Roadmap for the Trillion Sensor Universe

Dr. Janusz Bryzek

Chair, TSensors Summit

Vice President, MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor

Gilt Tech New York, November 26, 2013

2

Self Introduction

• Education• Warsaw University of Technology: MSEE and Ph.D.

• Stanford University: Executive Management Program

• Started 7 high-tech (MEMS) companies in Silicon Valley:1982 Sensym (now Honeywell)

1982 IC Sensors (now Measurement Specialties)

1985 NovaSensor (now General Electric)

1995 Intelligent MicroSensor Technology (now Maxim)

2000 Transparent Networks (now Intel)

2004 LV Sensors (now Atmel)

2009 Jyve (now Fairchild Semiconductor)

• Performed due diligence for local VC firms and work as Board Member or

Advisor for over 40 startups.

• Recognized as “Entrepreneur of the Year” by Arthur Young in 1989.

• Recognized in the industry as Father of Sensors.

• Awarded the Lifetime Achievement Awards:– By Sensors Magazine In 1994 and by MANCEF in 2003.

My field: MEMS (micromechanics) and NEMS (nanomechanics).

3

NovaSensorSelected MEMS Devices from my Companies

Acceleration sensor Catheter tip pressure sensor

Microwave power meterFirst DRIE based

hydrophone

First fusion bonded pressure sensor.

Shipped so far over billion units

First DRIE pressure sensor

Pressure Sensor

2 Axis Acceleration

Sensor

ASIC

Tire pressure sensor

Tire pressure sensor moduleEnergy scavenger

1200 fiber block with lens arrayIntegrated 2D mirror Million pixel optical

position detector

1000x1000 port optical switchConsumer inertial sensors

4

Outline

• Quick look at VC funding

• Introduction to Abundance

• Overview of Trillion Sensor Universe

• The Amazing Word of Sensor Based Products

5

Introduction: US VC Funding

https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/index.jsp

6

Silicon Valley vs New York

7

Top Software VC Investments SV-NY, Q3/2013

8

Abundance* Vision• The biggest global problems, such as hunger, lack

of medical care, lack of clean water and lack of

energy, can be solved in one generation (20

years) through:

– Exponential technologies.

• Networked sensors are one of eight exponential

technologies.

– DIY (Do-it-Yourself) revolution.

– Unrivaled in history technophilanthropic force.

– The rising billion.

2013 2023 2033 2043

Global Goods and Services

Demand

Supply

* http://www.abundancethebook.com/

9

Abundance EnablersExponential technologies:

– Biotechnology and bioinformatics

– Medicine

– Nanomaterials and nanotechnology

– Networks and sensors (45 trillion networked sensors in 20 years).

– Digital manufacturing (3D printing) and infinite computing

– Computational systems

– Artificial intelligence

– Robotics

DIY (Do-it-Yourself) revolution:– Power of individual innovators capable of “impossibles”.

– E.g., flying into space (Burt Rattan) and sequencing human genome (Craig Venter).

Unrivaled in history technophilanthropic force:

– Funded by billionaires (Gates, Zuckenberg, Omidyars, Elon Musk, etc.).

The rising billion:

– Billion of the very poorest of the poor on earth is being plugged into global economy

through a global transportation network, Internet, microfinance and wireless

communication.

10

Abundance Aftershock*

• Rapid market evolution is expected to replace 40% of current Fortune 500

companies within 10 years…

• By companies we didn‟t hear about yet.

* Peter Diamandis, November 2013

11

Why TSensors Movement

• Abundance* movement is forecasting elimination of major global problems in

one generation, 20 to 30 years.

• This will require (among others) 45 trillion sensors, many of which are not yet

developed.

• Historical sensor development cycles from prototypes in academic labs to

volume production were 30 years.

• Left to historical cycles, new sensor would delay Abundance.

• TSensors movement is aiming at acceleration of sensor development cycles, to

accelerate Abundance.

12

TSensors Acceleration Approach

• Invite visionaries to predict many of the new ultrahigh volume sensor based

applications to generate an upfront development focus. – Ultrahigh volumes are required to enable global impact.

– 2013 TSensors Summit collected the first set of such visions.

• Convert visionary sensor applications into a limited number of TSensing

Platforms.– This will be a first step towards potential process standardization, maximizing the number of

supported applications for each platform.

• Open the development challenges to crowd genius (global development

community)• Perhaps form dedicated development organizations (startups) with Board or Advisory Board

including entrepreneurs with scars in sensor technology commercialization.

• Facilitate funding the development of TSensing Platforms• Potentially include target customers, supply chain companies, crowdfunding, techno-philanthropic

organizations, Governments, academia-Government-industry consortia, Cooptition and Incentive

Competition (similar to XPrize Foundation‟s in multiple health sensing areas).

13

Trillion Sensors (TSensors) Visions

• Mobile sensor market for volumes not

envisioned by leading market research

organizations in 2007, grew exponentially

212%/y between 2007 and 2012.

• Several organizations created visions for a

continued growth to trillion(s).• Market research companies don‟t yet see it.

• Explosion to trillion(s) is likely to be driven by new

applications not yet envisioned by leading market

research organization.

• Forecasting thus needs visionaries!

14

Global Tides Driving Demand for Sensors• Global (somewhat overlapping) tides driving demand for smart

systems include:

• Mobile market

• Transitioning to unPad like infrastructure.

• Wearable market

• Bringing fitness, wellness and health monitoring to all of us.

• Digital Health

• Improving health diagnostics and therapeutics while reducing cost.

• Internet of Things

• Connecting devices around us through new network architecture to

enable low latency control.

• Context Computing

• Deriving information about us (such as feelings) and around us.

• CeNSE, Central Nervous System for the Earth, building global

environment monitoring.

• 5-in-5

• Five senses for computers in five years

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Global Tides will Ride on Smart Systems• Smart Systems are defined by Harbor Research* as a fusion of computing,

communication and sensing.

• Forecasted growth to trillions is for Smart Systems, not just sensors!

• Enable people, machines, devices, sensors, and businesses to interact.

• This enables new modes of collaboration and intelligence called “Smart

Business”, thus:

• Truly connected world of machines, people, video streams, maps, newsfeeds, and

sensors.

• Convergence of physical & virtual worlds, thus enabling collective awareness,

creativity, and better decision making capabilities.

• Many observers believe that this phenomenon will drive the largest growth

opportunity in the history of business.

• Largest bull market over the next 20 years?

* http://harborresearch.com/

19

Period Estimate MEMS SEMI MEMS+SEMI

2013-2018

Low 15%/y 3%/y 3.6%/y

High 30%/y 3%/y 5.9%/y

2018-2023

Low 20%/y 6%/y 6.7%/y

High 50%/y 6%/y 12.3%/y

MEMS Migration into MainstreamGrowth Assumptions:

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Can We Afford Trillion Sensors?• 2023 global GDP should be

around $100T.

• IoT alone is forecasted by Cisco

and GE around $15T by 2020.

• 15% of GDP!

• Networked sensor market was

estimated by Cisco to reach $1T

in 2020.

• Networked sensor cost $1.

• We can afford trillion sensors at

the right price.Global GDP could reach $100 trillion by 2023. (Historical Data (blue) from Wikipedia. Extrapolation (red-pink) by

Bryzek). IoT forecast from Cisco and GE.

21

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…Assuming an average revenue per employee in developed countries at:

– $200,000/year for component companies

– $500,000/year (equal to 2011 NASDAQ 100 average) for smart system companies.

Assuming further, based on Cisco forecast:

– Average selling price of the wireless smart sensor at $1.

– Smart system selling price $15.

Trillion smart system would thus represent in 2023:

– 5 million new direct jobs in component industries.

– 30 million new direct jobs in system industries.

Assuming indirect jobs multiplier of 3, this would result in 105 million additional jobs,

for a total of 140 million jobs.

– Indirect job multiplier for knowledge workers has been between 2 and 4 (depending

on region).

– As a reference, the US created only 1.3M new jobs in the last 10 years, primarily in

Government and medical sectors.

22

Jobs Where?• Sensor based systems require a high-tech work force.

• Majority of created jobs will likely be for knowledge workers.

• An example of a sensor based system could be Apple‟s iPhone 4s, which had

the following breakdown of 2011 selling price:

– 3% ($14) cost of assembly (China)

– 32% ($178) cost of components (global)

– 66% ($368) Apple‟s share (US)

100% ($560) selling price

• Most of “sensor and smart systems” jobs will likely be in industrialized countries.

Fortune Magazine 2011

23

Challenges for TSensors• User adoption.

• Cycle time for commercialization.

• Standardization.

• Development of algorithms

enabling derivation of useful

information.

• Bandwidth sharing wireless

communication.

• Battery/scavenger sources

enabling power for life.

• Network architecture enabling low

latency control.

• Scaling network size enabling

processing of sensor generated

data at the level of Brontobytes.

• Available funding.

24

Software for TSensors

• Sensors fusion

– E.g., Kalman filter merging data from acceleration, rate, magnetic and pressure

sensors. to improve accuracy and lower processing power.

• Data fusion

– E.g., merging data from inertial sensors, GPS and weather service.

• Sensing services

– E.g., providing oil location and its quantity based of underground explosions

monitored by millions sensors.

• Big data

– E.g., collecting and processing 16 bit data from all sensors (e.g., 12) in all cellphones

(e.g., 5 billion) with 100 Hz data rate (3 ZettaBytes/year)

• Small data

– Processed big data, e.g., you just exceeded your calorie intake for the day; stop

eating.

Multiple startups popped to address sensor generated data.

25

Incentives for TSensors Adoption• Cost reduction of medical care, currently growing out of control.

– Insurance companies are already funding development of new technologies potentially reducing

health care cost.

• E.g., IBM‟s Dr. Watson, http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/2019-telemedicine-and-m-health-

convergence-market-shares-strategies-and-forecasts-worldwide-347599.htm).

– Governments will be doing their share as well.

• A recent example could be Massachusetts Life Science Commission funding projects across the state of

Massachusetts universities at $240M, including Personalized Health Monitoring at UMass Amherst at $95M.

• Improved quality of medical care and prevention.• We will be personally monitoring our health, enabling us not only to do a better job based on

measured data than doctor‟s office, but also able to detect many problems very early.

• This will be a strong incentive for users‟ adoption.

• Energy savings.• For example, some estimate about 30% of office building HVAC energy cost reduction when smart

HVAC systems are installed, a very short ROI.

• Fun

• As Intel presented last year, about 30% of trillion sensors will be changing our

lifestyles, giving us more fun, thus easy adoption.

26

Incentives for TSensors Adoption• Government policies

• Many countries already have mandated reduction of pollution of air, water, food,

reduction of energy use, etc.

• E.g., past Governments regulations in automotive industry, drove massive adoption of

sensors improving fuel economy (pressure, flow, exhaust) and safety (acceleration, gyro) and

pollution (pressure, flow, exhaust).

– The compliance will require deployment of smart systems.

• Motivations for academia, Governments and industry:

– Emergence of very large market.

– Challenging problems to solve.

– Creation of new jobs.

– Acceleration of Abundance.

27

Accelerating Development through Competition

• $2.25M Nokia Sensing XChallenge

• Nanobiosym Health Radar won $525,000 Grand Prize award in 2013.

• Enables testing of a drop of blood or saliva with a nanochip inserted into a mobile device. It

detects the presence (or absence) of selected disease's pathogen in real-time, with gold

standard accuracy.

• $120,000 Distinguished Award winners demonstrated game-changing technology:

• Elfi-Tech - Using advanced optics in a device smaller than a penny, non-invasively measures

skin blood flow, velocity, coagulation and vascular health.

• InSilixa - Using blood, saliva or urine, created a single CMOS chip that analyzes proteins

and nucleic acids to detect diseases and health status.

• MoboSens - Water and biofluids can be analyzed rapidly with smartphone-based sensor that

reports on the presence of chemical contaminants and bacteria.

• Owlstone - Using a "digital nose" sensor, can detect the presence of chemicals in

concentrations down to parts per trillion. identifying disease from user's breath or body fluids.

• Silicon BioDevices - Using blood drawn from a small finger stick, sensor diagnoses and

transmits results to mobile devices or electronic medical record (EMR) systems.

• Qualcomm‟s $10M Xprize competition to detect 15 most common diseases and

2014 Nokia competitions are still open.

• 34 teams competing.

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TSensorsNext Step: Roadmap• TSensors Summits collected visions for the ultrahigh volume sensor

applications likely to emerge over the next decade.

• Next Steps:

• Conversion of applications into Sensing Platforms

• Characterizing technology options for each sensing platforms as TSensors Roadmap.

2929

The Amazing Word of

Sensor Based Products

30

Yole 2012

MEMS Studded Mobile Devices$CAGR: 35%/year!

Samsung Galaxy S4: MEMS usage

leader. Additionally, it has:

• 3 microphones

• Over 30 FBARs filters

31

Startup Studded Emerging Market

32

Sampler 1: Amazing Sensor Based Products

Breast lumps self-exams

(mammogram) sensor from Eclipse Breast Health Technologies

Smart sock from Owlet Baby Care

monitors infant‟s quality of sleep, blood

oxygenation levels, and skin

temperature

iSonea personal asthma

wheeze monitor

Fraunhofer‟s glucose, lactate and

cholesterol sensors, pulse oximeter,

and a fluorescence sensor for

detecting biomarkers

Hexoskin‟s sensor-packed T-

shirt analyzing movement,

breathing and heart activity

Preventice „s smart bandage

constantly tracks cardiac ECG and

rhythm monitoring

3333

http://www.omsignal.com/

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Sampler 2: Amazing Sensor Based Products

Nike‟s smart shoe insert with

8 sensors

Shake stabilized spoon for

Parkinson disease patients from

Lift Labs

Mobile Xray station from

Tribogenics

Tatooed sensors from UCSD

Breast cancer killing chip from

Northwestern University

Ultrasound scanner from

Mobisante

35

Sampler 3: Amazing Sensor Based Products

EKG monitor from AliveCor

Uchek (MIT) detects 25 diseases,

such as diabetes, urinary tract

infections, and pre-clampsia,

levels of glucose, proteins,

ketones, and more.

Lapka can detect radiation

and organicity of food. Smart tennis racket from Babolat

Brainwaves driven ears from

Necomimi express your emotional

state before you start talking.

MUSE: The Brain-Sensing

Headband that lets you control

things with your mind

36

Cuffless Blood Pressure Measurement

Sotera Wireless‟ non-invasive

measures continuous blood

pressure, along with pulse

rate, skin temperature,

electrocardiogram, blood

oxygenation and respiration

rate and temperature.

Cnoga‟s device spectrometrically

measures noninvasively blood

pressure, blood oxygen, and

pulse.

HealthStats watch measures blood

pressure using applanation

tonometry.

37

Noninvasive Glucose Monitoring

Integrity Applications‟

employs a combination

of ultrasound,

electromagnetic, and

thermal technologies to

obtain blood glucose

readings

Echo launched a non-

invasive continuous

glucose monitoring

system based on

proprietary skin

permeation

Biosensors „ approach is

based on electromagnetic

impedance spectroscopy

(EIS) and electromagnetic

impedance tomography

(EIT).

Cnoga‟s device measuresglucose, heartbeat, skin

resistance, quality of skin collagen, skin health and identifies nervous people based of color change of

RGB lights passing through skin.

C8 MediSensors developed

Raman spectroscopy based

glucose sensor, raised $43M in

2012 and closed in 2013 after

finding measurement instability.

Apple hired several of former

employees

38

Printed Paper Microfluidics

• Lab-on-Chip can be multilayer printed

on paper.

• Is low-cost, easy-to-use, disposable,

and equipment-free.

• Promising technology particularly

relevant to improving the healthcare and

disease screening in the no- or low

infrastructure developing world.

• Applications:

Health diagnostics (e.g., urinalysis, saliva

analysis, sputum analysis, pregnancy test, blood

type)

Biochemical analysis (e.g., enzyme activity)

Environment monitoring

Food quality control

Forensic (e.g., detection of blood)

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3365319/#c19

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Blood Testing based on Lab on Chip

Palo Alto startup Theranos rolled out blood testing

(starting with Walgreens in Palo Alto) after

$100M+ funding:

– 1000x reduced blood volume for about 200

blood tests.

• Likely enabled by Lab on Chip with fluorescent

tags.

– Providing results in 4 hours

– With increased accuracy.

– At a fraction of lab cost.

40

Intelligent Pills

Swallowable capsule includes:

– Pump

– Drug reservoir

– Wireless radio.

– Imaging chips.

– µController.

– Temperature sensor.

– Battery.

Delivery of drugs to treat

digestive tract disorders

directly to the location of the

illness, enables smaller dose,

reducing side effects.

41

Chemical Sensors: the Next Revolution

42

Spectrometer: the Next Gyro-like Tornado?

Testing Sweetness of AAPL?

Source: nanoLambda

fresh milk vs. old milk

2 alcohol samplesfresh

4 days

6 days

43

Hyperspectral Imaging

44

45

Breath Diagnostics

• Dogs are trained to detect medical problems based on breath due to their extreme smell sensitivity:

• Low sugar level in diabetics or cancer.

• What can be smelled with chemical sensors:

• Cancer

• Cholesterol

• Asthma

• Lipid peroxidation

• Metabolism

• Neonatal jaundice, intestinal distress

• Cystic fibrosis/bronchitis

• Periodontal disease

• Infectious disease (flu)

• Etc.

Source: Dr. J. Stetter, SRI

46

iBreath

A new product turns iPod into an alcohol

breathalyzer.

The $79 accessory plugs into the base of the iPod

and functions like a field sobriety test.

– The person using the iBreath exhales into a

retractable "blow wand"

– Within two seconds, it displays the results on an

LED screen.

– A reading of 0.08 or above sets off an alarm,

signaling a blood-alcohol level above the legal limit

in all 50 states.

• Developed by David Steele Enterprises Inc. in

Newport Beach.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-idrunk19-2008dec19,0,3073178.story

47

TI‟s IR Vein Viewer

Displays location of veins for nurses.

MEMS mirror controlled infrared light is converted to visible image through the foil.

48

THz Imaging

Skin tumor and breast cancer detection

1

0

THz image

4 mm

Wallace et. al, Faraday Discuss. 126 (2004) Arnone et. al, Physics World, April (2000)

Tooth decay detection

Mona Jarrahi , Berkeley Sensor and Actuator Center

Terahertz radiation penetrates fabric, wood, plastic, and even clouds, but not metal or water.

49

Finding a Bacteria in Blood

• LoC separates bacteria (grey) from human blood

cells (red) for quick identification, while keeping both

sets of cells alive.

• Red blood cells and bacteria separate as they are

deflected to different extents by liquid introduced

from a side channel.

• The cells' deflection can be tuned to direct particles

of a certain size to specific collection chambers.

• LOC isolates bacteria directly without first needing

to culture the samples, a time consuming process.

Red blood cells and bacteria (grey) separate as they are deflected to different extents by liquid introduced from a side channel

Soft inertial microfluidics for high throughput separation of bacteria from human blood cellsZhigang Wu, Ben Willing, Joakim Bjerketorp, Janet K. Jansson and Klas Hjort, Lab Chip, 2009

50

Neurano

• Multidisciplinary project to integrate carbon

nanotubes (CNT) with a multielectrode array

to develop an new generation of biochips to

repair damaged central nervous system

tissues.

• New CNT-based interface with state-of-the-

art stimulation of brain-machine is key to

developing all types of neuroprostetics:

– Sight

– Sound

– Smell

– Motion

– Vetoing epileptic attacks

– Spinal bypasses

– Repairing and enhancing cognitive functions.

http://www.neuronano.net/Home.aspx?section=1

51

PharmacoGenomics

• Deals with the influence of genetic variation on drug response in patients.

• Promises "personalized medicine“

• Drugs and drug combinations optimized for each individual's unique genetic makeup.

• Emerged after the first complete sequencing of human genome in 2001.

– Is considered the next fundamental development in human medicine:

– Promises an era of individualized patient care and personal medicine.

– Uses markers in individuals‟ genetic code to pinpoint underlying causes of disease.

• Transforms medicine from prescribing treatment based on patient‟s symptoms, to therapies based on patient‟s genetics.

• Promises to cure diseases rather than alleviate symptoms.

52

Anti-Aging Revolution

• Calorie restricted (CR) starvation diet was

shown to extend many species life span by a

30% to 40%.

• Around 2000, several biotech startups were

formed to bring CR benefit with normal diet.

– Transformed the guessing game into drug

development program.

– Target to switch ON complex mechanism

embedded in our genomes to postpone and

possibly attenuate myriads of ills brought by

aging.

• Compounds capable of regulating key effects

of CR in rodents have come to light.

• Soon to be available to humans…

52

Four Potential Breakthrough Drugs

Rapamycin (derived from Easter Island soil bacteria): first compound to convincingly extend live in mammals.

Resveratrol (derived from grape skin): somewhat less effective than rapamycin.

Metformin (derived from French lilac plant): shows promise.

Mannoheptulose (derived from avocados): a sugar with multiple CR like effects in rodents.

Source: Fortune Magazine, June 14, 2010

53

Playing the God?

• A new form of life has been created in a laboratory!

• J. Craig Venter Institute made a piece of DNA that carries about 1,000 genes,

from off-the-shelf laboratory chemicals.

– First creature since the beginning of creatures that has no ancestor.

– What it is, and how it lives, depends entirely on a design put together by and held on

the institute‟s computers.

• The first of these artificial creatures showed that it could reproduce on its own:

• The age of artificial life has began…

Science Magazine, May 20th, 2010

54

Summary

• Future will be more amazing than shown products sampler.

• Creating New Future will trigger multiple market Tornados, redefining global

economies and providing room for many new companies.

• Byproducts of these Tornados:

Abundance, eliminating major global problems.

Medical diagnostic will become faster, cheaper, portable, wireless… personal.

We will start curing diseases rather than alleviate symptoms.

All of us will live longer and healthier, in less polluted and more energy efficient world.

We will have more fun than ever.

The biggest bull market in history?

The first MEMS/NEMS/Bio Billionaires may emerge…

Thank you