Systems analysis and

methodological development for

application in critical areas of

global change – major focus:

International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis

ENERGY

POPULATION

ATMOSPHERIC

POLLUTION &

MITIGATION

EVOLUTION & ECOLOGY

LAND USE & FORESTRY

DISASTER & RISK

Funded by 19 nations.

Game Changers ProjectPartnerit

www.iiasa.ac.at

Sitra, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus, UPM Kymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes, EtlajaSanomaSkotlanninhallitus

Game Changers ProjectTulokset

www.iiasa.ac.at

15.6.2011J. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen, M. Lex, J. Liesio,

P. Rouvinen and U. Bilge

J. Honkatukia, P. Ormerod, A. Salo, S. Thurner, M. Tynkkynen, M. Wilenius

IIASA Exploratory Projects/ Xevents

Epävarmuus lisääntyy

Lehman Brothersin 9/2008 konkurssin todennaköisyys oli 0,00000000000000000000007

Huhuun perustuvien tappioiden syntyminen Espanjan vihannesviennille, tai

ranskalaisten maanviljelijöiden myynnin romahtaminen 90%,

ei saanut mitaan todennäköisyyttä.

Game Changer

Historia:megatrenditja

trendit

Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011

5

Global economic system 2030?

Game Changers

Mitä kaikki tämä vaikuttaa pienen avoimen talouden kilpailukykyyn?

G

T

N

s

i

m

u

l

a

t

o

r

Structural

scenarios

Ind. Ecosystem simulation

Life SciencePlanning for uncertainty

Food & drinkPlanning for uncertainty

DigitalizationTools for attribution theory

Forest industryPlanning for uncertainty

Com. technology Ind. ecosystem simulation

ESIMERKKEJÄTULOKSISTA

Yhteenveto

GlobaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaaStable& Turbulent World

Volatile World

Scen ario in brief

The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.

The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.

Prerequi sites

Fast climate change, resource scarcity severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas

Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcityproblems)

Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong nations, strong ideologies, clash of cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military conflicts)

Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, zero energy sources , global financial system collapsed, globalization is over, no reliance on policy makers

Structure drivers

Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record

Open source development, climate change is mitigated,/failure, resource scarcity, no ideologies

Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030

Syklisyyskasvaa Tempo tiivistyy

Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasyklinmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoimintamalliin

Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa

Stable& Turbulent World

Volatile World

Scen ario in brief

The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.

The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.

Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030

Syklisyyskasvaa Tempo tiivistyy

Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasyklinmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoimintamalliin

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

China Germany Scenario - Finland Sectors Export Performance in 2030

difference from baseline (bn USD)

Paper products

Motor vehicles, parts

Petroleum, coal products

Ferrous metals

Wood products

Chemical, rubber, plastic

Mineral products

Machinery and equipment

Electronic equipments

Top 20 kauppasimulaattori

Muttavaikutuksetsaattavatollavähäisiäkin

Kaikkeeneikannatareagoida, pitkätstabiilitkaudetovatmyösmahdollisia

Ekosysteemitselviävät

Viestintäteknologiasektori Muutamansuurenyrityksenekosyste

emituottaakasvua, mutta on herkkämuutoksille

Tuoteinnovointituottaaresilienssiä, muttaeikasvua

Josepävarmuudetlisääntyvät, pientenyritystenverkosto on parempirakennemalli

Skotlannin Food & Drink Kehittyneetkorkeanjalostusarvonal

atherkkiämuutoksille Perusteollisuuskestäämuutoksest

Toimivaekosysteemikoostuutoisensatasapainottavistayrityksistä

Kokonaisuusratkaisee

Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030

Montaerimarkkinaa, joillahyvine

rilainenkäyttäytymistapa>erilais

etmenestystekijät

Systeeminhäiriät/muutoksetlevi

ävätkaikkialle

Globaalintoimijan on

hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit

Multiplex

Scenario in brief

Global system consists of different

domains with different structures and

behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system

Prerequi sites

Assymmetric development (local/sector specific regulation, bloc development, standardization, climate change agreements, polarization)

Drivers Diverse set of drivers, domain specific, systemic drivers, external shocks cascading throughout the system

Structure drivers

Role of public sector, International regulation, polarization of growth

Multiplex

Scenario in brief

Global system consists of different

domains with different structures

and behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system

KokonaisuusratkaiseeGlobaalintalous: Multiplex 2030 Montaerimarkkinaa,

joillahyvinerilaisetmenestystekijät Systeeminhäiriöt/muutoksetleviävä

tkaikkialle

Globaalintoimijan on hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit

Globaalimetsäteollisuus>Joustava portfolio: sekämassa-tuotantoaettäräätälöityjäbisneksiä

Kestäväportfolio on moni-muotoinen, myöstoimintatavoiltaan

LOCALIZED PRODUCTION

Invest in small production units close to the deinked pulp and large markets. Micro mills in cities make quick re-cycling possible.

Organize own recycled paper collection and sorting company

Search partners for printing paper company fusions.

SCALE FREE PORTFOLIOS

Integrate printing paper industry with biorefineries. Use wood also for producing other high-value products and by-products.

Concentrate on big production units in low cost areas.

Vertical integration. UseMultiple revenue possibilities .

Vienninrakenne Moninaisuustuottaamyoskasvua

Rytmijaajoitus

Viestintäteknologiasektori Mitäkovemmatinnovaatiovaatimuks

et, sitäparempi

Tietoinenfokuserilaisillenopeanrytmininnovaatiomarkkinoille

Painetunviestinnändigitalisoituminen Ekosysteeminrakentaminen vie

aikaa

Jos kasvuahalutaan, eikannata olla pioneeri

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

100000000

20

02

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

03

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

04

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

05

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

06

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

07

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

08

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

09

Q2

Q3

Q4

20

10

E-BOOK SALES IN US

http://www.publishers.org/main/IndustryStats/documents/S12008Final.pdf

Epävarmuuseiuhka, vaanmenestystekijä

13

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

16. HYBRID KNOWLEDGE

15. FROM PHARMA TO I.T INTEGRATION

14. PRICE AND QUALITY

13. OPEN SOURCE SCOTLAND

12. PIONEER SCOTLAND

11. SPECIALISED PARTNER

10. INFLUENCE EU MARKET

9. HARD TO COPY

8. NHS COLLABORATION

7. RADICAL INNOVATION

6. SELF FUNDING

5. CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALIST

4. LARGE COLLABORATION

3. COMBINATIONS

2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS

1. NICHE FOCUS

Portfolio size

Large collaborationIT integrationPrice and quality

Climate change specialistInfluence EU marketSelf funding

Radical Innov.Networked operationsSpecialized partnerOpen source Scotland

Hard to CopyHybrid knowledgeNiche FocusNHS collaborationCombinationsPioneer Scotland

Core Contingent

Cu

rre

nt

Ne

w

Portfolio

Globaalimetsäteollisuus, SkotlanninFood&Drinkja Life Scences

Epävarmuuksiensystemaattinenanalyysituottaajoustavuutta

Haasteenaei ole riskienminimointivaanmahdollisuuksienmaksimointi!

Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINEN

Rakenne• Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueistadiversifiointiin• Suurteollisuudestaekosysteemeihin• Massatuotannostapientenerilaistenbisnestenportfolioon

Ohjaus• Fokusoidustastrategiastasyklinmukaiseentoimintaan

Oikeatvalinnat• Investoinnit? - Koulutus? - Tuotantorakenne?

• Nopeus• Tilastoistatoimintaympäristönseurantaa

• Muutoksenhidastamisestainnovaatiovauhdin (jakonkurssien) suosimiseen

• Teknologiainnovaatioistanopeaanvanhanjauudenkombinointiin

• Kompleksisuus• Kombinaatiot (perustutkimus)

• Monimuotoinenrakenne

• Julkisenjayksityisensektorinyhteinentarjoamavientimarkkinoille

• Lyhytaikainenkasvu• Resurssienuudelleenallokointi

Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?KASVU

Seven Innovation Strategies?

1. Growth. • Diversification of the offering of

large RCA companies.• Exclusivity of

products, combinations of old and novel technology

• Active initiator.

2. Follower. • Specialized partner of global

networks. • Basic research for wide

competence set• Unique combinations in

education.

3. Speed . • Focus on high speed innovation

sectors.• Agile allocation of resources

(resource pools, facilitators) • Funds; Bankrupt insurance, risk

insurance, AAF • Innovation stock

7. Portfolio. • Export portfolio – complex

services• Diversification of

sectors, competences and GVA intensity

• Surprise management

5. New ecosystems. • New sector definitions• Low GVA ecosystem + arrow

head companies• By-products, multipurpose

production• Domestic demand• Diverse usage of resources• Gradual path to

entrepreneurship

6. Designer. • Modes management, cycle

scanning, contingent instruments

• Role shifting concepts; public and private

• Integration of public and private resources in value chains

4. Platform. • IT infrastructure (super

computing)• Regulation (open source, virtual

production, mode defined taxation)

• Insurance portfolio• Bilaterial agreements

Stable& Turbulent World

Volatile World Multiplex

Scen ario in brief

The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence.

The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior.

Global system consists of

different domains with different

structures and behaviours.

Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system

Prerequi sites

Fast climate change, resource scarcity severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas

Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcityproblems)

Assymmetric development

Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong nations, strong ideologies, clash of cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military conflicts)

Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, zero energy sources , global financial system collapsed, globalization is over, no reliance on policy makers

Diverse set of drivers, domain specific

Structure drivers

Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record

Open source development, climate change is mitigated,/failure, resource scarcity, no ideologies

Role of public sector

Space of Uncertainty Process

1. Game changers – key uncertaintiesGC list

Web enquiry

2. Extreme worlds Descriptions of extreme worlds/markets

dominated by the uncertainty

3. Success strategies for extreme worlds

List of activities, capabilities or development items that produce success in the extreme world

4. Assessment of activities’ benefitsWeb enquiry

5. Potential portfolio that will produce success what-so-ever happens

RPM method for quantitative analysis

x3

p1

p2

p3

x5

x1

x4

x7

x2

x6

Current activities that are sensitive for change

Watch List

New activities that seem to be relevant in many extreme situations

Activities that are valid in many extreme situations

Core Contingent

Cu

rren

t N

ew

Portfolio