31
Per-Arne Blomquist Executive Vice President and CFO

Presentation

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Presentation

Per-Arne BlomquistExecutive Vice President and CFO

Page 2: Presentation

2

TeliaSonera AB (A3/A-) - strong business

• Attractive industry with high barriers to entry

• Success based on providing high quality networks and first class services

• Unique position in the Nordic and Baltic region

• Well positioned in high growth emerging markets

Page 3: Presentation

3

Mobility Services - Nordic and Baltic leadership

Subscriptions, September 30, 2008

Lithuania (Omnitel, Ezys)Mobile subscriptions 1,967,000

Finland (Sonera, TeleFinland)Mobile subscriptions 2,631,000

Estonia (EMT, Diil)Mobile subscriptions 778,000

Latvia (LMT, OKarte, Amigo)Mobile subscriptions 1,035,000

# Market position(TeliaSonera estimates)

#1#1

#1#1#1#1

#1#1

#1#1#3#3

#2#2

Start-up

Start-up

Norway (NetCom, Chess)Mobile subscriptions 1,580,000

Spain (Yoigo)Mobile subscriptions 756,000

Sweden (Telia, Halebop)Mobile subscriptions 5,229,000

Denmark (Telia, Call me, dlg)Mobile subscriptions 1,474,000

Page 4: Presentation

4

# = Market position#2#2

Broadband Services - Nordic and Baltic leadership

Norway (NextGenTel)Broadband subscriptions 176,000IPTV subscriptions 10,000

Sweden (Telia)Broadband subscriptions 1,107,000Fixed subscriptions 4,084,000IPTV subscriptions 320,000

Denmark (Telia)Broadband subscriptions 184,000Fixed subscriptions 231,000Cable TV subscriptions 209,000IPTV subscriptions 1,000

Finland (Sonera)Broadband subscriptions 479,000Fixed subscriptions 446,000 Cable TV subscriptions 176,000

Estonia (Elion)Broadband subscriptions 172,000Fixed subscriptions 387,000Cable TV subscriptions 4,000IPTV subscriptions 71,000

Latvia (Lattelecom, ownership 49%)Broadband subscriptions 172,000Fixed subscriptions 602,000

Lithuania (TEO)Broadband subscriptions 287,000Fixed subscriptions 773,000IPTV subscriptions 48,000

# Market position(TeliaSonera estimates)

Subscriptions, September 30, 2008

#2#2#1#1

#1#1#1#1#1#1

Among three major

Among three major

Page 5: Presentation

5

Eurasia - strong growth potential

Subscriptions, September 30, 2008*Subscriptions, August, 2008** Subscriptions, June, 2008

Russia (MegaFon, ownership 43.8%)Mobile subscriptions 41,740,000

Turkey (Turkcell, ownership 37.3%) Mobile subscription** 35,400,000

Ukraine (Life:-), TKC ownership 54.2%)Mobile subscriptions** 10,000,000

#3#3

#3#3

#2#2#2#2

#1#1

#1#1#1#1

#1#1

#1#1#3#3

# Market position(TeliaSonera estimates)

#2#2

#4#4

#3#3

Azerbaijan (Azercell)Mobile subscriptions 3,395,000

Georgia (Geocell) Mobile subscriptions 1,456,000

Kazakhstan (K’cell)Mobile subscriptions 7,018,000

Moldova (Moldcell) Mobile subscriptions 529,000

Tajikistan (Indigo & Somoncom)Mobile subscriptions 954,000

Uzbekistan (UCell)Mobile subscriptions 2,056,000

Nepal (Mero Mobile)Mobile subscriptions* 1,600,000

Cambodia (Star-Cell)Mobile subscriptions* 97,500

Page 6: Presentation

6

Capital structure and dividend policy

• Target a solid investment grade long-term credit rating (A- to BBB+)

• TeliaSonera’s dividend policy is to distribute at least 40% of net income attributable to shareholders of the parent company

• Excess capital shall be returned to shareholders, after the BoD has taken into consideration the company’s cash at hand, cash flow projections and investment plansin a medium term perspective, as well as capital market conditions

Page 7: Presentation

Interim ReportJanuary - September, 2008

Page 8: Presentation

8

Growing sales and strong EBITDA

Q3 2008 in brief

• Net sales SEK 25,817 million (24,798)– In local currencies +3.3%

• EBITDA* SEK 8,949 million (8,714)– EBITDA-margin* 34.7% (35.1)

• EPS SEK 1.06 (1.20)

* Excl. non-recurring items

Page 9: Presentation

9

Efficiency measures

• Improve operational efficiency

• Stable EBITDA margin despite price pressure and changing product mix

• Half way towards personnel reductions of 2,900

• Focus on net savings, per business area and business unit

• Gross savings effect for 2008 above SEK 1.5 billion compared to cost base 2007

Page 10: Presentation

10

Growth opportunities

Create leading market positions by organic growth and acquisitions

• Grow business in fast-growing and profitable markets

– Market size, young and growing population

– Low mobile penetration and high economic growth

– Cultural fit and co-operation with strong local partners

– Management expertise and resources

– Geographical focus east, not west or south

• Controlling interests acquired in two mobile operators in Nepal and Cambodia

• Considering different options for Spain going forward

Page 11: Presentation

11

Growing sales and strong EBITDA

SEK million Q3 2008 Q3 2007 Change %

Net sales 25,817 24,798 4.1

EBITDA* 8,949 8,714 2.7

EBITDA* margin 34.7% 35.1%

Operating income* 8,203 8,354 -1.8

Non-recurring items -299 -114 162.3

Operating income 7,904 8,240 -4.1

Financial items -818 -335 144.2

Net income** 4,772 5,399 -11.6

EPS, SEK 1.06 1.20 -11.6

CAPEX 3,567 3,339 6.8

CAPEX-to-sales 13.8% 13.5%

Free Cash Flow 2,829 5,078 -44.3

* Excluding non-recurring items** Attributable to shareholders of the parent company

Page 12: Presentation

12

Growing sales and strong EBITDA

SEK millionJan-Sep

2008Jan-Sep

2007 Change %

Net sales 75,489 71,423 5.7

EBITDA* 24,682 23,813 3.6

EBITDA* margin 32.7% 33.3%

Operating income* 22,363 21,120 5.9

Non-recurring items -1,071 -1,023 -4.7

Operating income 21,292 20,097 5.9

Financial items -1,462 -615 137.7

Net income** 13,367 13,207 1.2

EPS, SEK 2.98 2.94 1.2

CAPEX 11,272 8,994 25.3

CAPEX-to-sales 14.9% 12.6%

Free Cash Flow 6,410 11,165 -42.6

* Excluding non-recurring items** Attributable to shareholders of the parent company

Page 13: Presentation

13

Net sales trend

25.8

25.3

24.4

24.924.8

23.9

22.7

100.4

94.6

91.8

99.4

98.0

96.3

93.0

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

SE

K b

illi

on

Net sales Rolling 4 quarters

Page 14: Presentation

14

EBITDA trend (excl. non-recurring items)

8.9

7.97.7

7.2

8.7

7.57.6

31.6

32.0

31.9

31.7

31.0

31.2

31.6

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

SE

K b

illi

on

EBITDA Rolling 4 quarters

Page 15: Presentation

15

Statement of cash flows Q3 2008

SEK million Jul - Sep 2008 Jul - Sep 2007

EBITDA excluding non-recurring items 8,949 8,714

Dividends received from associated companies - 1,547

Interest paid (net) -542 -409

Income taxes paid -1,010 -925

Payment of restructuring provisions -61 -11

Difference between paid/recorded pensions 103 -174

Changes in working capital and other items, net

-1,029 -349

Cash flow from operating activities 6,410 8,393

Cash CAPEX -3,581 -3,315

Free cash flow 2,829 5,078

Cash flow from other investing activities -436 -879

Cash flow before financing activities 2,393 4,199

Cash flow from financing activities -148 -3,683

Change in cash & cash equivalents 2,245 516

Page 16: Presentation

16

Key financials – Balance sheets Sep 30, 2008

SEK millionSep 30,

2008Dec 31,

2007

A S S E T S

Goodwill and other intangible assets 90,236 83,909

Property, plant and equipment 56,574 52,602

Investments in associated and joint ventures, deferred tax assets and other non-current assets 54,849 48,633

Inventories 1,262 1,168

Trade receivables, current tax assets and other receivables 22,319 20,881

Interest-bearing receivables 1,603 1,701

Cash and cash equivalents

Non-current assets held-for-sale

8,799

5

7,802

6

T O T A L 235,647 216,702

SEK millionSep 30,

2008Dec 31,

2007

E Q U I T Y & L I A B I L I T I E S

Shareholders’ equity 115,336 117,274

Minority interest 8,800 9,783

Deferred tax liability, other long-term provisions 24,163 16,748

Other long-term liabilities 2,312 2,366

Long-term borrowings 49,683 41,030

Short-term borrowings 8,710 2,549

Trade payables, current tax liabilities, short-term provisions and other current liabilities 26,643 26,952

T O T A L 235,647 216,702

Condensed consolidated balance sheets

Page 17: Presentation

17

Outlook for 2008 unchanged

Net sales

EBITDA-margin

• Expected to show stable growth in the financial year 2008 compared to the previous year

– Jan-Sep 2008 +5.7% and in local currencies +5.2%

• TeliaSonera’s ambition for 2008 is to maintain the EBITDA-margin level of 2007, excl. non-recurring items, despite continued aggressive investments in future growth and in the quality of our networks and services

– Jan-Sep 2008 32.7%

• Is estimated to be somewhat higher than in 2007, excluding the positive one-off items of approx. SEK 2.0 billion in 2007 and potential positive one-off items in 2008

– Jan-Sep 2008 net income* approx. +3.7%

• Will be driven by continued investments in broadband and mobile capacity and is expected to be around SEK 15 billion in 2008

– Jan-Sep 2008 approx. SEK 11.3 billion

Net incomeNet income

CAPEX

*Attributable to shareholders of the parent company

Page 18: Presentation

18

Strong business amid global financial turmoil

• TeliaSonera has a strong balance sheet

• Attractive and relatively non-cyclical industry with high barriers to entry

• Regulatory intervention, intense competition and customer migration remain primary challenges

• Unique position in the Nordic and Baltic region

• Well positioned in high-growth emerging markets

• Success based on providing high quality networks and first class services

One of the best rated Telecom Operators in Europe

Page 19: Presentation

Krister KylåsTreasurer

Page 20: Presentation

20

Credit statistics – TeliaSonera GroupTeliaSonera Estimates

(A) TeliaSonera estimates per Q3-2008 (rolling 12-months for EBITDA & Cash-Flow numbers)1) Cash and cash equivalents excl. blocked funds (1.2) and excl. available unutilized committed revolving credit facilities (13.1) 2) Net debt + pensions (4.9) + non-standard adj. etc. (4) + operating lease adj. (13.4) (Moody’s approach)

3) Cash flow before change in working cap (24.9) + operating lease adj. (1.8 ) - aligned & unusual FFO (0.9) - ordinary dividend payment (common & minority) (9.5) (Moody’s approach)

4) Net debt + adj. incl. pensions & credit guarantees (6.9) + operating lease adj. (7) (S&P’s approach) 5) EBITDA, excl. non-recurring, adj. for operating lease effect etc. (+0.4) (S&P’s approach)

SEK billion Q3 2008 (A) 2007

Gross Debt 58.4 43.6

Cash & Liquidity 1) 7.6 6.7

Net Debt 50.8 36.9

Moody’s

Adjusted Net Debt 2) 73.1 55.6

Adjusted Retained Cash Flow 3) 16.3 19.1

Adjusted (RCF/Net Debt) 22% 34%

S&P

Adjusted Net Debt 4) 64.7 49.2

Adjusted EBITDA 5) 32.3 31.4

Adjusted (Net Debt/EBITDA) 2X 1.6X

Page 21: Presentation

21

TeliaSonera pension obligations• TeliaSonera uses defined benefit pension plans for most employees

in Sweden, Finland & Norway.

• TeliaSonera uses Government Bond yields when discounting the Swedish pension liabilities, which account for ca 85% of the total pension liabilities.

• TeliaSonera pension funds are funding vehicles for those pension obligations, the remainder recorded on the balance sheet, covered via credit guarantees

• Rating agencies would typically define our “pension gap” to be approx. up to SEK 4.9 billion (TeliaSonera est. as of Q3 2008)

SEK billion Q3 2008 est. 2007

Present value of pension obligation 23.2 20.8

Fair value of plan assets 18.1 19.3

Pension obligations less plan assets 5.1 1.5

Booked Pension Liability / Receivable (-) 0.2 0.2

”Pension gap” 4.9 1.3

Page 22: Presentation

22

TeliaSonera pension obligations (cont’d) Main reasons for the increase in the estimated “pension gap” by some SEK 3.6 billion (est. Q3 2008 vs. YE 2007)

• Decrease of discount rate for pension obligations – Pension liabilities increased by SEK 2.4 billion

• Negative overall returns on assets (total approx. SEK 1.2 billion)– Other assets (36%) return approx. -21% (shares, hedge funds and other (private equity & real estate))– Fixed income (64%) return approx. +2.5%

• Based on estimated impact as of Q3-2008 the expected increase in pension costs (P/L) in 2009 would amount to some SEK 250-300 million, mainly consisting of amortization of actuarial losses etc.(outside the IAS-corridor)

TeliaSonera Group assumptions regarding pensions

Q3 2008 est.

YE 2007

Discount rate 3.9% 4.6%

Expected return on Plan Assets (Net) 5.1% 5.1%

Expected salary increase 3.2% 3.2%

Page 23: Presentation

23

TeliaSonera pension obligations (cont’d)

TeliaSonera Group pension related risks• Reduction of the discount rate for pension obligations by 100 bps from a

level of 3.9%, would imply an increase in TeliaSonera Group pension liabilities, all else equal, by some SEK 3.6 billion

• The expected impact on fixed income Plan Assets, for the same change in overall interest rates, would imply an increase in value, all else equal, by some SEK 1 billion

– “Net impact” thus SEK 2.6 billion (other Plan Assets assumed yielding a zero return)

• “Exogenous risks” include e.g. change in Life Expectancy

Page 24: Presentation

24

TeliaSonera AB credit ratings (A3/A-)

• January 8, 2003, lowered long-term debt rating to A2

• Nov 1, 2006, outlook changed to Negative

• Oct 30, 2007, lowered long- and short-term debt rating to A3 and P-2 respectively

• Outlook: Stable

• February 5, 2003, lowered long-term debt rating to A

• October 28, 2005, lowered long-term debt rating to A- and short-term debt rating to A-2

• September 29, 2008, debt ratings confirmed

• Outlook: Stable

Moody’s (A3/P-2) Standard & Poor’s (A-/A-2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q1/02 Q4/02 Q1/03 Q4/03 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4-07 Q3-08

AAAA-A+AA-

TeliaSonera AB long-term ratings migration history 2002-to-today

One of the best rated Telecom Operators in Europe

Page 25: Presentation

25

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Debt maturity schedule (excl. lease and pension liabilities)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09

Debt Maturing next 12 months (SEK million)

Debt Portfolio Maturity Schedule (SEK billion), Oct 2008 & onwards

TeliaSonera AB

TeliaSonera Finland Oyj (formerly Sonera Corporation)

September 30, 2008

Page 26: Presentation

26

Liquidity position, TeliaSonera Group

Cash and cash equivalents, less blocked funds approx. SEK 7.6 billion*

* On October 1, 2008, payment of approx. SEK 3.3 billion for the acquisitions in Nepal & Cambodia

September 30, 2008

Committed bank lines Maturity Size Amount undrawn

Bilateral credit facility Sep 2010 SEK 2 billion SEK 2 billion

Syndicated revolving credit facility Dec 2011 EUR 1 billion EUR 1 billion

Bilateral credit facility Apr 2013 SEK 1.4 billion SEK 1.4 billion

Page 27: Presentation

27

TeliaSonera’s funding strategy

• Liquidity position, as of September 30, 2008– Cash and cash equivalents, less blocked funds approx. SEK 7.6 billion

– Available unutilized amount of committed bank credit lines approx. SEK 13.1 billion

• Primary means of external borrowing – EMTN (€7 billion) 1)

– Swedish FTN (SEK 12 billion) 2)

– ECP (€1 billion) 3)

• TeliaSonera’s intention is to continue to refinance the outstanding Sonera (“TSF”) debt as well as any new financing required

1) Approx. €4.9 billion utilized of the EMTN2) Approx. SEK 4.8 billion utilized of the FTN (in the form of CP’s)3) ECP programme presently unutilized

Page 28: Presentation

28

TeliaSonera’s funding strategy (cont’d)

• Base-case implies a focus on EMTN financing in the coming 12-15 months, primarily in the form of smaller sized EMTN-PP’s

• Public Eurobond is an alternative, subject to market conditions.

• Some continued utilisation of our CP programmes is likely for interim funding

• SEK & EUR are the preferred currencies

• Other currencies utilised for flexibility reasons, when deemed attractive

• Expected total (EMTN) funding in 2009– Approx. EUR 750 million (equivalent)

Page 29: Presentation

29

Strong business amid global financial turmoil

• TeliaSonera has a strong balance sheet

• Attractive and relatively non-cyclical industry with high barriers to entry

• Regulatory intervention, intense competition and customer migration remain primary challenges

• Unique position in the Nordic and Baltic region

• Well positioned in high-growth emerging markets

• Success based on providing high quality networks and first class services

One of the best rated Telecom Operators in Europe

Page 30: Presentation

30

Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature,

forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual

results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors,

many of which are outside the control of TeliaSonera.

Forward-looking statements

Page 31: Presentation