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By Camilo Zea. Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.
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Transforming Transportation 2010
Next Steps after Copenhagen: Opportunities and Challenges in the
Transport Sector
Promoting Sustainable Transport in Bogota
January, 2010Camilo Zea
Metro Project
Bogotá in figures• Demographic data• Central Administration’s Finances• Public Transport System• Transport Policy
Demographic data
7 million inhabitants, 15% of Colombia Covers an area of 37,414 Ha High density (310 Hab/Ha) 1.2 million of private vehicles 18.000 buses Public transport’s average speed 18 Km/hr BRT system begun a decade ago
During the last 100 years Bogotá’s population has multiplied by 50, duplicating as a consequence its
density
1940
1950
1538 - 1912
1912 - 1939
1960 1970
1980
1990
Density: 149 hab/ha.
Density: 156 hab/ha.
Density: 157hab/ha.
Density: 222 hab/ha.
Density: 222 hab/ha. Density: 250 hab/ha
Density: 276hab/ha.
Density: 306 hab/ha.
Urban Transformation
2008
2038
Density: 310 hab/ha.
Density: 310hab/ha.
Urban Transformation Forecast 2008-2038
Population 2008: 7.155.052 Hab Population 2038:9.312.689 Hab
Public Transport Trips’ Distribution
THE FORECAST FOR 2018 SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CITY WILL ATRACT MORE THAN
1.500.000 DAILY TRIPS
Source: Observatorio de Movilidad de Bogotá y la Región. CCB Nº 1. December 2007
• TransMilenio has improved the mobility of 28% of the public transport system. Today, it mobilizes more than 1.5 million passengers per day.
Over supply (more than 18,000 buses on service) High-demand corridors close to saturation 580 routes without hierarchy Overlapping routes: on-the-street competition for passengers,
known as “penny war” Inadequate operational scheme High rates of emissions and accidents
28%
72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1
Tran
sMile
nio
Bogotá’s Public Transport SystemTr
aditi
onal
pub
lic tr
ansp
ort
syst
em (c
olec
tivo)
Bogotá’s Transport Policy - City’s Masterplan 2006
POLICIES SCOPE
1. Sustainable Mobility Mobility as a right and as a tool to improve the quality of life
2. Competitive Mobility Efficient use of resources, to guarantee mobility of people and goods
3. Environmentally friendly Mobility
Environmentally friendly transport policies to ensure well being and health of citizens.
4. Pedestrians as our priority
Prevailing role of pedestrians as part of the whole transport system
5. Public Transport as the structuring axe
Public Transport , with all its modes, as the corner-stone of the mobility system
6. Modal Integration Integration of all transport modes to improve access to the urban mobility system. The integration will improve its range and coverage
7. Smart mobility Development of an information system to integrate the role of the different elements of the mobility system
8. Socially responsible mobility
Mobility externalities that must be assumed by its different actors
9. Target-based mobility Establishment of a performance model which works gradually to fulfill the principles of the city’s masterplan
TransMilenio• 10 years of achievements• Contribution to the environment
TransMilenio: 10 years of achivements
The TransMilenio system replaced 1,500 obsolete buses on major corridors with newer and larger vehicles (Euro II technology). The result has been a more efficient system that has improved the mobility of millions of people without operating subsidies
TransMilenio was also part of an urban renewal program bringing other improvements to the city such as new public spaces, pedestrian streets, and about 150 miles of bicycle paths connecting with the TransMilenio system (Vincent, 2007).
Travel time reductions (12 min average)
88% fatalities reduction
Deteriorated urban sectors recovered
Land value increase around trunk corridors
and stations
Creation and consolidation of strategic
sectors in the city
Public space generation
Real estate developments
Green house effect reduction. Significant
drops in CO2 s, PM10, NOx, SOx,
emissions
Socio-economic strata
Trav
el ti
me
(min
)
Average travel time reduction in minutes
Startegic areas
TransMilenio: 10 years of achivements
•TransMilenio is the first big scale transport project in the world registered in the United nations under the Kyoto protocol, to mitigate climate change and reduce green gases effect since 2006.
TransMilenio: Contribution to the environment
BRT TRANSMILENIOº Ton CO2 - CER´s Ton CO2 - VER´s
Emissions reductions per year Kyoto MarketPhase II
Voluntary MarketPhase I
2001 - 2005 - 721,901
2006 59,020 158,605
2007 69,885 167,026
2008 68,813 160,473
SUBTOTAL – VERIFIED/CERTIFIED 197,718 1,208,005
TOTAL REDUCTIONS 1,405,723
230.000 (avg.) CO2 tons savings per
year
BRT TransMilenio Income (Carbon certificates) $COP Income (Carbon certificates) $USD
Year Kyoto Market Phase II
2006-2007 $ 2,637,674,018.00 $ 1,318,837
2008 $ 1,407,958,592.00 $ 703,979
Exchange Rate COP$2,000 = USD $1 $ 4,045,632,610.00 $ 2,022,816
Challenges & opportunities
Our Challenges: Copenhagen climate change conference conclusions
• For all its limitations, however, the Copenhagen Accord is the first real step to fighting climate change in the 21st century. The real value of the summit may lie in what it teaches us about dealing with climate change. (TIME 2009)
• The negotiations at Copenhagen were so contentious because of the very real impact the proposals will have, not only for the environment, but also on national economies; therefore, the importance of promoting climate investment funds (CIF)
Colombia is the second country from LA (after México) developing an Investment Plan (IP) for financing of Public Transport Systems through the Clean Technology Fund (CTF).
• It is fundamental to support projects (e.g.. environmentally friendly and sustainable transport projects), as tools to tackle environmental damage
Source: http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_1949054,00.html#ixzz0bm4y6US0
Our Opportunities: Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Colombia Investment Plan
The Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Investment Plan is a “business plan” agreed among, and owned, by the Government of Colombia (GoC) for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to provide support for the low-carbon objectives contained in Colombia’s National Development Plan and its National Climate Change Strategy. (Bogotá’s IPTS proposed for CTF co-financing)
Transport is a major contributor to the carbon footprint of the country and is a sector where emissions will be difficult to abate; it is the fastest-growing source of CO2. The transport sector represents 33% of the country’s CO2e emissions from combustion of fossil fuels.
Source: IADB
Challenges & Opportunities
The sector has a great potential to reduce its carbon footprint through a wide range of low-carbon interventions
On a general level, there are three ways of reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector (Grütter, 2007):
• Reducing the demand for travel or transport services (e.g., by land use planning or regulatory instruments such as road taxes)
• Reducing the emissions per unit transported (e.g., by modal shift, increased occupancy rates, or use of larger units)
• Reducing the emissions per kilometer traveled (e.g., by improving driving behavior and vehicle efficiency or by switching to low-carbon fuels)
• In the case of Bogota, from the demand side, different policies to rationalize private vehicle use have been implemented since 2000, including plate number restrictions on specific days and promotion of car pooling.
• Along with this, the Integrated Public Transport System (IPTS) and Metro projects will reduce the number of vehicles-km (emissions) of the system :
Annual Vehicles-km Bogota Scenario 2009
Annual Vehicles-km Bogota 2011 SITP
Annual Vehicles-km Bogota 2018 Metro
1,122,402,441 943,052,325 891,984,810
Source: IADB
Our Projects
New scheme of routes, optimized and organized according to the city’s needs
Operation based on defined zones
Fleet conformed by the adequate typology of vehicles
Fare integration and unique payment system
Entrepreneurial scheme change
Democratization and active participation of owners
Gradual implementation
Upgrading and optimization of actual fleet
Full coverage of the city
Quality of service enhancement
Additional emissions reduction
Integrated Public Transport System (IPTS)
13 operational zones
Metro Project
New scheme of routes, optimized and organized according to the city’s needs
Increase productivity
Travel time reductions
Achieve an efficient distribution of demand vs. high levels of service quality
Long term solution - sustainable in time
Comfort levels improvement
The definition of the first metro line has been consequent with the objective of improving the accessibility of citizens, specially those with low income levels-
FF.CC. Norte
FF.C
C. d
e O
ccid
ente
TTT
Puente Aranda
Los Martires
AntonioNariño
Engativá
Chapinero Santa Fé
La Candelaria
BarriosUnidos
Portal del Tunal
72
NQS
2610ª
BOYACÁ
CALI
Portal de Las Américas
Portal del Sur
Portal del Norte
Portal de la 80
Portal de Suba
Portal de Usme
1st Line
2nd Line
3rd Line
4th Line
TransMilenio Connections
Railway conections
TransMilenio Connections
Railway conections
170
68
cable
Ciudad Bolívar
A
A
127
B
C
C
Expected Metro Network
Metro: An instrument for development
The metro will be part of the Integrated Public Transport System
As a new mode, the metro will strengthen transport multi-modality
The system optimizes land use, considering that it will be in some sections underground
The first line must be conceived as a complement to the transport current solution at the east border of the city
Bogota will consolidate its massive transport offer (Metro & BRT)
Key: accessibility gains to be capitalized in the land market (value capture opportunities)
12
34
56
7 89 10 11
12 13
14
1517
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
16
28
29
0
50.000.000.000
100.000.000.000
150.000.000.000
200.000.000.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Land value increase
Mechanism Advantage DisadvantageExported Credit Agencies (ECA)
Guarantee delivery provider entity
Restriction Amount / Infrastructure
Bonds Nation RiskLocal Money
Restricted amounts / Compete with nation
Development Bank Long term /Favourable Rates
currency risk
Government to government loans
Favorable rates /Cooperation Component
Long process of negotiation
Value Capture-based (development rights)
Up front financing (from the project’s benefits)
Climate Investment Funds
Depends on the project's environmental impact
Non-traditional Credits
Potential Funding Sources for Metro
Environmental Benefits: SITP (IPTS) & Metro projects
SITP
Metro + SITP
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
160000
165000
CO2 Savings per year
CO2 Savings per year
2´102.375 tons of CO2 saved 2011-2024
150.000 (avg.) CO2 tons less per year, additional to 230.000 CO2 tons yearly saved after Trans-Milenio implementation
Fleet Optimization
• According to detailed operational designs for the Integrated Public Transport System of Bogota, including Metro, fleet reductions will be:
It is evident that and adjustment of the transport sector, in terms of reducing oversupply through optimization and rationalization of the transit routes and services, is the most cost-effective solution for abatement of carbon-related emissions
Source: IADB
To implement the IPTS it will be necessary to scrap (chatarrizar) 8,000 buses considering its life cycle has been accomplished (more than 12 years). However, to guarantee service levels it will be necessary to provide the city with 3,200 new buses (Euro III Technology)
Conclusions
We must keep in mind that worldwide, it is estimated that around 75% of the projected increase in oil demand by 2030 will come from the transport sector; therefore all our efforts must be addressed in the same path for tackling this trend of emissions
Bogota is committed to achieve a sustainable transport system and mitigate transport externalities to our environment through the implementation of an Integrated Public Transport Systems (IPTS) – Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Metro systems, and initiatives that incorporate a coordinated urban planning strategy
In addition to contribute to a low-carbon economy, our sustainable transport initiatives will provide significant co-benefits:
• improved air quality• road safety• energy supply security• reduced congestion• A more livable city
The successful implementation of the IPTS in Bogota would have a multiplicative effect in other large and medium-sized cities in Colombia as well as in other emerging countries (the Transmilenio system is being replicated in several mid and low-income cities around the world). It is estimated that a national program over time, with the characteristics and scale of Bogota’s IPTS (assuming full replacement of the bus fleet with low-carbon technologies), could lead to an overall reduction of up to 24% in the carbon footprint of the transport sector. This, if achieved, and in absence of other measures, could result in a reduction of 3% of the national carbon footprint