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Presentation by Dr. James for given to the IPY 2012 conference in Montreal on April 24, 2012
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THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS AND CHANGE: THE IQALUIT LAND USE MONITORING PROJECT
Dr James D. Ford, Graham McDowell, Jamal Shirley www.jamesford.ca
Background
¨ Key theme in scholarship: CC and subsistence hunting ¨ Baseline understanding
¤ Widespread evidence of CC and impacts (safety, food security, culture) ¤ Vulnerability / resilience mediated by socio-economic factors
¨ Deficiencies in understanding (see Ford & Pearce 2012, The Canadian Geographer) ¤ Static understanding yet vulnerability dynamic (e.g. adaptive learning,
feedback, thresholds) ¤ Nature of climate - impact links not fully understood
¨ Methodological limitations ¤ Retrospective study design (recall bias, seasonal influences) ¤ Absence of longitudinal studies, reliance of limited field seasons
2
The Iqaluit Land Use Monitoring Project (ILMP)
¨ Obtain real-time longitudinal data on Inuit-environment interactions to understand how climate risks are experienced and managed
3
GPS Tracking 4
¨ 2 full-time hunters equipped with GPS ¨ 2007 – ongoing
Regular interviews 5
¨ >100 post hunt interviews ¨ Examine GPS data, review land use, dangers
encountered, coping mechanisms employed etc.
Accompanied hunting trips 6
¨ Team members go hunting during all seasons
Instrumental data
¨ Use of local weather station data and CIS ice charts
7
Results: Land-use 8
¨ 2008-2010: >21,000km travel ¤ 70% by snowmobile,
average trip107km ¤ 30% boat, average
trip 99km
Ford et al (in review, AAAG)
Results: Changing env. conditions 9
¨ 1982-2010 ¤ 50 days later
freeze up ¤ 70 days more
open water ¤ Declining wind
predominance
¨ Hunting team ¤ Ice instability ¤ 2010/11
extremes
Ford et al (in review, AAAG)
Results: Access constraints & opportunities
10
¨ Trail network “choke points”
¨ 2010/11 many hunting areas inaccessible
Ford et al (in review, AAAG)
Results: Terrestrial adaptation 11
¨ Caribou in Amadjuak Lake region in Nov-Jan ¤ Sustainability:
hunting pressure, CC, & caribou
¤ Land hazards ( snow, river freeze up (e.g. 2008))
Ford et al (in review, AAAG)
Results: General observations (1) 12
¨ Co-occurence of climatic extremes problematic ¤ e.g. Nov-Dec 2010: late freeze-up, 38 days lost to high
winds, Amadjuak Lake trail impassible till Dec
¨ High adaptability: flexibility, TK
¨ Hunting team are keystone individuals ¤ Broad importance for Iqaluit
¨ Importance of income: damaged equipment replaced, extra distance costs incurred (e.g. vs Igloolik)
Results: General observations (2) 13
¨ Potential for ‘trajectories of maladaptation’ (Fazey et al 2011) ¤ Short-term adaptability may result in long term
vulnerability ¤ Donwstream effects: displacing impacts to future ¤ Overspecialized adaptations susceptible to a new
stressor (e.g. caribou)
Conclusion 14
¨ Analyzed 2008-2010 data (see Ford et al., in review, Annals Assoc. of American Geographers)
¨ Future ¤ Focus on 2010/11 ¤ Continued monitoring ¤ Aim: 10 years
Thank You 15
Thank You
Acknowledgments: Josh Atagoyuk, Levi Pisuktie, Udlu Pisuktie, Tristan Pearce, Bill Gough, Rick Siewierski, Sara Statham, Frank Duerden, Mike Pitre, ArcticNet, SSHRC, NRI, IPY