11

The CyberScope - Q1 2015 Market Review

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15

Broadline Endpoint Network Data Monitoring & Analysis Global Security NASDAQ Comp

Results International Global Cyber Security Indices

Note: Based on share prices as at 31st March 2015 Note: Indices weighted by market capitalisation Sources: Capital IQ and Results analysis 2

36.3%

18.9% 16.7%

45.3%

14.5%

(23.5%)

14.6%

Q1 2015 Performance

Broadline (4.1%)

Endpoint 16.1%

Network 5.2%

Data 17.5%

Monitoring & Analysis 16.0%

Global Security 4.6%

Cyber Security: Share Price Performance

Note: Share price performance as at 31st March 2015 Sources: Capital IQ and Results analysis

3

Broadline Endpoint Network Data

Monitoring & Analysis

Q1

-20

15

Last

12

Mo

nth

s

(8.9%)

18.6%

9.7%

40.2%

19.6%

(7.0%)

7.3% 4.3%

(27.4%)

14.0%

(11.9%)

19.2%

(5.0%)

7.5%

24.3%

(13.6%)

22.8%

(25.4%)

23.1%

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

17.0% 23.9%

3.3% n.a.

12.1%

n.a.

13.3% 21.2%

(32.8%)

58.6%

7.8%

112.9%

18.3%

(6.6%)

(36.3%)

(23.3%)

59.7%

(51.1%)

82.8%

(60.0%)

(40.0%)

(20.0%)

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Company IPO

Date Description Raised

Indicative Price

Range ($)

IPO Price

($)

Increase vs.

range

Day 1

Increase

Current

Increase(1)

Current

EV

EV / Revenue

2015E

EV / EBITDA

2015E

Sep-14 Privileged account

security 86 13.00-15.00 16.00 14.3% 87.1% 247.3% 1,764 13.3 x n.m.

Jun-14 Mobile security and

management 100 8.00-10.00 9.00 0.0% 22.4% 2.9% 683 4.0 x n.m.

Nov-13 Network security and

data storage 64 18.00-21.00 18.00 (7.7%) 19.7% 113.7% 1,976 6.2 x 27.4 x

Sep-13 Forensics and malware protection

304 15.00-17.00 20.00 25.0% 80.0% 96.3% 6,267 10.1 x n.m.

Sep-12 Cloud security and

compliance 91 11.00-13.00 12.00 0.0% 18.0% 287.3% 1,704 10.1 x 39.5 x

Jul-12 Firewalls and network

security 260 38.00-40.00 42.00 7.7% 26.5% 247.8% 12,596 12.6 x n.m.

Apr-12 Communication

security 82 10.00-12.00 13.00 18.2% 8.3% 355.5% 2,511 10.1 x n.m.

Feb-12 Antivirus and anti-

spyware 128 16.00-18.00 16.00 (5.9%) (18.8%) 35.3% 1,243 3.0 x 8.1 x

Nov-11 Data centre security 90 14.00-16.00 18.00 20.0% 33.3% 137.2% 1,187 6.0 x n.m.

Cyber Security: Recent IPO Performances

4

Note: Calendarised to December year end; $ millions, except share price data; Multiples capped at 20x EV / Revenue and 50x EV / EBITDA Note: (1) Current increase from IPO price; Market data as of 31st March 2015 Source: Capital IQ

Nasdaq

Nasdaq

Nasdaq

Nasdaq

NYSE

NYSE

NYSE

NYSE

Nasdaq

Cyber Security: Valuation Benchmarks

5

EBITDA Margin 2015E EV / EBITDA 2015E

Revenue Growth (2015-16E) EV / Revenue 2015E

Note: EV = Enterprise Value; Financials calendarised to December year end

Note: Median values reported; excludes negative multiples

Note: See Selected Publicly Traded Companies (Slide 9) for details of companies included in each category

Source: Capital IQ

1.9%

16.9%

13.5%

25.4%

14.7% 15.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Broadline Endpoint Network Data Monitoring &

Analysis

Global

Security

34.7%

18.7% 20.7%

(9.2%)

13.6%

19.1%

(15.0%)

(10.0%)

(5.0%)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Broadline Endpoint Network Data Monitoring &

Analysis

Global

Security

2.7 x 3.5 x

4.6 x

10.1 x

5.7 x

4.0 x

0.0 x

2.0 x

4.0 x

6.0 x

8.0 x

10.0 x

12.0 x

Broadline Endpoint Network Data Monitoring &

Analysis

Global

Security

7.8 x 8.6 x

15.1 x

n.m.

39.5 x

11.6 x

0.0 x

5.0 x

10.0 x

15.0 x

20.0 x

25.0 x

30.0 x

35.0 x

40.0 x

45.0 x

Broadline Endpoint Network Data Monitoring &

Analysis

Global

Security

Cyber Security: Global M&A Activity

6 Sources: Press Releases, Capital IQ, Mergermarket and Results analysis

26 26 26 27

23 23

32

24

15

31

25

22

32

28 28

22

34

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015

Tota

l D

isc

lose

d D

ea

l V

alu

e (

$m

)

Nu

mb

er

of D

ea

ls

Number of Deals Total Disclosed Deal Value

Cyber Security: Selected Deals in Q1 2015

Date Buyer Target EV ($m) EV /

Revenue EV /

EBITDA Company description

Target Location

Mar-15 - - - Mobile VPN service for secure browsing

Mar-15 - - - Cloud and on premise digital document security

Mar-15 2,400 - - Enterprise security solutions against advanced threats

Mar-15 60 - - Predictive cyberthreat detection and prevention

Mar-15 - - - Containerised data security solutions

Mar-15 40 - - Firewall and intrusion detection software

Feb-15 - - - Online two-factor authentication software

Feb-15 80 - - CPU level threat prevention engine

Feb-15 - - - Email security and endpoint protection

Feb-15 - - - Data-centric security software

Feb-15 - - - Cloud security and encryption software

Feb-15 60 - - Secure cloud storage

Jan-15 - - - Cyberthreat intelligence platform

Jan-15 - - - Mobile security and risk analytics

Jan-15 - - - Identity and access management services

Jan-15 - - - Network vulnerabilities and exposures management

Jan-15 - - - Cloud-based email and web security

7

Note: Enterprise value (EV) = transaction value scaled to 100% shareholding plus net debt (includes minority interest) Financials relate to the companies’ full fiscal year before the transaction took place Sources: Press releases, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, 451 Research and Results analysis

Cyber Security: Selected Fundraisings in Q1 2015

Date Company Type of round Funds

raised ($m) Investor participation Company description

Company headquarters

Mar-15 Venture 52.0 Andreessen Horowitz Enterprise security and systems management

Mar-15 Series A 18.0 Hoxton Ventures, Talis Capital, Invoke Capital Partners Behavioural cyber defence technology

Mar-15 Series A 6.0 Costanoa Venture Capital, Rally Ventures, Paladin Capital Group, Blackbird Ventures

Crowdsourced security testing platform

Mar-15 Series B 30.0 Third Point Ventures, Mayfield Fund, Telstra, Pelion Ventures Cloud application security services

Mar-15 Series A 8.0 USVP, Plus Capital, Double M Capital, Core Ventures Group, Inventures Group

Application security solutions

Mar-15 Series A 9.8 March Capital Partners, Allegis Capital, The Hive Cybersecurity analytics

Mar-15 Series A 1.7 Inventures Group, Paua Ventures Web application security analytics

Feb-15 Series B 12.0 Telstra Ventures, TOYO Corporation, Sierra Ventures, Samsung Ventures Mobile threat defence

Mar-15 Venture 19.0 Blue Sky Capital, Rogers Venture Partners Identity and authentication solutions

Feb-15 Series B 25.0 GGV Capital, Icon Ventures, Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers, Google Ventures, Greylock Partners, Allegis Capital

Crowd security intelligence platform

Feb-15 Venture 8.0 Strom Ventures, Passion Capital, TenEleven Ventures Cyberthreat intelligence

Feb-15 Series A 18.0 Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco Investments, Marker, Bessemer Venture Partners, Innovation Endeavors

Cybersecurity research lab

Feb-15 Venture 15.0 83North Venture Capital, Bessemer Venture Partners Secure mobile gateway and threat prevention

Jan-15 Series B 15.0 Sequoia Capital, Index Ventures, EMC, Zohar Zisapel User activity auditing and threat protection

Jan-15 Series C 14.1 DRW Ventures, Icon Ventures, Leapfrog Ventures, Math Venture Partners, OVP Venture Partners, Pallasite Ventures, Tyco, Venrock

Security risk management solutions

Jan-15 Series B 8.0 Harmony Partners, New Science Ventures, .406 Ventures Cloud data encryption platform

Jan-15 Series C 40.1 Jafco Ventures, TechOperators, Google Ventures, Meritech Capital, KPCB

Data security platform

8

Sources: VentureSource, Capital IQ and Results analysis

Price % of 52 Market Total Net Enterprise Revenue Rev. Growth Gross Margin EBITDA Margin

Company (31-Mar-15) Week High Cap Cash Debt Value CY2015 CY15-16 Historical CY2015 CY2016 CY2015 CY2016 CY2015 CY2016

Broadline

Symantec 23.37 85.5% 15,961 3,740 (1,645) 14,316 6,502 0.7% 82.8% 34.7% 35.0% 2.2 x 2.2 x 6.3 x 6.2 x

Trend Micro 32.99 90.5% 4,445 1,145 (1,145) 3,300 1,024 3.0% 82.1% 34.7% 34.3% 3.2 x 3.1 x 9.3 x 9.1 x

Endpoint

AVG Technologies 21.65 94.5% 1,117 139 126 1,243 421 8.7% 83.1% 36.3% 34.7% 3.0 x 2.7 x 8.1 x 7.8 x

CyberArk 55.57 78.8% 1,941 177 (177) 1,764 133 25.1% 85.7% 10.6% 11.8% 13.3 x 10.6 x n.m. n.m.

F-Secure 2.89 92.8% 455 66 (66) 389 162 3.8% 95.5% 26.7% 22.5% 2.4 x 2.3 x 9.0 x 10.3 x

MobileIron 9.26 71.5% 801 118 (118) 683 170 29.5% 81.8% (25.4%) (13.4%) 4.0 x 3.1 x n.m. n.m.

Network

Barracuda Networks 38.47 94.5% 2,142 171 (167) 1,976 317 15.6% 77.0% 22.7% 22.9% 6.2 x 5.4 x 27.4 x 23.6 x

Check Point Software 81.97 95.3% 15,065 1,312 (1,312) 13,753 1,621 7.8% 88.3% 56.1% 56.5% 8.5 x 7.9 x 15.1 x 13.9 x

Corero Network Security 0.17 43.3% 19 6 (6) 13 16 40.6% 65.1% 0.6% 9.3% 0.8 x 0.6 x n.m. 6.3 x

Fortinet 34.95 97.9% 6,116 720 (720) 5,396 925 17.6% 70.0% 16.4% 17.9% 5.8 x 5.0 x 35.5 x 27.6 x

F5 Networks 114.94 84.4% 7,387 654 (654) 6,733 1,994 11.4% 82.1% 38.4% 28.3% 3.4 x 3.0 x 8.8 x 10.7 x

Palo Alto Networks 146.08 97.1% 12,794 675 (198) 12,596 1,001 30.9% 73.3% 19.1% 24.3% 12.6 x 9.6 x n.m. 39.6 x

Radware 20.91 87.6% 942 104 (104) 837 248 10.7% 81.0% 22.4% 23.4% 3.4 x 3.1 x 15.1 x 13.0 x

Secunet 22.17 92.8% 143 40 (40) 103 89 10.3% 64.3% 10.1% 10.0% 1.2 x 1.1 x 11.6 x 10.6 x

Data

FireEye 39.25 59.8% 6,669 402 (402) 6,267 619 37.8% 58.9% (33.4%) (16.1%) 10.1 x 7.3 x n.m. n.m.

Imperva 42.70 74.3% 1,296 110 (110) 1,187 199 20.6% 77.7% (9.2%) (2.6%) 6.0 x 5.0 x n.m. n.m.

Proofpoint 59.22 97.5% 2,564 215 (53) 2,511 249 25.4% 66.4% 0.5% 6.3% 10.1 x 8.1 x n.m. n.m.

Monitoring & Analysis

Guidance Software 5.41 48.1% 162 18 (18) 144 110 5.7% 66.9% 1.5% 5.4% 1.3 x 1.2 x n.m. 23.1 x

Qualys 46.48 93.0% 1,832 127 (127) 1,704 168 23.8% 78.3% 25.6% 26.9% 10.1 x 8.2 x 39.5 x 30.4 x

25th percentile 76.6% 165 8.2% 68.4% 1.1% 7.8% 2.7 x 2.5 x 8.9 x 9.4 x

Median 90.5% 249 15.6% 78.3% 19.1% 22.5% 4.0 x 3.1 x 11.6 x 11.9 x

75th percentile 94.5% 963 25.3% 82.5% 30.7% 27.6% 9.3 x 7.6 x 21.3 x 23.4 x

Operating Metrics Valuation Metrics

Revenue EBITDA

Cyber Security: Selected Publicly Traded Companies

9

Note: Calendarised to December year end; $ millions, except share price data; Multiples capped at 20x EV / Revenue and 50x EV / EBITDA; Net debt includes minority interest Source: Capital IQ

27 Soho Square, London, W1D 3AY

t +44 20 7629 7575 | f +44 20 7629 2233

www.resultsig.com

Chris Lewis

Managing Director

Di: +44 (0) 20 7514 8236

E: [email protected]

10

Mark Williams

Director

Di: +44 (0) 20 7514 8242

E: [email protected]

Disclaimer:

This document has been produced by Results International Group LLP (“Results”) and is furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and, accordingly, none of Results’ officers or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document.

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Contact Us

588 Broadway, Suite 1010, New York, NY 10012

t +1 646 747 6500

www.resultsig.com

Pierre-Georges Roy

Partner

Di: +1 646 747 6505

E: [email protected]

Maurice Watkins

Partner

Di: +1 646 747 6500

E: [email protected]