Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013

The future of SME and the evolution of business clusters

October 14th 2013

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS)

Strategy & Innovation

Membership Network

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CIFS is an independent, not-for-profit think tank. Since 1970, it has been guiding key decision makers all over the world.

We use futures studies to create immediate changes, innovation and development in companies, organizations and society.

We do this by offering a future-driven business network, experienced business development competencies and strong knowledge sharing. Part of our revenues are invested in R & D.

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Studying the future is human nature

It is a crucial adaptive capacity in human social, cultural, political and economic evolution

It is a fundamental aspect

of who we are and

how we function.

Predictions is rarely enough

”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing”

President George W. Bush July 2008

And the costumers are still more demanding

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”

H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

Do they actually know what the want?

”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse”

Henry Ford

We are trying to lay a hierarchy over a chaotic system

Top level megatrend

Sub-trend

trends

Individual obeservations

What is a megatrend?

Assessing megatrends’ consequences

• Megatrends are synthetic complex aggregation of trends. They are interconnected, which means there are synergistic opportunities among them.

• You can’t hide from a megatrend – they affects society in general. While megatrends are global, their impacts can vary locally.

• They have a life time of at least 10-15 years

• Warning: While they are ”paths” of expected development, do not expect the development to occur linearly

• We have a tendency to over estimate the consequences in the short-run and under estimate them in the long run.

How companies use megatrends:

Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: - Capture market oppotunities

- Test risks

- Spur innovation

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

- Basis for innovation process

- Basis for scenario planning

- Basis for Early Warning Systems

- First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment themes)

Matthias Horx, Futurist:

- Better decision making in strategic management

- Quicker and more precise innovation generation

USA, Magazine from the 1950’s: ”America 2000 - this is your future!”

3D Color TV Wall-Panel

Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & Roof Landing Area

MovingStairway House-control Panel

Glass Walls Dust-free Floors

Menu Selector & Microwave Stove

Giant-size Fruit

Ultrasonic Laundry

Electrical Heat Unit

Phono-vision Receiver

An example from CIFS

”Before 2005 we must expect China and maybe India to be future competitors and potential markets if we are able to adapt to their political and cultural constraints”.

Source, IFF: Towards 2005, 1980

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

15 How to benefit from a megatrend Pictet Asset Management

Sustainability

Globalization

Technology Development

Economic Growth

Threats and opportunities are in the cross

section of trends Original position

Current position

e.g. Clean Energy

How to use megatrends

Transactional environment

Contextual environment

Megatrends

• Social • Technology • Economic • Environmental • Political

• Competitors (new and existing)

• Suppliers and value chain

• Labor market

Opportunities Companies’ innovation, strategy and

risk management

Threats

Different approaches to predicting the future

Scenarios

Predictive Explorative Normative

Forecasts What if? External Strategic Sustaining Trans-

formative

Source: Börjeson, Línda, et. al. 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm, KTH.

• Desired future • Value based

• Hidden risks • Qualitative • Inspiring • Used daily • Used in everyday decision making

• Possible futures • Based on certain relationships • Hidden risks • Quantitative • Done when we need to decide quickly • Used everyday • Strong in short-term and in areas with low degrees of uncertainty

• Possible and plausible • Uncertainty based • Illustrate risks • Quantitative or Qualitative • Need to know what must be decided • Used occasionally • Strong in the medium to long-term or when there are high degrees of uncertainty

Scenarios Forecasts Visions

Examples of Scenarios

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Accelerating pace of change

Accelerating pace of change • Exponential rate of ICT development

– ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.”

• Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction

• CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/

Customers, innovation, competitors – the biggest threat to organizations

Likelihood

Sig

nif

ica

nc

e

Terrorism

Hazards

Compliance

Reputation

Business Interruption

Regulation

Interest rates

Credit Risk

Foreign Exchange

Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)

Political Risk

Economic Conditions

Technology Shifts

Innovation Competitor Shifts

Customer Preference

Industries converge

2000 2012

1. Nokia 1. Samsung

2. Motorola 2. Nokia

3. Ericsson 3. Apple

4. Siemens 4. ZTE

5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics

Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures

(total units sold)

Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012

New society creates need for new partnerships

Competition convergence

Energy Infrastructure

Automobile & homeowners

assistance

ICT Players

What is the answer • Exponential rate of ICT development

– ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.”

• Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction

• CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013

The rate of replacement of Fortune1000

Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/

The answer is increased flexibility: Due to the pace of change, employees are transitioning from a fixed to variable cost

• Among OECD countries, temporary job growth has been 1.5 – 2 times faster than total employment since 1990s

• In France, the number of temporary jobs grew by 66 percent while regular job growth increased by 7 (2000-2010).

Source: McKinsey (2012)

From transaction to relation and service

Ownership Lease

Service

Assets Cash flow

Reflections conclusions

Consequences

? Is you technology increasing the

flexibility of your customers

Are you selling a product or a service?

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

A new society requires new ways of working

20th century

• “Limited” social interaction

• Value in transactions

• Business stability

• Well-defined industries and hierarchies

• One-way markets

• Limited information

• Resource abundance

21st century

• Pervasive social interaction

• Value in relationships

• Business flux

• Industry transformation

• Two-way markets

• Information abundance

• Resource constraints

Institutions Forces • Ambient communication • Global information flows • Social computing • Market discontinuity

Communities

CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

How does this affects private consumption?

MR1 2013

Access/service is more important than owning

RobotCab – googlecar

Sharing economy

Source: The Economist (2013)

FREEDOM FROM OWNING

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Economic Growth

Growth is a megatrend but WE are struggeling

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012

GDP Growth Rate, as a % of previous Quarter

Germany United States European Union (27 countries)

OECD - Total Brazil China

India

Source: OECD StatExtracts, data extracted dec 3, 2012

Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030

Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum

Just the beginning

The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world (% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)

Personal consumption in developing Europe VS China (billions of USD)

Europe’s periphery: Developing Europe, Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

Output of Europe’s periphery VS China/India (trillions of USD)

Regional thinking

Kilde: Tøm vækstlommerne i Europa, af Susanne Tholstrup, Børsen, 20.09.12

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030

Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum

Institutioner

Source: Fatás&Mihov HBR 2009. Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007. Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research GroupJune 2008

A changing environment for offshoring

Source: McKinsey (2008)

Massive Impact

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

Population (i tusental)

1950

Median age

28,6

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

1960

Median age

29,6

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

1970

Median age

30,6

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

1980

Median age

31,9

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

1990

Median age

34,4

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2000

Median age

37,6

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2010

Median age

40,8

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2020

Median age

43,8

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2030

Median age

46,6

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2040

Median age

49,4

Population (i tusental)

OECD

More developed regions

Low Variant

Population (in 1000)

40,00030,00020,00010,000010,00020,00030,00040,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+ Male FemaleMænd Kvinder

2050

Median age

51,1

Population (i tusental)

OECD

We’re not alone

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Senior lines • K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout

lane for the old and handicapped

• Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small talking with the co-worker

• Lane is called: “SLOW”

• Grab a chair - sit down – and enjoy the atmosphere

0 20 40 60 80

80 60 40 20 0

Around 1950

Around 2020

Dep

en

den

t

Ind

ep

en

de

nt

Fre

e 1

Pare

nts

Fre

e I

I

Eld

erl

y

Life Phases

Age

Age

Omkari Panwar, 70 år

Source: HSCB Insurance, 2011: The Future of retirement

Better than expected The experience of life in retirement after 60, is almost everywhere better than expected – whether comparing missing work, financial security or standards of living. The survey shows that far from being a time of misery, penury and frailty, life for most people in their 60s and 70s is characterised by good health, independence, control and a good quality of life

Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)

United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision

And we are all moving to the city

Genkai Shuraku- marginal village

A community that has reached a critical limit in the number of elderly that ultimately hinders their ability to function properly. 50% of the population above 65 (18.775 villages) will be Genkai Shuraku in 2020.

Source: DS (2012)

Four major urbanization trends

Importance of global 600

600 most important

contributors to global GDP

Emergence of mega cities

Cities with over 5 million inhabitants

Mega regions

Cities combining with suburbs to

form regions (population over

10 million)

Mega corridors

The corridors connecting two major cities or mega regions

EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-

Guangzhou in China (population

120 Million+)

• Today: "Pentagon": London, Hamburg, München, Milano og Paris.

• I 2040: The Pentagon goes east: London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa.

Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010

Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority

She-conomy

• The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by 2028.

• Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases :

– 91% of New Homes

– 66% PCs

– 92% Vacations

– 80% Healthcare

– 65% New Cars

– 89% Bank Accounts

– 93% Food

– 93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals

Sources: She-conomy.com

Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority Nordic Region Women graduates ISCED 5+6

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Men

Women

Lineær (Men)

Lineær (Women)

Business, law, social sciences. Engineering, however, no change

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3. Social science, business and law

4. Natural science, mathematics and computing

5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction

Lineær ( 3. Social science, business and law)

Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)

Women graduates grew 2,5 times faster than men

Design, products and services for women

In 2000, only 1/4 of Danish women earned more than their partner

Today, 1/3 of Danish women earn more than their partner

Towards, 2028 72% of purchasing decisions will be made by women…if BCG is correct

Sources: DS, 2012, DDC, 2011

Growing portion are single

Reflections

conclusions

Consequences

Aging?

Urbanization

She-conomy

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

Please, help yourself

Holy Grail—a 5.6-ounce running shoe called the Flyknit, made from synthetic yarn ingeniously woven together by a knitting machine.

Megatrends Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Acceleration and complexity

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

From To

A consequence of the financial crisis

Critical success factor in business

Numerous studies show that on average, a business located in a cluster has a

stronger growth and survival rate than those located outside it.

Clusters enhance the following:

» Productivity

» Innovation

» New business formation

Source: HBR, 1998

Critical success factor identified within global search

New business formation Productivity Innovation

Example of clusters in various industries

Financial services

• London City, New York

Film • Hollywood, “Bollywood”

Cars • Detroit, Toyota City, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart

Watches • Switzerland, Japan

Flowers • The Netherlands, Colombia

Computer software

• Silicon Valley, Bangalore

Wine

• Barossa Valley, Rioja, Bordeaux, Southern Chile, parts of California

Biotech, life sciences and

medical instruments

• Boston’s Route 128, BioValley 21, Medicon Valley

Clusters typology can be based on organization criteria:

• industrial clusters (rural areas, no leader firm, shift from small-scale production to

industry, informal relationships)

– e.g.: Italian industrial districts

• technological clusters (urban area, incubator role, professional relationships)

– e.g.: aircraft industry in Toulouse/France, wood industry in Banská Bystrica region/Slovakia

• SMEs concentration (rural areas, network activities, informal relationships)

– e.g: tourism industry

• system around a leader firm (urban area, hierarchical relationships)

– e.g.: automotive sector in Montbéliard/France, Trnava/Slovakia (PSA Peugeot)

Clusters in Italy

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

UK

Latv

iaIr

elan

dIt

aly

Bu

lgar

iaA

ust

ria

Turk

eyC

roat

iaP

ort

uga

lN

orw

ayB

elgi

um

Swed

enFi

nla

nd

Esto

nia

Ger

man

ySl

ova

kia

Net

her

lan

ds

Slo

ven

iaH

un

gary

Fran

ceR

om

ania

Luxe

mb

ou

rgIs

lan

dM

alta

Lith

uan

iaSw

itze

rlan

dSp

ain

Den

mar

kG

reec

eC

zech

Rep

ub

licP

ola

nd

Cyp

rus

Companies active in cluster-like environment (%)

Others

Cluster likeenvironment

0123456

Cro

atia

Lith

uan

iaSl

ove

nia

Latv

iaP

ola

nd

Cyp

rus

Mal

taFi

nla

nd

Gre

ece

Esto

nia

Turk

eyB

ulg

aria

Slo

vaki

aD

enm

ark

Bel

giu

mR

om

ania

Irel

and

Ge

rman

ySw

eden

No

rway

Po

rtu

gal

Luxe

mb

ou

rgSp

ain

UK

Isla

nd

Fran

ceA

ust

ria

Swit

zerl

and

Cze

ch…

Ital

yN

eth

erla

nd

sH

un

gary

Partnership Diversity Index • Public administration • University and other

education institutions • Public laboratories or

research centers • Large companies • Small and Medium

Enterprises • Start-ups / Newly

established companies • Financial institutions

Source: Eurobarometer, 2006

Cluster: evolution of concept

Geographic concentrations of interconnected companies,

specialized suppliers, service providers, firms in related

industries, and associated institutions in particular fields

that compete but also cooperate.

Michael E. Porter (1998)

Top-down approaches have proven ineffective to improve firms’ (esp.

SMEs) innovation capacity

Network arrangements that, though embedded in,

transcend geographical location, focus on global

markets, operate as ad-hoc and/or long term business

networks, are ICT enabled, and are based on dynamic

aggregations of capabilities of different SMEs.

Damaskopoulos et al (2008)

Networks and open knowledge clusters, bottom-up conceived, are the alternative for SMEs to flourish

Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Complexity and acceleration

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

CIFS megatrends

Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Complexity and acceleration

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

CIFS megatrends

Productivity

A new society requires new ways of working

20th century

• “Limited” social interaction

• Value in transactions

• Business stability

• Well-defined industries and hierarchies

• One-way markets

• Limited information

• Resource abundance

21st century

• Pervasive social interaction

• Value in relationships

• Business flux

• Industry transformation

• Two-way markets

• Information abundance

• Resource constraints

Institutions Forces • Ambient communication • Global information flows • Social computing • Market discontinuity

Communities

CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010

Clusters and productivity

» Better access to employees and suppliers

» Access to specialized information

» Complementarities

» Access to institutions and public goods

» Better motivation and measurement

Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Complexity and acceleration

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

CIFS megatrends

Innovation

Hyper specialization

• As labor becomes more knowledge based and communication technology advances, the division of labor accelerates.

• It leads to improvements in:

» quality,

» speed and

» cost.

Source: HBR, 2012

Increasing talent mobility

81,3 86,3 99,3

111

154,9 165,1

176,7 190,6

214

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nu

mb

er (

mill

ian

)

Year

Source: Global Talent Strategy (2012), Oxford economics (2013)

Managing talent, Leadership Development, and Strategic Workforce Planning Are Perceived as the Most Critical Topics

Source: BCG/WFPMA, 2012. Modified by CIFS

Open source innovation & Crowdsourcing

Investment in product development

0

5

1015

20

2530

35

40

45

Busin

ess model

Netw

ork

Sup

. Proces

Core proces

Pro

duct

Pro

duct system

Service

Sales chan

nel

Bran

d

Custo

mer exp.

Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

Value Creation due to product development

0

5

1015

20

2530

35

40

45

Busin

ess model

Netw

ork

Sup

. Proces

Core proces

Pro

duct

Pro

duct system

Service

Sales chan

nel

Bran

d

Custo

mer exp.

Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.

Business model innovators outperform traditional innovators

Innovation is higher in clusters than elsewhere

78

63

53

44 41

29 29

74

56

33

53

20 14 12

Introduce new orsignificantly

improvedproducts or

services

Introduce new orsignificantly

improvedproductiontechnology

Conduct marketresearch for

introducing newproducts or

services

Carry out in-house research

Contract outresearch to otherfirms, universities

or researchinstitutes

Register one ormore

internationaltrademarks

Apply for one ormore patents

Innovative cluster companies Inovative companies

Source: Eurobarometer, 2006

Network society

Sustainability

Knowledge society

Immaterialization

Democratization

Complexity and acceleration

Technologic development

Economic growth

Demographic development

Focus on health

Polarization

Globalization

Commercialization

Individualization

CIFS megatrends

New business formation

FoodNetwork: Innovation at Eye Level

The aim:

• create growth within the food industry through networks, projects and activities

• be the link that ensures visibility of the relevant • partners within the food industry support and

facilitate existing and new clusters

Main participants:

• Companies: Q food, Nørre Kærgård Bison, Delika, India Dan, Sans og samling Gastronomi, Lindbjerg Økoged, Sørvad Frilandgrise & fodboldgolf, Canstantia2, Selleberg, Gårdmosteriet Fyn, Højvang, Claudis Have, Mylius-Erichsens Bryghus, Jæger-Holding, Jens Møller Products, Canard, Danika-Grønt, Kokken og Jomfruen, Christian Vollstedt

• Knowledge Institutions: Knowledge for-Food Development, Danish Technological Institute, Holstebro Technical College, AgroTech

• 8 private consultants, Food Center Videbæk

Four development groups:

• Meat development group (new recipes based on bison meat)

• Logistics group (develop a model for a joint sales and distribution)

• Business Development workshop (individual projects development and counseling process)

• Internationalization workshop (individual projects development and counseling process)

Novelty of the case activity:

• New approach to interaction between individual counseling and development in small groups

• Particular groups who have been joined across the value chain and have worked together to develop concrete recipes or concepts.

• ‘Innovation at eye level’ was an isolated project, but it is a method we will continue to develop and refine for future activities and projects.

Kalundborg Symbiosis

Clusters internationalization

Cluster

Suppliers

Manufacturers

Distributors

Academic institutions

Researchers

Workforce training

» Networked projects

» Cross‐clusters

» Trans‐local relations

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

www.iff.dk

Claus Kjeldsen

ck@iff.dk

+45 28 25 31 01