View
696
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING
ERIC GARLAND
Forecasting has been, is, and will always be about collecting data,
applying analytical tools, and convincing decision makers.
THE FUTURE:
More data collectedMore help from softwareConsiderably more complexityStill the same human activity
TL;DR
EVERYBODY FORECASTS• CEOs
• Financial forecasters
• Product managers
• Supply chain engineers
• Geopolitical risk analysts
• Subject matter experts
• Futurists
• Bankers
• People getting a puppy
• Kids picking a college major
• Anyone who has babies
• Anyone who wants to retire
FORECASTING: WE ALL SUCK
AT IT
Let’s do some mid-term normative scenarios on rain
and saber-toothed tigers.
Same impulse, crappy data set, crappy tools
“What sir? You would make a ship that sails against the winds and tides? I have no time for such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803
“It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications.
The device is inherently of no use to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876
OMG THIS TECHNOLOGY
WILL LEAD TO WORLD PEACE!
WORLD PEACE!
WORLD PEACE!
WORLD PEACE!
How did we miss this?
In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen once per million years.
OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT: We try to fit mechanistic, incremental
forecasting into a complex, transformative world
WHERE WE GO FROM HERE: Trends driving the
future of forecasting
STRATEGIC TRENDSMoore’s Law Continues
Advanced sensor arrays
Quantum computing
Massive Data™
Advanced algorithms
Virtual reality
People remain people
INTEL FORECAST: MOORE’S LAW WILL
FUNCTION THROUGH 2021 AND BEYOND
SENSORS EVERYWHERE
MICROSOFT FORECAST: FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026
MASSIVE DATA
A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS
MEGATREND: PEOPLE WILL
REMAIN PEOPLE
WWW.COMPETITIVEFUTURES.COM
WWW.ERICGARLAND.CO
@ERICGARLAND
ERIC GARLAND
Recommended