Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016

February 2016

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

Gonzalo Valverde – Director Operations Sales

Argentina, Uruguay & Paraguay

2 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

Global Mobile Speed

Data

Global Forecast

Data

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

VNI Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020


Overview


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

2015 2020

4.8 Billion

5.5 Billion

More Mobile Users

More Mobile Connections

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Video

7.9 Billion

11.6 Billion

2.0 Mbps 6.5 Mbps

55% of Traffic

75% of Traffic

Mobile Momentum Metrics


By 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of

367 exabytes per year, up from 44 exabytes in 2015

(8-fold growth).

367X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000

81 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)

7 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8-Fold from 2015─2020

Exabytes per Month

53% CAGR 2015–2020


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

21.7 EB

3.7 EB

14.9 EB 9.9 EB

6.2 EB

30.6 EB


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (71%) from 2015–2020 APAC will Generate 45% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC)

Exabytes per Month 11%

45%

9%

14% 7%

14%



31% 39%

46% 46% 46% 47%

56% 56% 56% 56% 57% 57% 58% 59%

64% 67% 68%

79% 81%

86% 89%

111% 129%

Sweden Korea Spain

Canada Australia

Japan France Russia

Germany US

Italy UK

Mexico South Africa

Brazil New Zealand

Chile Argentina

Poland Saudi Arabia

India China

Indonesia

Cisco VNI Mobile Year in Review—

2015 Strong Growth

Worldwide


Drivers


Global Mobile Users From 65% (4.8B) in 2015 to 70% (5.5B) of Global Population by 2020 Global Mobile Users Growing 2X Faster than Global Population

North America 2015: 302 Million 2020: 322 Million

CAGR 1.3%

Latin America 2015: 477 Million 2020: 577 Million

CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe 2015: 368 Million 2020: 378 Million

CAGR 0.5%

Middle East & Africa 2015: 709 Million 2020: 879 Million

CAGR 4.4%

Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 352 Million 2020: 360 Million

CAGR 0.5%

Asia Pacific 2015: 2,597 Million 2020: 3008 Million

CAGR 3.0%



Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.9 Billion in 2015 to 11.6 Billion by 2020 at 8% CAGR

North America 2015: 486 Million

2020: 1,036 Million CAGR 16.4%

Latin America 2015: 770 Million

2020: 1,018 Million CAGR 5.7%

Western Europe 2015: 627 Million

2020: 1,129 Million CAGR 12.5%

Middle East & Africa 2015: 1,295 Million 2020: 1,845 Million

CAGR 7.3%

Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 642 Million 2020: 910 Million

CAGR 7.2%

Asia Pacific 2015: 4,031 Million 2020: 5,707 Million

CAGR 7.2%



Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will More Than Triple from 2.0 Mbps (2015) to 6.5 Mbps (2020)

North America

2.6-fold Growth 5.9 to 15.3 Mbps

Latin America


Western Europe


Middle East & Africa


Central & Eastern Europe


Asia Pacific




Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2020, Video Will Drive 75% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2015

North America

77% of traffic by 2020 49% CAGR

Latin America


Western Europe






Asia Pacific




Ten-Year Mobile VNI Retrospective View


Mobile Data Traffic, 2000–2015

Trends Menu

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

“Call Me” User Growth Era

“There’s an app for that” Smartphone Era

“Watch this” Mobile Video Era

“Where’s Wi-Fi?” Data Cap Era

2G 3G 4G


Historical View of Mobile Users

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mobile Users

in Billions

2000 Mobile Users: 0.6 B % of WW Population: 9%

2003 Mobile Users: >1 B % of WW Population: 17%

2005 Mobile Users: 1.7 B % of WW Population: 25%

2003 Mobile Users: 3.5 B % of WW Population: >50%

2015 Mobile Users:

4.8 B % of WW

Population: 65%


-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historical View of Devices

Mobile Devices and Connections

in Billions

Primarily

2000

Introduced

2003

>

2004 2007 2008

•  One device/ capita

•  1.5 devices/ mobile user

2010 2013 2015


Historical View of Mobile Speeds

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Average Mobile Speed (Kbps)

Mobility for the Masses GSM, GPRS, CDMAOne

Basic Mobile Broadband EV-DO, CDMA,

HSPA

Faster Mobile Broadband

LTE, LTE Advanced

First Commercial 3G Network

LTE First Public Release


Historical View of Video

2G 3G 4G

Introduction of 3G enabling video

YouTube introduced for mobile

devices

iTunes launches

video content

Netflix transforms

video model

360 Video offers new experience

Live video streams deliver current

events


Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2015–2020 Top Mobile Networking Trends

1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

2 Defining Cell Network Advances ─ 2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives)

3 Measuring Mobile IoT Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables

4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth

5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns

6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements

7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data and Shared Plans

8 Mobile Milestones and Innovations Through The Years



Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

•  Total devices and connections growth

•  Traffic by device category •  Smarter devices growth •  Smart devices traffic •  IPv6 Analysis


Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2020, Smartphones / Phablets Attain Largest Share Reaching Nearly 50%

8% CAGR 2015–2020


Billions of Devices

Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 device share

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Smartphones (32%,40%) Phablets (6%,8%) M2M (8%,26%) Nonsmartphones (50%,21%) Tablets (2%,3%) PCs (2%,2%) Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.1%)


Global Mobile Traffic Growth by Device Type Globally, Smartphones / Phablets Will Continue to Dominate Mobile Traffic, but M2M Will Gain Share by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 traffic share

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Smartphones (inc. Phablets) (76%,81%) M2M (3%,7%) Nonsmartphones (2%,1%) Tablets (9%,8%) PCs (9%,3%) Other Portable Devices (0.03%,0.00%) Exabytes

per Month


Smart Devices and Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections

2015 2020 Global

BY REGION North America Western Europe

Asia-Pacific Central & Eastern Europe


36%

74% 59%

35% 34%

43%

12%

72%

95% 86%

72% 70%

84%

52% Latin America


Back to Trends Menu *Excludes LPWA

Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

•  Total devices and connections growth

•  Traffic by device category •  Smarter devices growth •  Smart devices traffic •  Ipv6 analysis

Globally, in 2015, a smart device generated 14 times more traffic

than a nonsmart device.


* Smart devices are those having advanced multimedia/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity


Global Impact of Smart Devices and Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2020, Smart Devices Will Have 98% Share of Traffic

Exabytes per Month

53% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Nonsmart Traffic Smart Traffic

98%

97% 95%

93% 91% 89%

11% 9%

7%

5%

3%

2%


Smart Devices and Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections Traffic

2015 2020 Global


Asia-Pacific



89%

99% 95%

90% 87%

90%

64%

98%

100% 99%

99% 98%

100%

95%

Latin America


Back to Trends Menu


Trend 2 Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives) •  Total Connections by

Network Type •  Network Connectivity for M2M •  Traffic by Network

Connectivity •  5G Perspectives


Global Connections by Network Type By 2017, 3G Surpasses 2G Connections By 2020, 4G Connectivity Surpasses All Other Connection Types


Back to Trends Menu

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G LPWA

Billions of Devices or

Connections

40.5% 38.7%

13.5% 7.4%

52%

34%

14%

0.3%

*Includes M2M


Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2020

Global


Asia-Pacific



2G 13%

3%

9%

15%

14%

8%

22%

Latin America


Back to Trends Menu

3G 39%

14%

21%

52%

37%

42%

60%

4G 40%

59%

53%

32%

43%

42%

17%

LPWA 7%

24%

16%

1%

6%

8%

1%

Includes M2M


Global M2M Connections by Network Type By 2020, 4G and LPWA Lead M2M Connections

Back to Trends Menu

Billions of Devices or

Connections

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G LPWA 32%

12%

28% 26%

42% 40% 10% 4%



Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Already Carries Largest Share of Traffic – 47% By 2020, 4G Will Support 72% of Mobile Traffic

Back to Trends Menu


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G

72%

27% <1%

Exabytes per Month

47% 10%

43%

Globally, in 2015, a 4G connection generated 1.6 GB/mo, nearly 6X higher than the 288 MB/mo for non-4G connections.


Back to Trends Menu


5G Perspectives The Perspectives and The Path to Deployment


Barriers Benefits

•  Super-efficient, cost optimized •  Dynamic resource allocation •  High bandwidth and ultra-low

latency •  IoT Capable •  Power efficient

•  Monetization potential Recouping 4G investments

•  Device availability •  Regulatory issues

Spectrum allocation •  Use case / test data

development

Back to Trends Menu


Generations of Mobile Technology— A Snapshot


Back to Trends Menu

2G

1980–99

14–64 Kbps

Digital voice, SMS, MMS

1G

1970–84

2 Kbps

Analog voice

Generation

Deployment

Bandwidth

Service

3G

1990–2002

2 Mbps

Integrated high quality audio, video

and data

4G

2000–10

200 Mbps

Dynamic information

access, variable devices

5G

2020+

1 Gbps+

Dynamic information

access with AI capabilities–IoT,

Wearable devices


Trend 3 Measuring Mobile IoT Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables •  M2M Connections growth •  M2M by vertical •  M2M Device usage—

traffic examples •  Wearables analysis


Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 5-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 4G Will Have the Largest Global M2M Connections Share

38% CAGR 2015–2020


Billions of M2M

Connections

Back to Trends Menu

* In 2015, 4G accounts for 10% and LPWA accounts for 4% of global mobile M2M connections.

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G LPWA

40%

10%

3.1 B

2.4 B

1.8 B

1.3 B 0.9 B

0.6 B 46%

26%

28%

12%

34%

By 2020, M2M modules will be 26% of total global mobile devices and connections and will account for 7% (2.1 EBs/month) of mobile data traffic.


Back to Trends Menu


Global Mobile M2M Connections By Vertical By 2020, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth

38% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of M2M

Connections

Back to Trends Menu

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Other* (58.1% CAGR) Energy (44.1% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (43.2% CAGR) Retail (15.4% CAGR) Connected Cities (42.3% CAGR) Connected Health (52% CAGR) Connected Car (32% CAGR) Utilities (33.8% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (46.6% CAGR) Connected Home (41% CAGR)

*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services


Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 6-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity

44% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of Connected Wearables

Back to Trends Menu

0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% 7,0% 8,0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

97 M

489 M 3.3%

601 M

6.9%

% with Embedded

Cellular Connectivity

261 M

167 M

373 M


Regional Connected Wearable Devices Asia Pacific Will Have the Largest Share by 2020

44% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of M2M

Connections

Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices share

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Western Europe (17%,21%) North America (40%,30%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (2%,4%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,8%) Asia Pacific (31%,32%)

489 M

97 M

601 M

167 M

261 M

373 M


Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 23-Fold from 2015-2020

87% CAGR 2015–2020


Monthly Traffic (PB)

Back to Trends Menu

% Embedded

Cellular Traffic

15 34 68

125

209

335

2,3%

6,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Asia Pacific will Maintain the Largest Share, Followed by North America

87% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices traffic share

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Western Europe (12%,19%) North America (38%,30%) Middle East & Africa (2%,3%) Latin America (1%,3%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,11%) Asia Pacific (42%,34%)

Monthly Traffic (PB)


Trend 4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth •  Total mobile vs. Wi-Fi vs.

fixed traffic growth •  Mobile offload •  Growth of Wi-Fi hotspots •  Day in connected life/

day-parting •  VoWiFi vs. other types of

mobile voice


Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

23% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile Data (59% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (22% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)

55%

38% 3%

4% 37%

34%

13% 16%

53% is Wi-Fi

29% from Mobile Devices

Exabytes per Month


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 55% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2020 51% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2015


Back to Trends Menu

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

Exabytes per Month

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

45%

55%


Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific leads with 164 Million (37%) hotspots by 2020

Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

Back to Trends Menu

Millions of Hotspots

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Middle East and Africa * Central and Eastern Europe Latin America North America Western Europe Asia Pacific

37%

27%

21%

9%

64M

5%

109M

191M

278M

355M

433M

* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2020


Day in a Connected Life Data Consumption by Location


Back to Trends Menu

* Reflects mature mobile markets and working adults usage

Home 52% Work 33% Hotspot 10% On the Go 5%


Global VoWiFi Deployments/Availability North America West Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa

Back to Trends Menu


VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2016 VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2020 VoWiFI MoU Exceed VoIP by 2018

Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

Minutes of Use (Billions)

0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000

10.000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VoWiFi (15.7% , 52.9%) VoLTE (18.0% , 26.3%) VoIP (66.3% , 20.8%)

66%

53%

26% 21%

18% 16%

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 share of minutes of use


VoWiFi Voice Traffic Exceeds VoIP by 2017 VoWiFi Is More Widely Available than VoLTE

Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

Petabytes per Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VoWiFi Traffic VoLTE Traffic VoIP


Trend 5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns •  Mobile traffic by applications •  Average vs. busy hour •  Average per mobile user •  Average per connection •  Average for different device


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video Three-fourths of Mobile Data Traffic by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015 and 2020 mobile data traffic shares

Exabytes per Month

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)

Mobile Audio (8%,6%)

Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,17%)

Mobile Video (55%,75%)


Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher than Average Hour in 2015, 88% in 2020


Back to Trends Menu

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average-Hour Traffic Busy-Hour Traffic

Tbps


Time Spent Per Device Type, 2015 Time on Smartphones Exceeds Time on PCs for all Regions Except NA


Billions of Hours per

Day

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

APAC CEE LATAM MEA NA WE

PC Smartphone Tablet

Back to Trends Menu


Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)

2015 2020 GLOBAL Global MB per Month


Latin America



746

1,792 1,134

588 568

1,529

409

5,216

8,887 6,528

4,237 3,785

11,835

4,790

Asia-Pacific


Back to Trends Menu


Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month

2015 2020 Global MB per Month


Asia-Pacific



469

1,147 690

568 392

849

227

2,625

3,097 2,476

3,785 2,403

4,879

2,338

Latin America

GLOBAL


Back to Trends Menu


Mobile Device Data Traffic 2015 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons

M2M Module

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

PC 118 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =

113 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) =





Back to Trends Menu


Average Cellular Traffic Per Mobile Device Type


Back to Trends Menu

Note: In 2015, 4G smartphones generated 14GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3.2GBs/month

2015 2020 MBs per Month MBs per Month

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

164 670

153 558

929 4,406

2,576 7,079

2,679 5,232

M2M Module

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

PC

Nonsmartphone 23 116


Trend 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements •  Mobile speeds •  Wi-Fi Speeds •  Mobile speed

by device •  Mobile speed

by network


Mobile Network Speeds Increase 3.2X by 2020 Average Cell Connection Speed (2.0 Mbps in 2015) Will Grow at a 26% CAGR—Reaching 6.5 Mbps by 2020

2015 2020 Global Mbps


Asia Pacific



2.0

5.9 4.0

1.5 2.4

2.3

0.8

6.5

15.3 14.1

4.9 8.6

10.6

4.8

Latin America

GLOBAL


Back to Trends Menu


Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2015-2020

2015 2020 Global Mbps


Asia Pacific



12.5

17.4 13.9

5.9 11.4

13.4

4.4

19.9

31.9 22.4

9.1 18.3

24.0

6.8

Latin America

GLOBAL


Back to Trends Menu


Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 2.5x Higher than Average by 2020 Smartphone Speeds are 1.9x Higher than Average by 2020


Mbps

Back to Trends Menu

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tablets Smartphones

11.6 Mbps

7.5 Mbps

2.0 Mbps

16.2 Mbps

12.5 Mbps

6.5 Mbps


0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4G 3G All Network Types 2G

Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 3.3X Higher than Average by 2020 Average Speeds will Surpass 3-3.5G Speeds by 2020


Mbps

Back to Trends Menu

15.3 Mbps

2.6 Mbps 2.0 Mbps

21.5 Mbps

116 Kbps

6.5 Mbps

85 Kbps 4.8 Mbps


Trend 7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data & Shared Plans •  Top mobile user profile •  IOS vs. Android •  Tiered vs. unlimited plans •  Shared vs. regular plans


Top 20% Users Consume 59% of Monthly Traffic


Back to Trends Menu

* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators

7% 28% 42%

59%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%

Top-Tier Percentage

Usage (Nov 2015)


Top 20% Users Consume Nearly 11 Gigabytes per Month *


Back to Trends Menu


27,9 21,4

15,7 11,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%

Top-Tier Percentage Usage GB/

month (Nov 2015)


7 Percent of Users Consume 10 GB per Month 51 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month *


Back to Trends Menu


Percentage of Users

(Nov 2015)

7% 21%

51%

94%

99%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

Greater than 10 GB

Greater than 5 GB

Greater than 2 GB

Greater than 200 MB

Greater than 20 MB


iOS Usage Surpasses Android


Back to Trends Menu


Average GB/month

(Nov 2015) 3,1

3,8

0

1

2

3

4

5

Android iOS


“Sponsored” Data Examples

Back to Trends Menu

•  Three free hours of internet per day on the Opera Mini Browser

•  Unlimited mobile calls with higher tier fixed line subscription

•  2GB Free data for XL and above plans

•  Testing “toll free”

•  Stream HBO, Netflix and ESPN

•  Free Hulu to switch from Verizon

•  Paid data carry forward service

•  Cut your bill in half to switch from other carriers

•  Unlimited plans for DirecTV and U-verse customers

•  Connected car program

•  Free trial Facebook and YouTube to first time customers


Trend 8 Mobile Milestones and Innovations Through The Years


Then and Now

92%

8%

1 : 1

Average number of contacts: 14

Calling, texting

Back to Trends Menu

2000

1 : Many

Average contacts and connections: 250

2015

10%

90%

Calling, texting, tweeting, posting, watching, gaming, banking, navigating, shopping, reading


Then and Now

Back to Trends Menu

2000 2015

Storage: 4 MB Speed: 200 Kbps Data consumed in a month: 0.05 MB

Storage: 32 GB Speed: 8 Mbps Data consumed in a month: 1.2 GB

The average smartphone user in 2015 consumes more data in less than a minute than a mobile user in 2000 did in an entire month.


The Pervasiveness of Mobile in 2015 Two out of three people over the age of five have mobile phones

People with mobile phones: 4.5 billion

People with bank accounts: 4.2 billion

People with running water: 3.0 billion

People with landlines: 2.7 billion

People with cars: 2.6 billion

62% of Global Population





Back to Trends Menu

Mobile Perspective: The number of mobile users has quintupled since 2000. In 2015, more people have mobile phones than bank accounts, running water, cars, and landlines.


Mobile Growth Continues Through 2020 By 2020, more people will have mobile phones than electricity at home

People with mobile phones: 5.4 billion

People with electricity: 5.3 billion

People with bank accounts: 4.5 billion

People with running water: 3.5 billion

People with cars: 2.8 billion

Back to Trends Menu

Mobile Perspective: Already in 2015, mobile exceeds the electrical grid in a few regions and countries, including the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Indonesia. In Uganda, 3 million have electricity; 10 million have mobile phones. People with landlines: 2.2 billion








Conclusion


Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020 Key Takeaways / Summary


Back to Trends Menu

GLOBAL MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 5.5 Billion global mobile users, representing 70% of the global population.

GLOBAL MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita globally.

GLOBAL MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase 3.2X (2.0 Mbps to 6.5 Mbps).

GLOBAL MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.

GLOBAL MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 55% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.

GLOBAL MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate 98% of global mobile data traffic.

GLOBAL MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach 30.6 EB /per month (366 EB annually).


Argentina


Argentina 4G Traffic •  4G will account for 61.1% of total mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to

14.4% at the end of 2015. •  4G traffic will grow 29-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate

of 96%. •  4G smartphone traffic will be 54% of total smartphone traffic by 2020,

compared to 10.2% at the end of 2015. •  The average 4G smartphone will generate 3,224 MB of traffic per month by

2020, compared to 1,685 MB for non-4G smartphones. •  The average 4G smartphone generated 1,456 MB of traffic per month in 2015,

compared to 577 MB for non-4G smartphones. •  4G tablet traffic will be 93% of total tablet traffic by 2020, compared to 43.5% at

the end of 2015.


Argentina 4G Traffic •  The average 4G tablet will generate 6,774 MB of traffic per month by 2020,

compared to 3,805 MB for non-4G tablets. •  4G connections will be 35.6% of total mobile connections by 2020, and 61.1%

of total mobile data traffic. •  The average 4G connection generated 2,024 MB per month in 2015, 6.3X

higher than the average 321 MB per month for the average Non-4G Connection, and 3.0X higher than the average 673 MB per month for the average 3G Connection.


AR Mobile Data Traffic

•  Mobile data traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 47%.

•  Mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020

•  Mobile data traffic will account for 13% of Argentinian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 5% in 2015

•  87% of mobile connections will be 'smart' connections by 2020, up from 42% in 2015


AR Mobile Users

•  There were 35.7 Million (82% of Argentina's population) mobile users in 2015, up 3% from 34.8 Million in 2014

•  There will be 38.3 Million (84% of Argentina's population) mobile users by

2020, up from 35.7 Million in 2015, a CAGR of 1.4%.


Argentina Mobile Data Traffic •  In 2015, Argentina's mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 79%. •  Mobile data traffic grew 3.3 times faster than Argentinian fixed IP traffic in 2015 •  The average mobile-connected end-user device generated 382 megabytes of

mobile data traffic per month in 2015, up 76% from 217 megabytes •  The average smartphone generated 615 megabytes of mobile data traffic per

month in 2015, up from 402 megabytes per month in 2014. •  In 2015, Argentina's consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 80%. •  In 2015, Argentina's business mobile data traffic grew 1.7-fold, or 73%.


Argentina Mobile Applications •  In Argentina, mobile video traffic will grow 9.3-fold from 2015 to 2020, a

compound annual growth rate of 56%. •  Video will be 75% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 55%

at the end of 2015. •  Video reached half of Argentina's mobile data traffic by year-end 2014 or

earlier. •  Streaming Audio will be 6% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,

compared to 8% at the end of 2015. •  Filesharing will be 2% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to

1% at the end of 2015. •  Web and other data will be 17% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,

compared to 36% at the end of 2015.


AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices

•  1.9 Mobile connections per capita for this region/country by 2020, up from 1.5 mobile connections per capita in 2015.

•  2.0 million net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network in 2015.

•  6.7 million smartphones were added to the mobile network in 2015. •  There were 66 million mobile-connected devices in 2015, approximately 1.5

per capita. •  There will be 86 million mobile-connected devices by 2020, approximately 1.9

per capita. •  The number of mobile-connected devices will grow at a compound annual

growth rate of 5% from 2015 to 2020.


AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices •  The number of mobile-connected tablets grew 1.2-fold during 2015, reaching

0.7 million in number. •  The number of mobile-connected tablets will grow 2.2-fold between 2015 and

2020, reaching 1.6 million in number. •  The number of mobile-connected PCs grew % during 2015, to 1 million in

number •  The number of mobile-connected PCs will grow 1.2-fold between 2015 and

2020, to 1 million in number •  The number of smartphones grew 30% during 2015, reaching 29 million in

number. •  The number of smartphones will grow 2.0-fold between 2015 and 2020,

reaching 58 million in number.


Mobile Connection Speeds •  Average mobile connection speed was 619 kbps in 2015. •  Average mobile connection speed will grow 4.1-fold (32% CAGR) from 2015 to

2020, reaching 2,515 kbps by 2020

By Device •  Average smartphone connection speed was 4,580 kbps in 2015 •  Average smartphone connection speed will grow 1.7-fold from 2015 to 2020,

reaching 7,766 kbps by 2020 •  Average tablet connection speed was 6,418 kbps in 2015 •  Average tablet connection speed will grow 1.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, reaching

11,752 kbps by 2020.


By Network Connection Type •  In 2015 the average 4G speed was 10,730 kbps, the average 3G speed was

1,801 kbps, and the average 2G speed was 65 kbps. •  By 2020 the average 4G speed will be 17,921 kbps, the average 3G speed will

be 3,785 kbps, and the average 2G speed will be 79 kbps •  In 2015 the average Wi-Fi connection speed was 4,358 kbps, up 19% from

3,677 kbps in 2014 •  In 2020 the average Wi-Fi connection speed will be 7,603 kbps, up 1.7-fold

(12% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020. •  The average 3G speed will grow 2.1-fold (16% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,

reaching 3,785 kbps by 2020. •  The average 2G speed will grow 1.2-fold (4% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,

reaching 79 kbps by 2020.


Conclusion


Cisco VNI Argentina Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020 Key Takeaways / Summary


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AR MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 38.3 Million mobile users, representing 84% of the AR population.

AR MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.9 mobile connections per capita.

AR MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase 4.1X (619 Kbps to 2.515 Mbps).

AR MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the AR’s mobile data traffic will be video.

AR MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 47% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.

AR MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate 98% of mobile data traffic.

AR MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach 165.2 PB /per month.


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2015–2020 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

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www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]