Upload
matthew-klippenstein
View
697
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on the world energy system and the role for fuel cells therein. Delivered to Simon Fraser University Surrey campus Engineers Without Borders student club. Feb 2012.
Citation preview
The World Energy PictureThe World Energy Picture(and where Fuel Cells fit in)(and where Fuel Cells fit in)
Matthew KlippensteinFeb 26, 2012
1. A successful species
2. Where we are now
3. Where we are going
4. How fuel cells fit in
1. A successful species
P A G E 4
…we’re pretty successful…
P A G E 5
Global Population
6.7 billion humans
25 billion chickens
2 billion pigs
1 billion cattle
1 billion sheep
0.5 billion cats
0.4 billion dogs
P A G E 6
Global Population
6.7 billion humans
25 billion chickens
2 billion pigs
1 billion cattle
1 billion sheep
0.5 billion cats
0.4 billion dogs
domesticated animals
P A G E 7
Global Population
6.7 billion humans
25 billion chickens
2 billion pigs
1 billion cattle
1 billion sheep
0.5 billion cats
0.4 billion dogs
0.001 billion whales (1,000,000)
0.001 billion bears (1,000,000)
0.0005 billion elephants (500,000)
domesticated animals
P A G E 8
Visualizing population
+ +
= 1,000,000 individuals
6700 million
2.5 million
P A G E 9
Our noticeable impact
we’re so successful, we put nature off-balance
all numbers are Gigatonnes CO2 equivalent (billions of tonnes). From IPCC via: http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm)
(billions of tonnes of CO2)
P A G E 10
Our noticeable impact
we’re so successful, we put nature off-balance
From IPCC via: http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm)
17
12(billions of tonnes of CO2)
P A G E 11
CO2 levels
rising CO2 primarily drives planet’s warming
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png
P A G E 12
global warming factors
GHG’s dwarf other effects (except volcanoes)
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century.htm
P A G E 13
global warming data
temperatures rising – heat in oceans rising much faster(latent heat of melting, of ice)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling.htm
P A G E 14
faster than expected!
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/23/greenland-ice-sheet-collapse-global-warming-science/
Globe warming as per IPCC’s worst-case scenario!!
Major bummer.
P A G E 15
Why it all matters
Our civilizations evolved in a “goldilocks” zone
From: http://climateprogress.org/category/best-ppts/
P A G E 16
Maddeninglyaffordable to solve
Savings from first steps can pay for almost everything else!!
http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/29/mckinsey-2008-research-in-review-stabilizing-at-450-ppm-has-a-net-cost-near-zero/
2. Where we are now
P A G E 18
Emissions by sector
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-ts.pdf
P A G E 19
Lots of work to do…
but lots of people are doing work!
e.g. industry,
forestry,
buildings
Emissions by sector
Ballard focuses on this slice(electricity)
Entrust remaining slices to others
P A G E 20
Emissions by sector
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-ts.pdf
Lots of work to do…
but lots of people are doing work!
P A G E 21
Emissions by sector
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-ts.pdf
Lots of work to do…
but lots of people are doing work!
Let’s look at industry, forestry, buildings
P A G E 22
Industry Emissions
1990-2010: DuPont cut GHG emissions 75%*
• 2nd-biggest chemicals manufacturer in the world
• $38 billion in sales (2011)
* 63%, if you exclude a business unit they sold offhttp://www2.dupont.com/Sustainability/en_US/Footprint/index.html
P A G E 23
Industry Emissions
1990-2010: DuPont cut GHG emissions 75%*
• 2nd-biggest chemicals manufacturer in the world
• $38 billion in sales (2011)
DuPont is not perfect
• still #1 emitter of air pollution in US
but it’s not alone
• in same timeframe, Dow Chemical cut GHG emissions 40%**
* 60%, if you exclude a business unit they sold offhttp://www2.dupont.com/Sustainability/en_US/Footprint/index.html
** http://www.dow.com/commitments/pdf/dow_energy_vision.pdf
P A G E 24
Forestry Emissions(Deforestation)
Pine beetle has been catastrophic
http://explorethebitterroot.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/beetle-kill.jpg
P A G E 25
Forestry Emissions(Deforestation)
http://climateprogress.org/2008/04/25/nature-on-stunning-new-climate-feedback-beetle-tree-kill-releases-more-carbon-than-fires/see http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hre/bcmpb/BCMPB.v6.2009Kill.pdf
From 2000 to 2020, BC forests will emit more CO2 than they
absorb!
Deforestation has same effect: fewer trees to absorb CO2
P A G E 26
Forestry Emissions(Deforestation)
but some exciting reforestation news, e.g. Groasis
• 3-year trial by University of Oujda in Morocco
• “Waterboxx” improves sapling survival rate: 10.5% 88.2%
P A G E 27
Forestry Emissions(Deforestation)
but some exciting reforestation news, e.g. Groasis
• 3-year trial by University of Oujda in Morocco
• “Waterboxx” improved sapling survival rate: 10.5% 88.2%
• costs $2. Can be removed after 1st year (and used again)
P A G E 28
Buildings’ Emissions:LEED™ buildings
a modest premium - not a crazy premium
Cadillac vs. Chevrolet (not Ferrari vs. Ford)
Olympic Athlete’s Village Millenium Water
http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/1709730.bin?size=620x400
P A G E 29
Buildings’ Emissions:net zero houses
one has been built nearby!• Harmony House in Burnaby http://www.harmony-house.ca/index.html
• solar panels to generate electricity equivalent to annual use
crazy premium (for now)
P A G E 30
Buildings’ Emissions:net zero houses
one has been built nearby!
• solar panels generate all its electricity
• why expensive? All parts are imported!
• 20,000 built in Europe since standards set (1996)
crazy premium (for now)
P A G E 31
Lots of work to do…
but lots of people are doing work!
e.g. industry,
forestry,
buildings
Where Fuel Cells focus
Ballard focuses on this slice(electricity)
Let’s go in-depth…
2. Where we are now b) electricity
P A G E 33
Global Electricity (2010)
mainly wind
http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/overview/electricity Figure 12
P A G E 34
Global Electricity (2010)
http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/overview/electricity Figure 12
coal is dirty:
40% of electricity,
75% of CO2
mainly wind
P A G E 35
Coal…
cheap
dirty
dangerous
http://www.coal-is-dirty.com/files/images/blogentry/smoke%20stack.JPG
http://www.worldcoal.org/coal-the-environment/coal-use-the-environment/
NOx
SOx
mercury
arsenic
uranium (!)
smog
P A G E 36
Coal’s big effect
Two provinces have high per-capita coal use
http://www.ec.gc.ca/pdb/ghg/inventory_report/2008_trends/trends_eng.cfm#toc_3
2008 GHG emissions (tonnes CO2 / person)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BC AB SK MB ON QC NS NB PEI NF
P A G E 37
Coal’s big effect
If we magically eliminated coal
remove 8 gigatonnes CO2 emissions
17
124
http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/overview/electricity Figure 13
P A G E 38
Nuclear
fewest deaths per kWh
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c24/page_168.shtml
annual coal deaths: 4,000
Fukushima deaths: 0
Chernobyl deaths: 3,000
Chernobyl evacuees: 250,000
P A G E 39
Nuclear
but even before Fukushima there wasn’t a comeback, because…
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c24/page_168.shtml
P A G E 40
Nuclear
but even before Fukushima there wasn’t a comeback, because…
it’s unbelievably, unbelievably,unbelievably expensive!!
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c24/page_168.shtml
http://climateprogress.org/2009/07/15/nuclear-power-plant-cost-bombshell-ontario/
Cost for Ontario (2.4 GW)
coal: $5 billionnuclear: $26 billion
plus overruns
P A G E 41
The Achilles’ heel
Electricity use fluctuates during the day…
personal correspondence
P A G E 42
The Achilles’ heel
…but coal and nuclear don’t easily turn off:
they aren’t a complete solution
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P A G E 43
Natural Gas
cleanest fossil fuel… still emits CO2
mainly “peak plants”
• high demand periods
• slow to adjust up/down
recently, baseline too
• for now, natural gas iseven cheaper than coal!
must start up hours before use hits efficiency, cost
P A G E 44
Natural Gas – a new map
shale gas (natural gas in shale ‘rock’)
• newly-accessible deposits cheaper
• but wells deplete fast need to keep drilling
• could replace coal for primary power plants
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/01jan/ShaleGasBasinsNorthAmer300px.jpghttp://www.chartsrus.com/chart1.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTNG
P A G E 45
Natural Gas – a new map
shale gas (natural gas in shale ‘rock’)
• newly-accessible deposits cheaper
• but wells deplete fast need to keep drilling
• could replace coal for primary power plants
• but fugitive emissions could make it worse *
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/01jan/ShaleGasBasinsNorthAmer300px.jpghttp://www.chartsrus.com/chart1.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTNG
* http://www.eeb.cornell.edu/howarth/GHG%20emissions%20from%20Marcellus%20Shale%20--%20with%20figure%20--%203.17.2010%20draft.doc.pdf
P A G E 46
How Shale Gas becomes worse than coal
most people run the faucet awhile, before filling their water bottles
the first bit of water goes down the drain…
the rest is captured for later use.
P A G E 47
shale gas drilling operations kinda do the same thing
post-frack, methane dissolves into the fracking fluid…
which is pumped out. The methane comes out of solution and enters the atmosphere.
Once the fracking fluid is out, the well is connected to existing pipelines (which leak a bit).
How Shale Gas becomes worse than coal
P A G E 48
It’s easy to capture the methane from the fracking fluid – but gas is so cheap that few companies do it.
It’s a scaled-up case of how we tend to waste tap water.
How Shale Gas becomes worse than coal
P A G E 49
How Shale Gas becomes worse than coal
30-95 years
In the short term, methane emissions have a much, much higher Global Warming impact than CO2.
“Fugitive” methane means shale gas could be worse than coal, on a per-unit-of-combustion-energy basis!
Not a technical issue: a financial issue (can be fixed with policy / incentives).
P A G E 50
Hydro
can turn up/down instantly (“Holy Grail”)
• “load following”
P A G E 51
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Daily Electric Usage
natural gas and hydro fill the gap
natural gas, hydro
P A G E 52
Plus and Minus
Different energy types have different “features”
Pollution (operating)
Follows Load
coal HIGH -
nuclear - -
natural gas LOW ½
hydro - Y
3. Where we are going
P A G E 54
Renewable Energy
Two future giants
P A G E 55
Renewable Energy
wind: 2.1% …doubling every 3 years
solar: 0.3% …doubling every 2 years
exponential growth
P A G E 56
Exponential Growth
does amazing things
good examples:
• compound interest (savings - hopefully!)
• computers double in speed every 18 months (“Moore’s Law”)
bad examples:
• compound interest (credit cards, student loans)
• cancers
P A G E 57
Wind
not a fluke
• exponential growthfor 15+ years
20% of grid in Denmark
China is #1 manufacturer
http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE_GSR_2009_update.pdf, page 11
P A G E 58
Wind
Grouse Mountain
• has viewing pod!
student club activity?
P A G E 59
Solar
not a fluke
• also has 15+ years’exponential growth
lots of Silicon Valley money
China is #1 manufacturer
http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE_GSR_2009_update.pdf, page 12
P A G E 60
Solar
http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2010/plenary/chu.pdf page 14
[US Energy Secretary] Steven Chu proves that winning a Nobel Prize doesn’t mean you know how to make a legible graph…
P A G E 61
Solar
when total install-base doubles, panel cost drops 20% (past trend)
install-base doubles every 2 years
http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2010/plenary/chu.pdf page 14
ie. drops to 80% of prior value
P A G E 62
Solar
when total install-base doubles, panel cost drops 20% (past trend)
install-base doubles every 2 years
in 2 years, cost is 80%
in 4 years, cost is 64%
in 6 years, cost is 51%
http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2010/plenary/chu.pdf page 14
ie. drops to 80% of prior value
P A G E 63
Solar
while panel cost has dropped…
…overall cost still high (system, labour)
http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/emp/reports/lbnl-2674e.pdf page 12
P A G E 64
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
The Achilles’ heel
Wind and solar are both intermittent
• not a 24/7 solution (23/6 if widely deployed)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
4. How fuel cells fit in
P A G E 66
Analogues
Follows Load
coal -
nuclear -
natural gas ½
hydro Y
complete solution requires natural gas, hydro
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P A G E 67
Analogues
Follows Load
coal -
nuclear -
natural gas ½
hydro Y
complete solution requires natural gas, hydro
Follows Load
wind -
solar -
wind + solar are not a complete solution
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P A G E 68
Analogues
Follows Load
coal -
nuclear -
natural gas ½
hydro Y
complete solution requires natural gas, hydro
Follows Load
wind -
solar -
batteries Y
FUEL CELLS Y
complete solution requires batteries, fuel cells, smartgrid, micro-grids, geothermal, etc.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P A G E 69
“You complete me”
batteries, fuel cells,smart grid, etc.
wind,solar
P A G E 70
“You complete me”
wind,solar
investors
“show me the money!”
batteries, fuel cells,smart grid, etc.
P A G E 71
Reasons for Optimism
Let’s regraph solar, wind growth curves
Clean Energy Growth Curves(coal plant = 500 MW. Due to intermittency, need 1500 MW wind or solar to replace it)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MW
(p
eak
cap
acit
y)
Wind (per-year installations)
Solar (per-year installations)
P A G E 72
Reasons for Optimism
Logarithmic chart looks like this
Clean Energy Growth Curves(coal plant = 500 MW. Due to intermittency, need 1500 MW wind or solar to replace it)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MW
(p
eak
cap
acit
y)
Wind (per-year installations)
Solar (per-year installations)
P A G E 73
Reasons for Optimism
Logarithmic chart looks like this
Clean Energy Growth Curves(coal plant = 500 MW. Due to intermittency, need 1500 MW wind or solar to replace it)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MW
(p
eak
cap
acit
y)
Wind (per-year installations)
Solar (per-year installations)
let’s shift the solar curve, to see how far behind solar is
P A G E 74
Reasons for Optimism
Solar is 7 years behind wind, but on same track
Clean Energy Growth Curves(coal plant = 500 MW. Due to intermittency, need 1500 MW wind or solar to replace it)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
MW
(p
eak
cap
acit
y)
Wind (per-year installations)
Solar (per-year installations)
P A G E 75
Reasons for Optimism
Solar is 7 years behind wind, but on same track
Clean Energy Growth Curves(coal plant = 500 MW. Due to intermittency, need 1500 MW wind or solar to replace it)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
MW
(p
eak
cap
acit
y)
Wind (per-year installations)
Solar (per-year installations)
Fuel Cells are a “little” further down - but we will follow a very similar track, too
P A G E 76
“Learning Curve” Review
Learning Curves happen for many industries
Often linked to
• higher volumes
• better use of materials(cheaper or less stuff)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects#Reasons_for_the_effect
P A G E 77
FC Learning Curves
For fuel cells to grow, costs have to drop - and they have!
* cost to build - does not include development costs
Automotive Stacks: build cost
(1990's) (1999) (2000) (2010)
"off-scale" "very high"
P A G E 78
Cost of sample Fuel Cell Component,various product lines
(2002) (2008) (2009)
FC Learning Curves
Sample component
* cost to build - does not include development costs
design efficiency
higher volumes
P A G E 79
How Learning Curves Work
as volumes increase, overhead-per-piece drops
process improvements usually happen too
Price vs. Volume
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pri
ce
Overhead
Material Cost
P A G E 80
How Learning Curves Work
as volumes increase, overhead-per-piece drops
process improvements usually happen too
Price vs. Volume
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pri
ce
Overhead
Material Cost
fuel cell suppliers are here
P A G E 81
“All” that’s left
volume to get the price to get the volume to get the price to get
Price vs. Volume
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pri
ce
Overhead
Material Cost
It looks like you’re using iMessage. Would you like a summary?
P A G E 83
Wrapping Up…
A) get rid of coal
17
124
P A G E 84
Wrapping Up…
A) get rid of coal
B) wind and solar can help
P A G E 85
Wrapping Up…
A) get rid of coal
B) wind and solar can help
C) but they’ll need help
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
P A G E 86
Wrapping Up…
A) get rid of coal
B) wind and solar can help
C) but they’ll need help
D) from fuel cells among others
P A G E 87
Wrapping Up…
A) get rid of coal
B) wind and solar can help
C) but they’ll need help
D) from fuel cells among others
E) our learning curve will get us there, as we persist
Price vs. Volume
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pri
ce
Overhead
Material Cost