VNI, Informacion America Latina, Junio 11, 2014

Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption

Lucas Olocco

June 11, 2014

Global and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico) Forecast Update 2013–2018

Cisco Confidential 2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI

Service Adoption Forecast

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS


More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic

Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6-Fold Speed Increase

More Devices 21 Billion Connections

More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users

Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018

Growth Catalysts


Establishing the Zettabyte Era

1.6 zettabytes is equal to:

•  13X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes)

•  1day / 24 hours of ultra-HD video per person of the world population

By 2018, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes per year

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

•  One trillion gigabytes

•  Approximately 1021 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

What is a zettabyte?


VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth


Exabytes per Month

50

39

51

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

IP Traffic in 2013 Internet Traffic in 2013

Projected in 2010 Actual


51 62 76 91 110

132

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to 2018


21% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


3.5 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.6

8.9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018


21% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.67 0.78

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Argentina IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Argentina IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.4X from 2013 to 2018


19% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.9

0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Brazil IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Brazil IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018


20% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0.21 0.26 0.32 0.38 0.45

0.52

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Chile IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Chile IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018


20% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5

1.8

0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mexico IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Mexico IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.8X from 2013 to 2018


23% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6

1.9

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rest of Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Rest of LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.6X from 2013 to 2018


21% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (23% CAGR) Middle East and Africa (MEA) (38% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (18% CAGR) North America (NA) (20% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate at 38% CAGR 2013–2018 APAC will Generate 35% of all IP Traffic by 2018

30.8%

35.9%

14.6%

7.8% 6.8%

4.1%


21% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rest of LATAM (21% CAGR) Chile (20% CAGR) Argentina (19% CAGR) Mexico (23% CAGR) Brazil (20% CAGR)

LATAM IP Traffic Growth / Countries Mexico has the Highest Growth Rate at 23% CAGR 2013–2018 Brazil will Generate 44% of all IP Traffic by 2018

20.4%

43.7%

8.8%

21.2%

5.9%


21% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


Global Internet Users Growth By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users


North America

317 Million by 2018 CAGR 2%

Latin America

371 Million by 2018 CAGR 9.6%

Western Europe


Middle East & Africa


Central/Eastern Europe


Asia Pacific

2.1 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11.2%



Global Device Growth By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections

North America

3.4 Billion by 2018 CAGR 13%

Latin America


Western Europe



2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9%



Asia Pacific


Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 16 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.


By 2018, over half of the world’s population (52%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 50% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.



By 2018, over two-third of the population (67%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 3.4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 55% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.


Argentina




Brazil


By 2018, over two-third of the population (68%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 48% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.


Chile




Mexico


North America

2.5-fold Growth 18–43 Mbps

Latin America


Western Europe






Asia Pacific



Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)


In Argentina, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.6-fold reaching 11 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.1 Mbps in 2013.

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018


In Brazil, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.5-fold reaching 17 Mbps by 2018, up from 6.8 Mbps in 2013.



In Chile, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.5-fold reaching 28 Mbps by 2018, up from 11 Mbps in 2013.



In Mexico, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.7-fold reaching 19 Mbps by 2018, up from 7 Mbps in 2013.



North America

40.5 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 84%

Latin America


Western Europe






Asia Pacific



Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic


In Argentina, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 595 PB by 2018, up from 168 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 76% of all IP traffic in Argentina.



In Brazil, monthly IP video traffic will grow 3-fold reaching 3.2 EB by 2018, up from 1.0 EB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 82% of all IP traffic in Brazil.



In Chile, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 393 PB by 2018, up from 111 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 75% of all IP traffic in Chile.



In Mexico, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 1.6 EB by 2018, up from 428 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 85% of all IP traffic in Mexico.



Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

30 GB per month

In 2013

15 GB per month 75 GB per month

Future

By 2018

73 GB per month

In 2013


Future Average Traffic per Household

Average Traffic per User



Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

25 GB per month

In 2013


Future

By 2018

72 GB per month

In 2013






Average Argentina Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

27 GB per month

In 2013


Future

By 2018

72 GB per month

In 2013






Average Brazil Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

30 GB per month

In 2013


Future

By 2018

78 GB per month

In 2013






Average Chile Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

48 GB per month

In 2013


Future

By 2018

119 GB per month

In 2013






Average Mexico Internet Bandwidth Usage

By 2018

22 GB per month

In 2013


Future

By 2018

71 GB per month

In 2013






VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends

1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use

2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE

3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi

4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology

5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology

6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)

7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption

8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth

9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption

10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps


Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

11% CAGR

Billions of Devices

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

M2M (18.6%,35.2%)

Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)

Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)

TV (10.0%,12.8%)

PCs (12.2%,7.0%)

Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)

Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)


Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Global Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K

1 8 28

63

119

202

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

Connected 4K TV Sets (M)



Latin America Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections


9% CAGR

Billions of Devices

0

1

2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

M2M (14.7%,26.7%)



TV (4.4%,13.3%)

PCs (14.9%,9.1%)

Tablets (1.4%,4.8%)



Brazil Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections


9% CAGR

Billions of Devices

0.0

0.5

1.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

M2M (15.6%,29.1%)



TV (4.3%,13.1%)

PCs (15.7%,10.3%)

Tablets (1.2%,4.7%)



Average Global Traffic per Device (2013)

= Tablet

Ultra High Definition TV

Laptop/PC

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

4.0 GB

= 22.9 GB*

22.7 GB

= 8.0 GB

* Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

=

= Smartphone 1.0 GB

= M2M Module 78 MB


Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic

Exabytes per Month

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.4%,2.8%)

Tablets (2.2%,14.0%)


TV (26.5%,23.6%)

PCs (67.2%,42.8%)

21% CAGR

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


Latin America IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly 40% of LATAM IP Traffic

Exabytes per Month

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.2%,2.0%)

Tablets (1.0%,9.4%)


TV (5.3%,12.7%)

PCs (91.1%,61.4%)

21% CAGR



Brazil IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 32% of Brazil IP Traffic

Exabytes per Month

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.2%,1.7%)

Tablets (0.6%,6.4%)


TV (4.8%,11.5%)

PCs (92.0%,67.8%)

20% CAGR



Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic

Exabytes per Month

23% CAGR


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.5%,3.7%)

TV (4.7%,6.2%)

Tablets (3.1%,18.0%)


PCs (86.4%,50.5%)


Latin America Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive a Third of LATAM Internet Traffic

Exabytes per Month

20% CAGR


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.2%,2.2%)

TV (0.9%,3.6%)

Tablets (1.1%,10.7%)


PCs (95.1%,66.8%)


Brazil Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 27% of Brazil Internet Traffic

Exabytes per Month

19% CAGR


0

1

2

3

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (0.2%,1.9%)

TV (0.9%,3.7%)

Tablets (0.7%,7.2%)


PCs (95.7%,73.1%)














Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita

M2M Connections

(M)

26% CAGR

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR) Latin America (23% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR) North America (27% CAGR) Western Europe (24.6% CAGR)

Source: Machina Researc, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

2.3 B 2.9 B

3.7 B

4.7 B

5.9 B

7.3 B


Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 21-fold from 2013 to 2018

Petabytes per

Month

84% CAGR

Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR) Latin America (87.5% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR) North America (91.1% CAGR) Western Europe (85.5% CAGR)

0.2 EB 0.3 EB

0.6 EB

1.2 EB

2.1 EB

3.7 EB


Globally, M2M connections will grow more than 3-fold from 2013 (2.3B) to 2018 (7.3B) Globally, M2M traffic will account for 3% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.4% in 2013



In Brazil, M2M connections will grow nearly 3-fold from 2013 (65M) to 2018 (187M) In Brazil, M2M traffic will account for 1.7% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.2% in 2013



Internet of Everything Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018 Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018

Smart Cars Traffic (PB/

Month)

Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Smart Cars (M)

35 57

90

136

192

256

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3 5 8

15

25

41

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018














North America


Latin America


Western Europe






Asia Pacific



Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)


Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps)

Video Minutes per Viewer

Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer)

Video Minutes

per Viewer

Source: Cisco VNI, 2014

Indonesia India

Argentina Italy

Mexico

Brazil Australia

Chile

Russia Canada

U.K.

Sweden

Japan

Germany

China New Zealand

France

Spain U.S.


Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences

Online Video (HD movie download)

22 minutes Online Video

(HD movie download)

4 minutes Online Video

(HD movie download)

2 minutes

55% of all broadband connections by 2018

10 Mbps


50 Mbps 100 Mbps


(UHD movie download)

2 hours


23 minutes


12 minutes


North America

2-fold Growth 12–23 Mbps

Latin America


Western Europe



2.1-fold Growth 4–8.4 Mbps



Asia Pacific



Global Wi-Fi Speed Acceleration 2.2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (10 Mbps) to 2018 (21 Mbps)


In Brazil, Wi-Fi speeds will grow 2.0-fold reaching 10 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.8 Mbps in 2013.



Surge of Hotspots

Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018


Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014

Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today

Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today

Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today


Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

802.11 2 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet

802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Email

802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web

802.11ac 3.6 Gbps Max

Applications Enabled

High Resolution Video Wired Complement

802.11n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video

Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 13-fold from 2013 to 2018


North America

2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps

Latin America

1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps

Western Europe






Asia Pacific


Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 64 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Global Mobile Speed Growth Nearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps)


In Brazil, mobile speeds will grow 2.0-fold reaching 1.2 Mbps by 2018, up from 657 kbps in 2013.















Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

39%

36%

12%

21% CAGR 2013–2018

13%


LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 58% IP Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


29%

49%

13%

21% CAGR 2013–2018

9%


Brazil IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 57% IP Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


31%

50%

11%

20% CAGR 2013–2018

7%


Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


24%

44%

15%

23% CAGR 2013–2018

17%


LATAM Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 64% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


21%

54%

15%

20% CAGR 2013–2018

10%


Brazil Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 63% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


25%

55%

13%

19% CAGR 2013–2018

8%














Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018



LATAM Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology



Brazil Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology



Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Non-CDN Internet Traffic (63.8%, 44.7%) CDN Internet Traffic (36.2%, 55.3%)


Exabytes per Month


LATAM Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Non-CDN Internet Traffic (84.8%, 75.2%) CDN Internet Traffic (15.2%, 24.8%)


Exabytes per Month














Global IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 79% of Global IP Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gaming (0.05%, 0.09%) File Sharing (13%, 6%) Web/Data (21%, 15%) IP VOD (23%, 19%)

21% CAGR 2013–2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share


Latin America IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 81% of Global IP Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


21% CAGR 2013–2018



Brazil IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 82% of Global IP Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


20% CAGR 2013–2018



Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 11%)

25% CAGR 2013–2018



Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.5% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.5%)

28% CAGR 2013–2018



Higher Definition Content Impacts Brazil IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.8% of Brazil IP Video Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.8%)

26% CAGR 2013–2018



0

100

200

300

1 6 11 16

Long Tail Video Top 10* Sites Account for 41% of Videos Viewed (and >39% of Video Minutes)

Video Minutes

(B)

Top Video Sites


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1 6 11 16

Long Tail Video (Traffic) Top 10* Sites Account for 60% of Video Traffic

Exabytes per month

(EB)

Top Video Sites


Top Global Internet Video Sites by Traffic Volume (PC-Based Viewing)


Site PB per Month

1 Google / YouTube 1,977

2 FC2 539

3 Youku & Tudou 524

4 Dwango 476

5 LETV.COM 398

6 IQIYI.COM 358

7 Sohu.com Inc. 288

8 NETFLIX.COM 194

9 TENCENT Inc. 162

10 Facebook 146

Site PB per Month

11 Xunlei Networking 136

12 VEVO 86

13 Vimeo 72

14 Mail.ru Group 70

15 Dailymotion 68

16 Ustream 67

17 ALLMYVIDEOS.NET 60

18 BIGCINEMA.TV 60

19 NOWVIDEO.SX 58

20 Yahoo Sites 56


Global Internet Video Consumption Short Form Most Popular


Video Minute (B)

55%

39%

4% 1% 0

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Short Form Video Site

Long Form Video Site

Extra-Long Form Video Site

Micro-Video Site


Growing Length of Global Internet Video Long Form Video Will Account for 72% of Internet Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Long Form Video (64%, 72%)

Short Form and Micro Video (34%, 28%)

30% CAGR 2013–2018















Global Residential Market, by 2018:


63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013). Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013).


Global Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption

Online Music

Social Networking

Online Video

Online Gaming

VoIP

Digital TV

Video on Demand

Time Delayed TV

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2018 % Adop+on

Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion.

CAGR 2013–2018


Latin America Residential Market, by 2018:


63% (235 million) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 71% (122 million) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 562 million fixed residential devices and connections (up from 245 million in 2013). Average household will have 3.1 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).


Latin America Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Social Networking Will Have Highest Adoption

Note: By 2018, Latin America residential fixed internet population will be 235 million; the number of Latin America TV households will be 171 million.

CAGR 2013–2018

Online Music

Social Networking

Online Video

Online Gaming

VoIP

Digital TV

Video on Demand

Time Delayed TV

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption


Residential Services Implications / Opportunities

Residential Market Dynamics Residential Opportunities for Service Providers

•  More / new connections

•  Preference for mobility

•  Need to monetize increased network demand

•  Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections

•  Partner and form new eco-systems with OTTPs

•  Develop Wi-Fi / mobility plans

•  Bolster service portfolio with value-added IoE / M2M applications


Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:

Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018

There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).


Global Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption

CAGR 2013–2018

Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion.

MMS

Mobile Social Networking

Mobile Email Consumer

LBS Mobile Gaming

Mobile Banking & Commerce

Mobile Video

Mobile Music

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

2018 % Adop+on


Latin America Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:


There will be 450 million consumer mobile users (69% of population). There will be 813 million consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).


Latin America Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption

CAGR 2013–2018

Note: By 2018, Latin America consumer mobile population will be 450 million.

MMS Mobile Social Networking

Mobile Email

Consumer LBS

Mobile Gaming

Mobile Banking & Commerce

Mobile Video Mobile

Music

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2018 % Adoption


Consumer Mobile Implications / Opportunities

Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics Consumer Mobile Opportunities for Service Providers

•  More / new devices and connections

•  Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile

•  Demand for Wi-Fi offload and faster speeds

•  Need to monetize increased network demand

•  Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services

•  Shared data plans

•  Blend service offers with online services / content

•  Developing / monetizing Wi-Fi offers

•  Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands)


Global Business Market, by 2018:


There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users (62% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 3.9 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013). Average business internet user will have

1.8 devices and connections There will be 1.4 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 878 million in 2013).

Average business mobile user will have 2.4 mobile devices and connections


Global Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption

CAGR 2013–2018

Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million.

SMS

Mobile Email Room Based Video

Conferencing

IP Telephony

Business LBS

Audio Conferencing

Desktop Video Conferencing

Web Conferencing w/o Video

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

2018 % Adoption


Latin America Business Market, by 2018:


There will be 205 million business Internet users (68% of global work force). There will be 59 million business mobile users (19% of global work force). There will be 296 million business devices and connections (up from 205 million in 2013). Average business internet user will have

1.4 devices and connections There will be 134 million business mobile device and connections (up from 90 million in 2013).

Average business mobile user will have 2.3 mobile devices and connections


Latin America Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption

CAGR 2013–2018

Note: By 2018, Latin America business Internet population will be 205 million; the number of business mobile users will be 59 million.

SMS

Mobile Email Room Based

Video Conferencing

IP Telephony

Business LBS

Audio Conferencing

Desktop Video Conferencing

Web Conferencing w/o Video

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%

2018 % Adoption


Business Services Implications / Opportunities

Business Market Dynamics Business Segment Opportunities for Service Providers

•  More / new devices and connections—growing demand for BYOD

•  Low penetration of mobile devices

•  Growing demand for service transition from fixed to mobile

•  Premium security

•  Enhance productivity, customer support

•  Cloud services and storage— network, computing, infrastructure

•  Offer vertical specific IoE / M2M services

•  Blending and bundling with other services














Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

Traffic (Gbps)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Hour

Busy Hour


28% CAGR

23% CAGR


Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (LATAM) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

Traffic (Gbps)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Hour

Busy Hour


26% CAGR

20% CAGR


Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (Brazil) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

Traffic (Gbps)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Hour

Busy Hour


24% CAGR

19% CAGR


Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018

Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic

2.7 2.5 2.5

3.0 2.7

2.3 2.6

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.4

2.9 3.2

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Glo

bal

APA

C

LATA

M

NA

WE

CEE

MEA















1.3B

4.7B

0.7B

5B

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

Globally, By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 16% (2B) in 2013

37% CAGR

Number of Devices

(B)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018


0.05B

0.3B

0.1B

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

0.5B

In LATAM: By 2018, Nearly 49% (0.8B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 15% (0.1B) in 2013

39% CAGR

Number of Devices

(B)




794 Million by 2018 142 Million in 2013

41% CAGR

North America

2 Billion by 2018 367 Million in 2013

40% CAGR

Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 115 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

IPv6-Capable Fixed/Mobile Devices Forecast, 2013-2018

Western Europe


31% CAGR

Asia Pacific


37% CAGR

Latin America


39% CAGR



36% CAGR














Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits


Country % Broadband HH > 250 GB

% Mobile Users > 2 GB

Global 2.1% 3.8%

North America 4.7% 21.6%

Western Europe 1.6% 9.5%

Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3%

Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9%

Latin America 2.4% 1.0%

Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0%


Cisco VNI Web Sites

•  Press Release •  White Papers / FAQs •  Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa


Thank you.


World Cup Traffic Estimate: Nearly 70 TB


30,000 passengers on daily commuter trains for one hour

would generate over 30 terabytes of Internet traffic.

30,000 passengers on multiple 7-hour flights round-trip

would generate over 12 terabytes of Internet traffic.

60,000 spectators in Itaquerão Stadium

for 120 hours would generate over

25 terabytes of Internet traffic.














North America

1.7-fold Growth 12%

Latin America

6.7-fold Growth 5%

Western Europe

1.7-fold Growth 7%


2.1-fold Growth 1%


2-fold Growth 40%

Asia Pacific

1.8-fold Growth 42%


Fiber to the Home (FTTH) Connection Penetration Japan and South Korea to Have 82% and 71% FTTH/B by 2018














Growing Definition of Global Internet Video Ultra-HD Internet Video Will Account for 8% of Traffic in 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.05%, 8%)

High Def (HD) Video (24%, 46%)

Standard Def (SD) Video (76%, 46%)

30% CAGR 2013–2018



Internet Video Micro Video Making an Impact; Asia Leads Long Form Video Viewing

0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%

85% 83%

23% 21%

51%

75% 75%

11% 7%

77% 78% 36%

18% 22% 4% 7% 0% 1%

13% 6% 2%

0%

100%

3% 13% 6% 1% 5% 13% 9%

95% 84%

37% 40%

82% 79% 85%

2% 3%

58% 59%

12% 7% 6% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%

0%

100%

Share of Video Minutes Share of Videos Viewed


Netflix — U.S. and Global Long Form Video Subscription Site Generates 22 PB per Day

Netflix is video subscription service featuring long-form, professionally produced content.

Netflix users view almost 13 billion minutes of video per month on PCs alone, with additional viewing on other platforms, resulting in over 22 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

The bulk of Netflix viewing is TV-based. 22 Petabytes per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC


FC2 — Japan Video Sharing Site Generates 18 PB per Day

FC2 is a video-sharing site in Japan. Historically it has been known to allow “controversial” content, including pirated videos.

FC2 users view almost 36 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 18 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

FC2 ranks #2 globally for overall traffic. 18 Petabytes per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC


Youku Tudou — China Online Video Site Generates 17 PB per Day

Youku Tudou is China’s largest online video site, the result of a merger of Youku and Tudou in 2012. Content on Youku was initally user-generated, but the company is now focused on professionally produced videos, licensed from over 1,500 content partners.

Youku Tudou users view almost 35 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 17 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

Youku Tudou ranks #3 globally for overall traffic.

17 Petabytes per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC


Niconico (Dwango) — Japan Social Video Sharing Site Generates 15 PB per Day

Niconico is a video-sharing site with strong social viewing features. Video tags are crowd-sourced and overlaid onto the video.

Niconico has 25 million users who view almost 32 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 15 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

Niconico ranks #2 in Japan and #4 globally for overall video minutes, as well as traffic.

15 Petabytes per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC


QQLive (Tencent)—China Live Social Television Application Generates 5 PB per Day

Tencent’s QQLive is a live video streaming application. QQLive provides two modes to view, community mode and player mode. Community mode integrates chat room and forum.

QQLive has 200 million users who view almost 20 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 5 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

Tencent/QQLive ranks #5 in China and #9 globally for overall traffic.

5 Petabytes per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC


Ustream – U.S. Live and Ambient Video Site Generates 2 PB per Day

Ustream is a live video-sharing site. Contributors can use Ustream to broadcast events, games, and other content, live.

SERVICE

Ustream has 15 million users who view 2 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 2 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.

Ustream ranks #16 globally for overall traffic.

TRAFFIC

2 Petabytes per Day


Twitch Media—U.S. Online Spectator Gaming Site Generates 1 PB per Day

Twitch is a live video-sharing site for gamers. Spectators can tune in to watch contributors playing games in real time.

Twitch has 45 million users who view almost 5 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 1 petabyte per day of Internet traffic.

Twitch ranks #10 in the US, #11 in the UK for overall video minutes, and #18 globally.

Twitch ranks #16 globally for number of videos viewed, and #30 for total traffic generated.

1 Petabyte per Day

SERVICE

TRAFFIC