Upload
nhtvbreda
View
3.014
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
By Paul Peeters
Citation preview
Climate Change and Tourism
Paul Peeters(NHTV Centre for Sustainable
Tourism and Transport)(Thanks to Dan Scott, University of Waterloo, Canada, for part of the
presentation)
Technical Report
Commissioned for:
2nd International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism
(Davos, Switzerland – 1-4 Oct.)
Minister’s Summit on Climate Change and Tourism (London, England – 13 Nov.)
Commissioned by UNWTO, UNEP and WMO
Reviewed by over 20 experts on tourism and climate (UNWTO, UNEP, WMO, IATA, and others)
Authors:» Dr. Daniel Scott (Lead Author) - University of Waterloo,
Canada
» Dr. Bas Amelung - University of Maastricht,Netherlands
» Dr. Susanne Becken - Lincoln University, New Zealand
» Dr. Jean-Paul Ceron - Limoges University, France
» Ghislain Dubois - TEC Conseil, France
» Dr. Stefan Gossling - Lund University, Sweden
» Paul Peeters - Breda University, Netherlands
» Dr. Murray C. Simpson - University of Oxford, England
‘The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ (IPCC-AR4 2007)
The pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21st century
(IPCC-AR4 )2007)
Our task now is to ‘Avoid the Unmanageable, and Manage the Unavoidable’ (Schellnhuber 2006)
The Climate is Changing … and Only Just Begun
Climate Change Impacts at Tourism Destinations
Regional Knowledge Gaps
Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
Emissions from Global Tourism: Status & Projections(NHTV CSTT contribution to report)
‘Global Tourism Emissions Model’ for 2005» UNWTO Department of Statistics and Economic
Measurement of Tourism prepared a specific database for the project
» Three sub-sectors: transport, accommodation, activities
» Includes international and domestic tourism
‘Business as Usual’ Scenario for 2035 » Arrivals and LOS trend projections: ‘Tourism
Vision 2020’, nation and industry forecasts» Energy efficiency trend projections: Boeing
(2006), EU MuSTT Study (2004)
Calculation of Emissions from the Tourism Sector
Global tourism in 2005
Total 4700 million trips of which: 4000 domestic 750 international 130 interregional
(long haul) Total of 19.7
billion guest-nights
16%
42%
42%
InternationalDomestic developed countriesDomestic other countries
Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt)
Air transport * 522 40%
Car transport 418 32%
Other transport 39 3%
Accommodation 274 21%
Activities 52 4%
TOTAL 1,307
Total World (IPCC 2007)
26,400
Tourism Contribution 4.95%
Transportationof Tourists = 75%of Sector Emissions
* - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate
Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only
Share global tourism in climate change
0,00
4,00
8,00
12,00
16,00
CO2 RF Excludingcirrus
RF Includingmaximum cirrus
impact
Sh
are
of
tou
ris
m t
o e
mis
sio
ns
or
rad
iati
ve
fo
rcin
g (
%)
* Excluding same-day visitors
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2035 Avoiddangerous
CC 2050
Mt
CO
2
Air Transport
Car Transport
Other Transport
Accommodation
Activities
40%
32%
21%
‘Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism*
Contraction and Conversion EU25 air transport GHG emissions
Conversion-contraction graph
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Em
issi
on
s (M
ton
/yea
r)
CO2 EU economy CO2 aviation
Mitigation Policies & Measures
High Tech-Efficiency Scenario: (changes versus BAS)» reduction in aviation energy consumption per pkm of 50% (vs 32% in BAS)» additional 2%/year reduction in car emissions per pkm» additional 2%/year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm» additional 2%/year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest-night» additional 2%/year reduction in activities emissions per trip
Modal Shift-Longer Stay Scenario: (changes versus BAS)» no further growth in aviation number of trips and pkm [i]» 0.5%/year increase in average LOS vs 0.5% reduction/year in BAS» growth in rail/coach of 2.4% to 5% per year to keep total number of guest-
nights constant with BAS
[i] The number of pkm is kept constant, using average trip distance as found in BAS, thus also keeping the number of trips by air transport constant. However, it is possible to reach the same emissions reduction with some growth in the number of trips by air when the average distance is reduced (i.e. less long haul and more medium haul).
Tourism Mitigation Scenarios for 2035
* Excludes same-day tourists
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Baseline ‘Business as
Usual‘
Technical
Efficiency
Modal-
Shift/Length of
Stay
Combined
Mt
CO
2
2035*
2035 Mitigation Scenarios
-36%
-68%
-43%
2005*
Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism: Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035
0
10
20
30
40
50
Number of Trips
(%)
Europe
Asia and Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
Africa
Middle east
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
International Tourism trips
0
10
20
30
40
50
CO2 emisisons
(%)
Europe
Asia and Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
Africa
Middle east
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
International Tourism CO2 emissions
The long haul travel and poverty issue
UNWTO: ‘no simplistic measures against aviation because then the poor will suffer’.
However: The great majority of long haul air transport
trips is between rich continents. The long haul trips to Africa cause minor part of
emissions Scenario: all international intra-EU trips to Africa
double international emissions en adds equivalent of 20% of Dutch economy in revenues to a continent.
Conclusions Climate change is happening now and
adaptation is already inevitable and costly Tourisms’ contribution to CC between 4-14%
and growing by 150%, where 80% reduction is required: mitigation measures inevitable
Tourism is more than aviation (17%) and international (16%).
Increasing dependence on air transport risky course
Pro-poor tourism the wrong argument against measures
Dan Scott: “Tourism must be willing to lead on climate change or it will be led”