View
216
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
&#noiOnDemand
GOTV UNIVERSES
Pilar WeissNew Organizing Institute
&#noiOnDemand
INTRODUCTIONS
NOI On Demand
You
Norms
&#noiOnDemand
FOLLOWING THE LAWELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM
&#noiOnDemand
FOLLOWING THE LAW
WWW.AFJ.ORG
&#noiOnDemand
Pilar Weiss
TODAY’S PRESENTER
Civic Engagement DirectorNew Organizing Institute
&#noiOnDemand
OBJECTIVE
Today’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity, and planning backwards to build up to scale.
&#noiOnDemand
AGENDA
IntroductionBasic TermsBuilding UniversesCapacity, Capacity, Capacity…Instituting a TimelineMaking AdjustmentsQ&A
&#noiOnDemand
• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.
• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.
• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.
SOME BASIC TERMS
&#noiOnDemand
BUILDING UNIVERSES
&#noiOnDemand
• Different vote goals for different kinds of campaigns– Candidates – 50% + 1– Ballot Initiatives – different
states/localities, different laws– Campaigns• Specific geography• Increasing turnout in a specific community
or demographic
SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL
&#noiOnDemand
&#noiOnDemand
• Building power in your community comes in lots of different forms! Define your win:– Increasing turnout of a specific
demographic– Taking responsibility for a specific
region, neighborhood, set of precincts
• Increasing civic engagement in a community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but it should still be based on metrics!
• What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill?
SETTING A NON-CANDIDATE VOTE GOAL
&#noiOnDemand
BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE
MODELING
PARTISANSHIP
DEMOGRAPHICS
ID/SUPPORT
VOTE HISTORY
&#noiOnDemand
SUPPORT
AGAINST UNKNOWN SUPPORTER
VOTE HISTORY
FREQUENT Opponents who always vote
Persuadables who always vote
Supporters who always vote
SPORADIC Opponents who sometimes
vote
Persuadables who sometimes
vote
Supporters who sometimes vote
NEVER Opponents who never vote
Persuadables who never vote
Supporters who never vote
NEW Newly registered opponents
Newly registered persuadables
Newly registered supporters
TARGETING MATRIX
&#noiOnDemand
HOW DO WE GET TO OUR VOTE GOAL?
• Identify our vote deficit• Identify how we’re going to contact
voters• When do we transition from an
ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase?• How many GOTV passes will we
make to get to our vote goal?
&#noiOnDemand
• Having a baseline for contact rates– Phones – 10-20%– Canvass – 25-35%
• Test contact rates – they’ll differ by geography, time of day, list quality.
CONTACT RATES
&#noiOnDemand
9,000 15% 50,000
CONTACT CALCULUS
Contact Goal
Contact Rate
Attempts Goal
&#noiOnDemand
BUILDING CAPACITY
&#noiOnDemand
• Organizational Capacity– Staff– Volunteers– Growth Potential
• Key Metrics– Canvass Method - Phones or Canvassing– Contact Rate Assumptions– Shift Length & Estimated Production
CAPACITY BUILDING BLOCKS
&#noiOnDemand
50,000 80 625
VOLUNTEER CALCULUS
Attempts Goal
Calls per Shift Shifts Goal
&#noiOnDemand
• Phases– Transition from persuasion to GOTV– Establishing # of GOTV passes– Calculating a timeline for each phase
based on contact rate & capacity
• Recognizing the role of Early Vote and Vote-By-Mail.
• Calculating ramp up & escalation in each phase, including key benchmarks.
BUILDING A TIMELINE
&#noiOnDemand
TIMELINE
Final ID/Target Universe
Initial GOTV Pass
Additional GOTV Passes
Early Vote/ VBM
Election Day
&#noiOnDemand
&#noiOnDemand
&#noiOnDemand
It happens on every campaign so embrace the adjustment phase!
• Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate
• Assess reality of shift length and shift production
• Volunteer and staff capacity growth and schedule
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
&#noiOnDemand &#noiOnDemand
QUESTIONS?
&#noiOnDemand
WWW.NEWORGANIZING.COM/TOOLBOX
Recommended