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© 2012 IBM Corporation
Smarter Planetmegatrends- Jørgen Floes, Chief Architect Nordic SO Delivery
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 2
The IT world is changing - driven by shifts in market dynamics and client needs
Analytics2
Through 2015, more than 90% of business leaders contend information is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10% will quantify its economic value
Big Data1
Through 2015, more than 85 percent of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for
competitive advantage
Mobile Enterprise5
66% of CIOs ranked mobility as a top investment priority in 2012
Social Business3
By 2014, 20% of business users will replace email as the primary interpersonal communications with social networking
Security7
Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per
year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities
Cloud6
63% of companies already are using (Cloud) or expect to use it in 2012, up
from 49% last year
Growth Markets8
By 2015, IDC expects emerging markets to generate over 33% of all IT spending
Smarter Planet4
IBM Smarter industry solutions will grow 5x faster than total solutions
CustomerSets
Software
Technology
Services
Hardware
Business
Services
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 3
IBM’s transformation has gone through distinct phases in the past decade; the “smarter” phase of the journey is underway
2002
Sharing & partnering
2010
Making things smarter
� Instrumented, interconnected, intelligent
� Enable growth and productivity
� Optimize the whole system
2006
Globally integrating
� Right skills, right place, right cost
� Rationalize support functions for greater efficiency
� Radically simplify processes
� Consistent set of processes worldwide
� Leverage best practices
� Standardize and reduce waste
� Governance and performance discipline
Being essential
� New era of computing
� Changing client
� Evolving IBMer
2012
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Global Technology Outlook
Smarter Planet megatrends
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IBM Global Technology Outlook Objectives
GTO identifies significant technology trends
early. It looks for high impact disruptive
technologies leading to game changing
products and services over a 3-10 year
horizon.
Technology thresholds identified in a GTO
demonstrate their influence on clients,
enterprises, & industries and have high
potential to create new businesses.
Smarter Planet megatrends
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GTO 2012 – The Genetic Map
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Technology example: The Watson System
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Future Systems – The Learning Paradigm
Training and Learning EnginesTo Build Models and Define Insight
Hypothesis EnginesTo Understand and Plan Actions
Policy EngineBusiness, Legal
and Ethical Rules
Verification Engines(e.g. Simulations)
Active Learning
(Natural Interfaces)
Outcome EngineActuation and Validation
Society Nature Institutions Archives
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Watson – a Workload Optimized System
Hardware
� 90 x IBM Power 750 servers � 2880 POWER7 3.55 GHz cores
� 500 GBps on-chip bandwidth
� 15 Terabytes of memory
� 500 GB of data (in memory)
Software
� IBM DeepQA,
� UIMA and UIMA AS
� Apache Hadoop
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Learning Systems Roadmap to Meet the Challenge
Greater Autonomy
Static Learning Systems
2010 2015 2020
Expert teams identify
features across
industries, create first
commercial learning
systems
Dynamic Learning Systems
Dynamic Data CorpusExpand Hypothesis Generation to different domains (leverage crowd-sourcing)
Add Scorers for Different Input Modalities: images, video, voice, environmental, biological;
leverage new devices & hardware acceleration
Deeper Reasoning: Allow higher-levels of semantic abstraction. Leverage new hardware.
Domain Adaptation Tools
Autonomous Learning Systems
Achieve understanding
of natural language,
images and other sensory
information. Hypothesis
and question generation
across arbitrary domains;
meta-heuristic to
automate algorithm
choices
Keyword Search
Delivers lists
based on
keywords &
human filters
1985
Biological Inspiration: Cognitive Process Understanding
Autonomously & accurately identify essential features across multiple domains.Learning systems must understand context to disambiguate.
Watson
2025
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Big Data and Predictive GovernanceSpeaker: Steven Adler
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Internet of Things Scenarios Show a Pattern of Customer Pain Points
� Collecting information to provide better service and work smarter
� Establishing the smarter planet!
Food SafetyWater Management Grid
TransportationHome HealthcareLogistics
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Forecasting a hurricane(www.noaa.gov)
Fitting a curve to data
Model UncertaintyAll modeling is approximate
Process UncertaintyProcesses contain
“randomness”
Uncertainty of data arises from many sources
Uncertain travel times
Semiconductor yield
Intended Spelling Text Entry
Actual Spelling
GPS Uncertainty
??
?
RumorsContaminated?
{John Smith, Dallas}
{John Smith, Kansas}
Data UncertaintyData input is uncertain
Ambiguity
{Paris Airport}Testimony
Conflicting Data
???
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Global Data Volume in Exabytes
Sensors
(Internet of Things)
Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Aggregate Uncertainty %
VoIP
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015
By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain
Enterprise Data
Data quality solutions exist for enterprise data like customer, product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the
total enterprise data.
By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All
sensor data has uncertainty.
Social Media
(video, audio and text)
The total number of social media accounts exceeds the entire global
population. This data is highly uncertain in both its expression and content.
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Every Smarter Planet Solution has Big Data and Needs Big Analytics
Smarter Planet
Data at RestData in Motion
Deep AnalyticsReactive Analytics
Predictive ModelsReal-time Awareness
Deeper InsightsFaster Decisions
BigData
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Up to 10,000 Times larger
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence
Data Scale
Data Scale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Data at Rest
New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics
Telco Promotions
100,000 records/sec, 6B/day
10 ms/decision
270TB for Deep Analytics
DeepQA
100s GB for Deep Analytics
3 sec/decision
Smart Traffic
250K GPS probes/sec
630K segments/sec
2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Homeland Security
600,000 records/sec, 50B/day
1-2 ms/decision
320TB for Deep Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Smarter Computing: Expert Integrated SystemsSpeaker: Jean-Michel Rodriguez
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Big Data Systems Require a Data-centric Architecture for Performance
Data lives on disk and tape
Move data to CPU as needed
Deep Storage Hierarchy
Data lives in persistent memory
Many CPU’s surround and use
Shallow/Flat Storage Hierarchy
Old Compute-centric Model New Data-centric Model
Massive ParallelismPersistent Memory
Largest change in system architecture since the System 360 Huge impact on hardware, systems software, and application design
Flash Phase Change
Manycore FPGA
input
output
Smarter Planet megatrends
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HDD cost advantage continues, 1/10 SCM cost, but
SCM dominates in performance, 10,000x faster than HDD
Storage Class Memory - The Tipping Point for Data-centric Systems
1000000.1HDD
100015FLASH
101SCM
1100DRAM
Relative Latency
Relative Cost
Source: Chung Lam, IBM
FLASH
(Phase Change)
SCM in 2015$0.05 per GB$50K per PB$0.10 / GB
$0.01 / GB
Smarter Planet megatrends
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2015 Vision: The Peta2 Data-centric System
� Goal– Data-centric, latency optimized, massive capacity system for long-running analytics and simulation applications
� Requirements– 1 Petaflop performance, massively parallel– 1 Petabyte BPRAM– Extremely low latency, high bandwidth interconnect (Xapt)
� Assumptions– Majority of data stays resident in memory for long periods, minority of data updated continually
– Persistent Memory becomes primary storage
This system can become the System 360 equivalent for the Era of Analytics
Petascale = Petaflop OR Petabyte
Petaflop x Petabyte = Peta2
2015 Peta2 Data-centric SystemPOWER 8/A2, BPRAM ITEs on Harrier
Peta2 Analytics
Appliance
+
Reactive+Deep Analytics
Platform
Relative SystemDensity per Rack
Peta2
1x
12x
1.4x2.3x
281x 336x
35.7x
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Announcing the First Two Members of the IBM PureSystems Family
Infrastructure System: Expert at sensing andanticipating resourceneeds to optimize your
infrastructure
Platform System: Expert at optimally
deploying and runningapplications for rapid
time-to-value
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Applications
Storage
Networking
Virtualization
ManagementCompute
Tools
Flexible and open choice in a fully integrated system
IBM PureFlex System is Integrated by design Expert
IntegratedSystems
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Mobility: Enabling mobile workstylesand embrasing cloudSpeaker: Erik Pedersen
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Advancing the Workplace of the Future
24
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Mobile device adoption, focused on accelerating security
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Social BusinessSpeaker: Stuart McRae
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Adoption of Social Tools is Increasing Rapidly
Public
Companies plan to increase spending on social despite recessionGrowth in Adult Social Network Site Use, 2005-2009
Enterprise
Fortune Global 100 Companies
Companies with ...
65%
54% 50%
33%
TwitterAccounts
FacebookFan Pages
YouTubeChannels
CorporateBlogs
Twitter Accounts
65%72% 71%
40%
67%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
Facebook Fan Pages
54%
69%
52%40%
33%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
50%59%
52%
35% 33%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
YouTube Accounts
US Mobile Subscribers Accessing Social Sites
Source:Burston-Marsteller
347%4,7001,051Twitter
-7%11,43912,338MySpace
112%25,13711,874Facebook
ChangeJan-10Jan-09
(Thousands)
Source:comScore MobiLens
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Convergence of Social and Analytic Technologies Transform the Way Businesses Operate
Socially Synergistic Enterprise SolutionsNew top-line opportunities, better relationships with customers and partners,
enhanced talent pool, increased resiliency and efficiency
Data
� Data aggregation
� Smart filtering
� Meaning extraction
� Consumable analytics
� Process orchestration
� Stream processing
Analytics
� Customer Sentiment
� Unmet Needs
� Talent Discovery
� Reasoning and Decision Support
� Crowdsensing, Crowdsourcing
� Teaming, Incentives, Motivation
Society
Organizations
Teams
Individuals
Social
SocialData from and about People
PhysicalSensors & Streams
Enterprise
Business Process
Transformation
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Can Provide Differentiating Value
Physical Meets DigitalCustomer Care and Insight Workforce Optimization
Financial Operations Smarter Commerce Advanced Case Management
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Thank you!
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