Swaminathan

Association for Sense About ScienceNatural History Museum

M.S. Swaminathan, FRSUNESCO Chair in Ecotechnology

President, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World AffairsM.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai

Where the Green Revolution has left us and where we need to go now?

London, 22 May 2003

Public Good Plant Breeding : What are the international priorities?

Famines and Public Good Plant Breeding

The Irish Potato Famine of 1840s triggered the

search for new genes in tuber-bearing Solanum

species.

“This Conference, meeting in the midst of the

greatest war ever waged, and in full confidence of

victory, has considered world problems of food and

agriculture and declares its belief that the goal of

freedom from want of food, suitable and adequate

for the health and strength of all peoples, can be

achieved”.

Resolution of Conference convened by President Franklin D. RooseveltHot SpringsVirginia (18 May to 3 June 1943)

Major Famines of the 20th Century

YearYear EpicentreEpicentre Excess MortalityExcess Mortality

19431943 BengalBengal 2.7 to 3.00 million deaths2.7 to 3.00 million deaths

1958-621958-62 ChinaChina 16.5 to 29.5 million16.5 to 29.5 million

1972-751972-75 EthiopiaEthiopia 2 lakhs2 lakhs

1972-741972-74 BangladeshBangladesh 1.5 million1.5 million

19731973 SahelSahel 1 lakh1 lakh

Source : Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines, 1981

Haiti Can’t- be-saved

Egypt Can’t-be-saved

The Gambia Walking Wounded

Tunisia Should Receive Food

Libya Walking Wounded

India Can’t-be-saved

Pakistan Should Receive Food

Famine : Triage classification of countries

- Paul and William Paddock, 1967

Variation in Australian Average Wheat Yield (Ten-Year Mean) from 1860 to 2000Fighting Soil Hunger

Water Conservation and Management : Key to Crop Security

The rice terraces of Bali

Green Revolution in Europe

o Began with Liebig’s discovery of mineral fertilizer in the 1850s

o Soil health, water management and plant protection proved to be key factors in determining crop productivity

o Mendelian genetics helped to breed strains capable of responding well to soil fertility and irrigation water management

Daruma(Japanese semi-dwarf) X

Fultz(U.S. winter wheat, high yield)

Fultz-Daruma(semi-dwarf, high yield)

Locals(adapted to

U.S. Northwest)X

X Turkey Red(U.S. winter, high yield)

Norin 10(semi-dwarf, winter, high yield)

Gaines(semi-dwarf, winter,

U.S. adpted)

X Local Strains

New Wheats(semi-dwarf, high yield, adaptable, rust-resistant, fast-maturing,spring)

Origin of the semi-dwarf wheats

Power of Mendelian Breeding

Public good Plant Breeding and assured and remunerative marketing triggered rapid progress

Wheat Production – India now occupies theSecond Position in the World

1965: 10 Million t 2000 : 80 Million t

o Some time between 1970 and 1985 the world will undergo vast famines — hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death. That is, they will starve to death unless plague, thermonuclear war, or some other agent kills them first.

o The United States should announce that it will no longer ship food to countries such as India where dispassionate analysis indicates that the unbalance between food and population is hopeless.

Ehrlich 1968

Synergy between Technology and Public Policy

Science and Agricultural Progress1968 – The Beginning of Green Revolution

o Pedigree Selectiono Inter-varietal Hybridizationo Winter x Spring Wheat crosseso Mutation Breedingo Aneuploid and Genomic Breedingo Restructuring Plant Architecture : Semi-dwarf wheato Shuttle Breeding and Photo-insensitivityo Hybrid Wheato Apomixiso Functional Genomics and Molecular Breeding

Hundred Years of Wheat Breeding

Land and Forest Saving Agriculture

Non-lodging , greater absorption of sun light, better root system, higher harvest index and photo-insensitivity

New Plant Type in Rice

8000BC

1900Landraces

1930Purelineselection

1950Crossbreds

2010Biotech-nology

1995Indica/Indica

hybrids

2005Indica/

Tropicaljaponicahybrids

1965 1990 2000Newplanttype

Semidwarfs(IR8) (IR72)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Potential yield (t/ha)

From Green to Gene Revolution in Rice

Public Sector Public-Private Sector

Genetic Resources(building blocks)

Biotechnologies(tools)

Commercial Products(market value)

$

Sui generis Systems(Rights)

Benefit-sharing(collective rights)

(e.g. Farmers’ Rights and the Global Plan of Action)

Intellectual Property Rights

(individual rights) % (e.g. Plant Breeder’s Rights)

FAO – International Treaty – Art, 9(also Art. 12 &13)CBD – Art, 8 (j)

WIPOWTO/TRIPS (Art. 27.3.b)

UPOV

Access to Genetic Resources andBiotechnologies for Food and Agriculture

“Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to

forestall. He will end by destroying the earth”

- Albert Schweitzer

Environment and Development : Early WarningRachel Carson 1962 : Silent Spring

“Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility and soil structure would lead ultimately to the springing up of deserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water would lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming. The rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened prior to the Irish potato famine of 1845 and the Bengal rice famine of 1942. Therefore, the initiations of exploitative agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced into traditional agriculture and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us into an era of agricultural disaster in the long run, rather than to an era of agricultural prosperity.”

Scientific rationale for an Ever-green revolution

- M S SwaminathanIndian Science Congress, Varanasi, January 1968

What nations with small farms and resource poor farmers need is the enhancement of productivity in perpetuity, without associated ecological or social harm. The green revolution should become an ever-green revolution rooted in the principles of ecology, economics and social and gender equity.

- M S Swaminathan, 1990

Concept of Ever-green Revolution

Green

RevolutionEver-green

Revolution

Commodity Centered

Experiment Station

Research

Integrated Natural Resources

Management Centered

Participatory Research

Paradigm Shift : Adding the Dimension ofEnvironmental sustainability

Growth Rates in the Production of Food Grain

2.82.29

3.94

1.78

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Year

Per

cen

tage

Fatigue of the Green Revolution

Where do we need to go now?

o In population rich and land hungry countries, there is no option except to produce more from less per capita arable land and irrigation water.

o The smaller the farm, the greater is the need for marketable surplus, to get cash income

o There is need for anticipatory research to face future challenges like global warming and sea level rise

o Obviously an integrated approach to Mendelian and molecular breeding will be essential to make progress

Mangroves : Useful Sources of Genes for Salinity Tolerance

Anticipatory Research

cDNA libraries were constructed from the Mangrove species Avicennia marina

A number of genes with potential application to abiotic stress has been isolated and charactreised

Four isolated genes were used for developing transgenics in rice, Brassica and Vigna

Transgenic plants with salinity tolerance genes

Avicennia marina

Facing the Challenge of Sea level Rise

Integrated Mendelian and Molecular Breeding

Transgenic (T1) rice plants with genes from mangroves in the greenhouse (salt tolerance upto 150 mM)

“Organic agriculture includes all agricultural

systems that promote the environmentally,

socially and economically sound production of

food and fibres. These systems take local soil

fertility as a key to successful production.”

International Federation of Organic

Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) - 2002

Organic Agriculture and Evergreen Revolution

OrganicFarming

1) Soil Health

2) Water Quality

3) Plant Health

5) Animal Health

• Vermiculture• Bio-fertilisers• Stem nodulating

green manure crops

• Bioremediation

• Genetic Resistance• Biopesticides

• Vaccines• High quality

feeds and fodder

6) Environment

• Biomonitoring through Bio-indicators

• Higher Carbon Sequestration

4) Post-harvest Technology

• New strains with improved keeping, processing and transport qualities

IFOAM : Genetic Engineering is excluded in organic agriculture

Biotechnology and Organic Agriculture

“We are committed to study, share and facilitate the responsible use of biotechnology in addressing development needs”

Civil Society Organisations’ Declaration

“Genetically modified organisms represent a threat to family farmers, other food producers, the integrity of genetic resources and human and environmental health. They will affect particularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly alternative”

World Food Summit Plus 5,Rome (June 10-13, 2002)Declaration on Biotechnology

The Way Ahead

Our ability to achieve a paradigm shift from

green to an ever-green revolution and our ability

to face the challenges of global warming and

sea level rise will depend upon our ability to

harmonise organic farming and the new

genetics.

Genetic Modification in Crop Plants:IFOAM Concerns and Way Ahead

S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead

1.1. Negative and irreversible Negative and irreversible environmental impactsenvironmental impacts

Needs careful monitoring; no Needs careful monitoring; no documentary proof so fardocumentary proof so far

2.2. Release of organisms Release of organisms which have never before which have never before existed in nature and which existed in nature and which cannot be recalledcannot be recalled

Applies to micro-organisms. First Applies to micro-organisms. First patent for a LMO patent for a LMO PseudomonasPseudomonas was obtained by Anand was obtained by Anand Chakroborty in 1981. No Chakroborty in 1981. No problem reported so far, but problem reported so far, but prospects for bio-terrorism need prospects for bio-terrorism need surveillancesurveillance

3.3. Pollution of the gene-pool Pollution of the gene-pool of cultivated crops, micro-of cultivated crops, micro-organisms and animalsorganisms and animals

Declaring centres of origin and Declaring centres of origin and diversity as GMO free diversity as GMO free sanctuariessanctuaries

Contd…


4.4. Denial of free choice, both Denial of free choice, both for farmers and consumersfor farmers and consumers

Genetic literacy; labelling of GM Genetic literacy; labelling of GM foodsfoods

5.5. Violation of farmers’ Violation of farmers’ fundamental property fundamental property rights and endangerment rights and endangerment of their independenceof their independence

Safeguarding Farmers’ Rights Safeguarding Farmers’ Rights through legislation and getting a through legislation and getting a Universal Declaration on “The Universal Declaration on “The Plant Genome and Farmers’ Plant Genome and Farmers’ Rights” adopted in FAORights” adopted in FAO

6.6. Practices which are Practices which are incompatible with the incompatible with the principles of sustainable principles of sustainable agricultureagriculture

Avoiding genetic homogeneity Avoiding genetic homogeneity and thereby genetic vulnerability and thereby genetic vulnerability to biotic and abiotic stresses to biotic and abiotic stresses through an integrated system of through an integrated system of pre-breeding and participatory pre-breeding and participatory breeding with farm familiesbreeding with farm families

Contd…


7.7. Unacceptable threats to Unacceptable threats to human healthhuman health

Strengthening screening for Strengthening screening for allergenic properties; developing allergenic properties; developing and adopting “and adopting “clean geneclean gene” ” transformation techniques.transformation techniques.

8.8. Ban GMOs in all Ban GMOs in all agricultureagriculture

Fifty years of research since the Fifty years of research since the discovery of the Double Helix discovery of the Double Helix structure of DNA has revealed structure of DNA has revealed enormous potential for the safe enormous potential for the safe and responsible use of genetic and responsible use of genetic engineering in medicine, agri-engineering in medicine, agri-culture, industry and environment culture, industry and environment protection (bio-monitoring and protection (bio-monitoring and bio-remediation). Rather than bio-remediation). Rather than repeat Lysenkoism in scientific repeat Lysenkoism in scientific enquiry, it is important that enquiry, it is important that mandatory codes of conduct and mandatory codes of conduct and regulatory mechanisms which regulatory mechanisms which inspire public confidence are put inspire public confidence are put in place.in place.

NGO DeclarationFAO Rome World Food Summit Plus Five (2002)


1.1. GMOs represent a threat to GMOs represent a threat to family farmers and other family farmers and other food producersfood producers

Need for greater public under-Need for greater public under-standing and public-professional standing and public-professional consensus on threats and consensus on threats and opportunitiesopportunities

2.2. GMOs affect the integrity GMOs affect the integrity of genetic resources and of genetic resources and environmental healthenvironmental health

Declare areas of origin and Declare areas of origin and diversity of crop plants as GMO-diversity of crop plants as GMO-free zones; Avoid genetic free zones; Avoid genetic homogeneityhomogeneity

3.3. GMOs affect adversely GMOs affect adversely human healthhuman health

Both the science (eg. antibiotic Both the science (eg. antibiotic markers) and food safety markers) and food safety standards need careful review; standards need careful review; Codex alimentariusCodex alimentarius standards standards have to be appropriately have to be appropriately reformulatedreformulated


4.4. GMOs will affect parti-GMOs will affect parti-cularly the rural poor, who cularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly cannot afford this costly alternativealternative

Public policies which can ensure Public policies which can ensure that appropriate genetic material that appropriate genetic material reach the unreached should be reach the unreached should be put in place. They come under put in place. They come under the non-trade distorting pro-the non-trade distorting pro-visions of WTO.visions of WTO.

5.5. Monopolistic control by Monopolistic control by Multi-national companies Multi-national companies over food securityover food security

Enlarge support to public good Enlarge support to public good research both National and research both National and InternationalInternational

“The problem before us is how to feed billions of new mouths over the next several decades and save the rest of life at the same time, without being trapped in a Faustian bargain that threatens freedom from security. The benefits must come from an evergreen revolution. The aim of this new thrust is to lift food production well above the level attained by the green revolution of the 1960s, using technology and regulatory policy more advanced and even safer than now in existence”

Edward O. Wilson, 2002 The Future of life

Ever-green Revolution