional Internet Statistics - 2008

Region Internet Population

% penetration

Asia 510.5 Mil. 13.7 %

Europe 348.1 Mil. 43.4 %

North Am. 238.0 Mil. 71.1%

LATAM/C 126.2 Mil. 22.2 %

Mid-East 33.5 Mil. 17.4 %

Oceania 19.2 Mil. 57.1 %

Africa 44.4 Mil. 4.7 %

TOTAL 1,320 Mil. 20.0 %

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Population Projections

www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

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Projections - World Population

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Population Projections - World

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Population projections - Europe

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Population Projection - Asia

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Projections 2035

Global Warming and oil/water shortages - serious consequences

population demographics - coastal areas flooding

Water shortages - water tankers

Desalinization - side effects from salt??

IT to substitute for transportation? (virtual meetings)

IT to minimize transportation (efficient scheduling)

Energy production/consumption (IT a big consumer)

Nuclear vs Ethanol, Wind, Solar, Geo-thermal

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Internet Projections - 2035

Internet at age 52 (b. 1983)

World Population - 8.12 Billion

Internet Penetration - 70% (world average)

Note: >100% in developed countries

Device Penetration - 60 Billion (O(10) devices/person)

IPv6 only (IPv4 may lurk in dark corridors)

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Internet - Global Statistics 2035

(approx. 6 Billion Broadband Terminations plus 10 B mobiles and >12 Billion PCs)

10 Billion Hosts (Wikipedia 2035)

5.7 Billion Users (Wikipedia 2035)

542 Million Hosts

(ISC Jan 2008)

1,320 Million Users(InternetWorldStats.com,

December 30,2007)

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Information Ecology

•Wired and Wireless Internet Infrastructure

•Online business infrastructure – Intra-/Inter-corporate and government-business transactions

– Cloud Computing (Virtualization and Computational Mobility)

– Collaboration in virtual environments

– Seamless joining of real and virtual environments

• Convergence of digital objects and processes (discovery and rendezvous)

• Statewide (National?) Databases

– INSTEDD anecdote

– Statistical data mining for planning and projections

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Commercial Ecology - 2035

Population demographics (US aging population, ethnic diversity)

Competition with India, China, Europe

US GDP about 50% or less than Asia?

Production rate of scientists, engineers - 10% or less?

a) What are the REAL numbers?

b) We aren’t going to beat them on the numbers.

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Physical Infrastructure

Energy and Water ecology

Minimization, re-utilization, local production

Information and Transportation

Trade-offs, Real-Time optimizations

Smart Road Systems (pilotless cars?)

Serious electric trains? (TGV, Shinkansen)

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Socio-Economic Effects of Internet - 2035

•Internet transports and display print, video, audio media

•Internet group interaction - political actions, polling, marketplaces

•Information Consumers are the Producers – Blogging, YouTube/Google Video, Personal Web Pages, wisdom of crowds

•Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia) - data mining mass information

•Social Networking (Linked in, My Space, Facebook, Orkut…) - Robot representatives

•Gameplaying (Second Life, World of Warcraft…) - holographics

•New Business Models– eBay, Amazon, Dell, Google, Yahoo!,MSN, AOL, iTunes, VOIP…

– Paper publication limited to special editions, online is the norm

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IPTV

• Streaming and Downloading – iPOD and vPOD behaviors?

• Mixing of all media as IP packets

• Ancillary information access

– Downloaded texts, programs, videos, audio, captions

– Advertising material

• Screen Control (icons, widgets)

• Multiple streams to multiple displays (beauty of packet switching)

• Online interaction while viewing

– Group commentary

– Advertising and product information

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Mobility and Mobiles - 2035

• 10 Billion Mobiles and counting (85% Internet enabled)

• Text/Web Access

• Payment systems

• Remote control of services and devices

• Innovative interfaces - Note I/O discovery, voice, haptics

• Navigation systems– GPS, Galileo?, Mobile Tower triangulation, Bldg Announcements

• Geo-location based services

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Internet-enabled Devices

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Internet-enabled Devices

Programmable – Java, Python, etc.

Examples:

• WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board!

• Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)

• Automobiles

• Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine bottle)

• Internet-enabled socks (clothing)

• Universal Remote Controls

• Sensor Networks

• RFID trackers (luggage, keys, “where’s my stuff?”)

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Challenges of the Digital Age

•Intellectual property treatment – Digital material is easy to copy and distribute

•Semantic Web

•Complex objects that can only be rendered via computer– 3D interactive objects

– Complex spreadsheets

– Interactive environments

•BIT ROT!– Preserving interpretive programs (Windows 3000 and PPT 1997)

– And the operating systems that run them

– And the hardware that run the operating systems

– For thousands of years!!

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InterPlaNetary Internet

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Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)

•Planetary internets

•Interplanetary Gateways

•Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture (RFC 4838)– Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP)

– Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050)• Delayed Binding of Identifiers• Email-like behavior

•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols– Tactical Mobile applications

– Civilian Mobile applications

– Deep Impact Testing 2008

– Space Station Testing 2009

– Mars Science Station 2035

– Planetary orbiters

– Atmospheric floaters

– Ground sensor networks

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•End-to-end information flow across the solar system

•Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

•Integrated communications and navigation services