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© 2012 IBM Corporation
Smarter Planetmegatrends- Jørgen Floes, Chief Architect Nordic SO Delivery
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 2
The IT world is changing - driven by shifts in market dynamics and client needs
Analytics2
Through 2015, more than 90% of business leaders contend information
is a strategic asset, yet fewer than 10% will quantify its economic value
Big Data1
Through 2015, more than 85 percent of Fortune 500 organizations will fail
to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage
Mobile Enterprise5
66% of CIOs ranked mobility as a top investment priority in 2012
Social Business3
By 2014, 20% of business users will replace email as the primary
interpersonal communications with social networking
Security7
Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per
year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities
Cloud6
63% of companies already are using (Cloud) or expect to use it in 2012, up
from 49% last year
Growth Markets8
By 2015, IDC expects emerging markets to generate
over 33% of all IT spending
Smarter Planet4
IBM Smarter industry solutions will grow 5x faster than total solutions
CustomerSets
Softw
are
Tech
nolo
gy
Ser
vice
s
Hardware
Business Services
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 3
IBM’s transformation has gone through distinct phases in the past decade; the “smarter” phase of the journey is underway2002Sharing & partnering
2010Making things smarter
Instrumented, interconnected, intelligent
Enable growth and productivity
Optimize the whole system
2006Globally integrating
Right skills, right place, right cost
Rationalize support functions for greater efficiency
Radically simplify processes
Consistent set of processes worldwide
Leverage best practices
Standardize and reduce waste
Governance and performance discipline
Being essential
New era of computing
Changing client
Evolving IBMer
2012
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Global Technology Outlook
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 5
IBM Global Technology Outlook Objectives
GTO identifies significant technology trends early. It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon.
Technology thresholds identified in a GTO demonstrate their influence on clients, enterprises, & industries and have high potential to create new businesses.
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 6
GTO 2012 – The Genetic Map
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Technology example: The Watson System
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Future Systems – The Learning Paradigm
Training and Learning EnginesTo Build Models and Define Insight
Hypothesis EnginesTo Understand and Plan Actions
Policy EngineBusiness, Legal
and Ethical Rules
Verification Engines(e.g. Simulations)
Active Learning
(Natural Interfaces)
Outcome EngineActuation and Validation
Society Nature Institutions Archives
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 9
Watson – a Workload Optimized System
Hardware 90 x IBM Power 750 servers 2880 POWER7 3.55 GHz cores 500 GBps on-chip bandwidth 15 Terabytes of memory 500 GB of data (in memory)
Software IBM DeepQA, UIMA and UIMA AS Apache Hadoop
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Learning Systems Roadmap to Meet the Challenge
Greater Autonomy
Static Learning Systems
2010 2015 2020
Expert teams identify features across industries, create first commercial learning systems
Dynamic Learning SystemsDynamic Data CorpusExpand Hypothesis Generation to different domains (leverage crowd-sourcing)Add Scorers for Different Input Modalities: images, video, voice, environmental, biological; leverage new devices & hardware acceleration Deeper Reasoning: Allow higher-levels of semantic abstraction. Leverage new hardware. Domain Adaptation Tools
Autonomous Learning Systems
Achieve understandingof natural language, images and other sensory information. Hypothesis and question generation across arbitrary domains; meta-heuristic to automate algorithm choices
Keyword Search
Delivers lists based on keywords & human filters
1985
Biological Inspiration: Cognitive Process Understanding
Autonomously & accurately identify essential features across multiple domains.Learning systems must understand context to disambiguate.
Watson
2025
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Big Data and Predictive GovernanceSpeaker: Steven Adler
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 12
Internet of Things Scenarios Show a Pattern of Customer Pain Points
Collecting information to provide better service and work smarter Establishing the smarter planet!
Food SafetyWater Management Grid
TransportationHome HealthcareLogistics
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 1313
Forecasting a hurricane(www.noaa.gov)
Fitting a curve to data
Model UncertaintyAll modeling is approximate
Process UncertaintyProcesses contain
“randomness”
Uncertainty of data arises from many sources
Uncertain travel times
Semiconductor yield
Intended Spelling Text Entry
Actual Spelling
GPS Uncertainty
???
RumorsContaminated?
{John Smith, Dallas}{John Smith, Kansas}
Data UncertaintyData input is uncertain
Ambiguity{Paris Airport}Testimony
Conflicting Data
?? ?
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Glo
bal D
ata
Volu
me
in E
xaby
tes
Sens
ors
(Inte
rnet
of T
hings
)
Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Agg
rega
te U
ncer
tain
ty %
VoIP
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005 2010 2015
By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain
Enterprise Data
Data quality solutions exist for enterprise data like customer, product, and address data, but
this is only a fraction of the total enterprise data.
By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All
sensor data has uncertainty.
Social Media
(video, audio and text)
The total number of social media accounts exceeds the entire global
population. This data is highly uncertain in both its expression and content.
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 15
Every Smarter Planet Solution has Big Data and Needs Big Analytics
Smarter Planet
Data at RestData in MotionDeep AnalyticsReactive AnalyticsPredictive ModelsReal-time AwarenessDeeper InsightsFaster Decisions
Big Data
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 16
Up to 10,000 Times larger
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence
Dat
a Sc
ale
Dat
a Sc
ale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms s
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Dat
a at
Res
t
New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics
Telco Promotions100,000 records/sec, 6B/day10 ms/decision270TB for Deep Analytics
DeepQA 100s GB for Deep Analytics 3 sec/decision
Smart Traffic250K GPS probes/sec630K segments/sec2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Homeland Security600,000 records/sec, 50B/day1-2 ms/decision320TB for Deep Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Smarter Computing: Expert Integrated SystemsSpeaker: Jean-Michel Rodriguez
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 18
Big Data Systems Require a Data-centric Architecture for Performance
Data lives on disk and tapeMove data to CPU as neededDeep Storage Hierarchy
Data lives in persistent memoryMany CPU’s surround and useShallow/Flat Storage Hierarchy
Old Compute-centric Model New Data-centric Model
Massive ParallelismPersistent Memory
Largest change in system architecture since the System 360 Huge impact on hardware, systems software, and application design
Flash Phase Change
Manycore FPGA
inputoutput
Smarter Planet megatrends
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HDD cost advantage continues, 1/10 SCM cost, but
SCM dominates in performance, 10,000x faster than HDD
Storage Class Memory - The Tipping Point for Data-centric Systems
Relative Cost
Relative Latency
DRAM 100 1SCM 1 10
FLASH 15 1000HDD 0.1 100000
Source: Chung Lam, IBM
FLASH
(Phase Change)
SCM in 2015$0.05 per GB$50K per PB$0.10 / GB
$0.01 / GB
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 20
2015 Vision: The Peta2 Data-centric System Goal
– Data-centric, latency optimized, massive capacity system for long-running analytics and simulation applications
Requirements– 1 Petaflop performance, massively parallel– 1 Petabyte BPRAM– Extremely low latency, high bandwidth interconnect
(Xapt)
Assumptions– Majority of data stays resident in memory for long
periods, minority of data updated continually– Persistent Memory becomes primary storage
This system can become the System 360 equivalent for the Era of Analytics
Petascale = Petaflop OR PetabytePetaflop x Petabyte = Peta2
2015 Peta2 Data-centric SystemPOWER 8/A2, BPRAM ITEs on Harrier
Peta2 AnalyticsAppliance
+Reactive+Deep Analytics
Platform
Relative SystemDensity per Rack
Peta2
1x
12x
1.4x2.3x
281x 336x
35.7x
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 21
Announcing the First Two Members of the IBM PureSystems Family
Infrastructure System: Expert at sensing andanticipating resource
needs to optimize yourinfrastructure
Platform System: Expert at optimally
deploying and runningapplications for rapid
time-to-value
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 22
Applications
Storage
Networking
Virtualization
ManagementCompute
Tools
Flexible and open choice in a fully integrated system
IBM PureFlex System is Integrated by design Expert
IntegratedSystems
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Mobility: Enabling mobile workstyles and embrasing cloudSpeaker: Erik Pedersen
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Advancing the Workplace of the Future
24
Smarter Planet megatrends
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Mobile device adoption, focused on accelerating security
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Social BusinessSpeaker: Stuart McRae
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 27
Adoption of Social Tools is Increasing Rapidly
Public
Companies plan to increase spending on social despite recessionGrowth in Adult Social Network Site Use, 2005-2009
Enterprise
Fortune Global 100 Companies
Companies with ...65%
54% 50%
33%
TwitterAccounts
FacebookFan Pages
YouTubeChannels
CorporateBlogs
Twitter Accounts
65% 72% 71%
40%
67%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
Facebook Fan Pages
54%69%
52%40% 33%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
50%59%
52%35% 33%
Total US Europe Asia LatAm
YouTube AccountsUS Mobile Subscribers Accessing Social Sites
Source:Burston-Marsteller
Jan-09 Jan-10 Change
Facebook 11,874 25,137 112%
MySpace 12,338 11,439 -7%
Twitter 1,051 4,700 347%
(Thousands)
Source:comScore MobiLens
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 28
Convergence of Social and Analytic Technologies Transform the Way Businesses Operate
Socially Synergistic Enterprise SolutionsNew top-line opportunities, better relationships with customers and partners,
enhanced talent pool, increased resiliency and efficiency
Data
Data aggregation Smart filtering Meaning extraction Consumable analytics Process orchestration Stream processing
Analytics
Customer Sentiment Unmet Needs Talent Discovery Reasoning and Decision Support Crowdsensing, Crowdsourcing Teaming, Incentives, Motivation
Society
Organizations
Teams
Individuals
Social
SocialData from and about People
PhysicalSensors & Streams
Enterprise
Business Process
Transformation
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 29
Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Can Provide Differentiating Value
Physical Meets DigitalCustomer Care and Insight Workforce Optimization
Financial Operations Smarter Commerce Advanced Case Management
Smarter Planet megatrends
Smarter Planet megatrends - © 2012 IBM Corporation 30
Thank you!