R Monika Hanson and Rickard Damm from Ericsson The reason for us being here is a sort of call to action for action to the design community in Sweden to take a lead in future digital and consumer devices. – A shift is happening right now and we will try to quickly outline what this might be
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R Ericsson has asked prominent thought leaders to provide us with their findings and visions around life in 2020. The foundation for all visions is the shift in society enabled by new technologies becoming available to a wider audience than ever before in history and also be fairly well distributed in the world. Maybe we through technology could become the first generation to extinct extreme poverty as Jeffery Sachs has envisioned with only 10% of the World population living in poverty by 2020.
7.7 billion people on earth
4 billion global “middle class”
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R Jeffrey Sachs, Professor at Columbia university. Also says that the world population is expected to grow to 7.7 billion in 2020 with and emerging “Global” middle class accounting to at least 4 Billion in 2020. All these middle class people will be empowered to consume according to a global norm with which they will identify. It is estimated that all of these people will at least own 10-12 connected devices each! World population will grow to ~7.7 billion by 2020 (according to UN). Growth markets will contribute to the rise of the middle class (growing by 1 billion in 10 years). There is a high variation in the estimated size of the middle class, but it will be brought to the range of 2.2-4.0 billion people worldwide by 2020. The middle class will be surrounded by digital devices. Already in 2014, in the US, it will be around 2.2 billion digital consumer electronic devices, computers, and mobile phones. This is about 7 devices per person, of which 5 will be connected by 2014. And this do not include intelligent cars, home alarms and home appliances, connected terminals in point of sale, automated industrial infrastructures, and not even office equipment. Important to note are drastic declines in poverty rates, with only about 10% living in poverty 2020, which means that a majority will have mobile phones and possibly other digital devices. At an incredible pace, connectivity now becomes an essential element of any digital device. It will eventually grow to 10-12 connected devices per person (for middle class), thus bringing the total number of connected devices to 22-50 billion. Furthermore, we should look at the number of embedded processors to be used in different types of devices. The number of shipped embedded processors have grown from below 2 billion in 2005 (excluding PCs) to 4 billion in 2009, and will continue to grow to 6 billion in 2012. With this pace it will be a cumulative 90 billion processors shipped between 2009 and 2020 (NB: rough estimate). Using the analogy with one of the first personal devices with a processor – the PC – eventually all these devices will be connected. In 2008, there were 1,698 million electricity meters, 767 million utility or billing water meters, and 395 million gas consumers in the world, according to ABS Energy Research's latest world meter reports on the three sectors (METERING.COM, June 12, 2009). In total, 2.9 billion utility meters. Today there are approximately 800 million private and 90 million commercial vehicles in use world wide (Bergh Insight, 2009), with most vehicle growth in emerging markets. Some say we will see 2 billion cars in 20 years time (http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2128). It is projected 150 million vehicles to have on-board telematics systems by 2014.
1 billion vehicles1 billion vehicles
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R PATRICIA LYON MOKHTARIAN �Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering,�University of California, Has made a interesting finding in her studies of how telecommunication and internet etc. has changed peoples travel patterns. It now seems as if people actually meet and travel more ! She estimates that by 2020 there will be at least 1billion vehicles around and 2 billion vehicles in 20 years time. Most of these cars, trucks etc. will communicate with each other in order to find the most appropriate road etc. World population will grow to ~7.7 billion by 2020 (according to UN). Growth markets will contribute to the rise of the middle class (growing by 1 billion in 10 years). There is a high variation in the estimated size of the middle class, but it will be brought to the range of 2.2-4.0 billion people worldwide by 2020. The middle class will be surrounded by digital devices. Already in 2014, in the US, it will be around 2.2 billion digital consumer electronic devices, computers, and mobile phones. This is about 7 devices per person, of which 5 will be connected by 2014. And this do not include intelligent cars, home alarms and home appliances, connected terminals in point of sale, automated industrial infrastructures, and not even office equipment. Important to note are drastic declines in poverty rates, with only about 10% living in poverty 2020, which means that a majority will have mobile phones and possibly other digital devices. At an incredible pace, connectivity now becomes an essential element of any digital device. It will eventually grow to 10-12 connected devices per person (for middle class), thus bringing the total number of connected devices to 22-50 billion. Furthermore, we should look at the number of embedded processors to be used in different types of devices. The number of shipped embedded processors have grown from below 2 billion in 2005 (excluding PCs) to 4 billion in 2009, and will continue to grow to 6 billion in 2012. With this pace it will be a cumulative 90 billion processors shipped between 2009 and 2020 (NB: rough estimate). Using the analogy with one of the first personal devices with a processor – the PC – eventually all these devices will be connected. In 2008, there were 1,698 million electricity meters, 767 million utility or billing water meters, and 395 million gas consumers in the world, according to ABS Energy Research's latest world meter reports on the three sectors (METERING.COM, June 12, 2009). In total, 2.9 billion utility meters. Today there are approximately 800 million private and 90 million commercial vehicles in use world wide (Bergh Insight, 2009), with most vehicle growth in emerging markets. Some say we will see 2 billion cars in 20 years time (http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2128). It is projected 150 million vehicles to have on-board telematics systems by 2014.
R Carlota Perez, Professor of Technology and Socio-Economic Development at Tallinn University of Technology By 2020 it estimated that there will be around 100 billion embedded processors. This is sort of where it gets interesting from a design perspective. Communication technology will not need to be bulky, expensive or even needed to adapt to in design. What if an internet connection was as easy to shape as wood for a table? Cole has been at the forefront of media and communication technology policy issues in both the United States and internationally for the past 25 years. In July 2004 Dr. Cole joined the as Director of the newly formed Center for the Digital Future and as a Research Professor World population will grow to ~7.7 billion by 2020 (according to UN). Growth markets will contribute to the rise of the middle class (growing by 1 billion in 10 years). There is a high variation in the estimated size of the middle class, but it will be brought to the range of 2.2-4.0 billion people worldwide by 2020. The middle class will be surrounded by digital devices. Already in 2014, in the US, it will be around 2.2 billion digital consumer electronic devices, computers, and mobile phones. This is about 7 devices per person, of which 5 will be connected by 2014. And this do not include intelligent cars, home alarms and home appliances, connected terminals in point of sale, automated industrial infrastructures, and not even office equipment. Important to note are drastic declines in poverty rates, with only about 10% living in poverty 2020, which means that a majority will have mobile phones and possibly other digital devices. At an incredible pace, connectivity now becomes an essential element of any digital device. It will eventually grow to 10-12 connected devices per person (for middle class), thus bringing the total number of connected devices to 22-50 billion. Furthermore, we should look at the number of embedded processors to be used in different types of devices. The number of shipped embedded processors have grown from below 2 billion in 2005 (excluding PCs) to 4 billion in 2009, and will continue to grow to 6 billion in 2012. With this pace it will be a cumulative 90 billion processors shipped between 2009 and 2020 (NB: rough estimate). Using the analogy with one of the first personal devices with a processor – the PC – eventually all these devices will be connected. In 2008, there were 1,698 million electricity meters, 767 million utility or billing water meters, and 395 million gas consumers in the world, according to ABS Energy Research's latest world meter reports on the three sectors (METERING.COM, June 12, 2009). In total, 2.9 billion utility meters. Today there are approximately 800 million private and 90 million commercial vehicles in use world wide (Bergh Insight, 2009), with most vehicle growth in emerging markets. Some say we will see 2 billion cars in 20 years time (http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2128). It is projected 150 million vehicles to have on-board telematics systems by 2014.
50 billion connected devices
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R Vint Cerf an American computer scientist and the "person most often called the father of the Internet". If you have by any chance done the math in previous slides it adds up to and expectation of 50 billion connected devices in 2020, compare with roughly 5 billion cellphones and 2 billion internet connectiuons today… Since Technology will be much cheeper and less bulky it will also be more democratically distributed than today – creating massive social shifts. The following slides will take us on a very short jurney of what life might be like in 2020 for the global middle class. His contributions have been recognized repeatedly, with honorary degrees, and awards that include the National Medal of Technology,[1] the Turing Award,[6] the Presidential Medal of Freedom,[7] and membership in the National Academy of Engineering. World population will grow to ~7.7 billion by 2020 (according to UN). Growth markets will contribute to the rise of the middle class (growing by 1 billion in 10 years). There is a high variation in the estimated size of the middle class, but it will be brought to the range of 2.2-4.0 billion people worldwide by 2020. The middle class will be surrounded by digital devices. Already in 2014, in the US, it will be around 2.2 billion digital consumer electronic devices, computers, and mobile phones. This is about 7 devices per person, of which 5 will be connected by 2014. And this do not include intelligent cars, home alarms and home appliances, connected terminals in point of sale, automated industrial infrastructures, and not even office equipment. Important to note are drastic declines in poverty rates, with only about 10% living in poverty 2020, which means that a majority will have mobile phones and possibly other digital devices. At an incredible pace, connectivity now becomes an essential element of any digital device. It will eventually grow to 10-12 connected devices per person (for middle class), thus bringing the total number of connected devices to 22-50 billion. Furthermore, we should look at the number of embedded processors to be used in different types of devices. The number of shipped embedded processors have grown from below 2 billion in 2005 (excluding PCs) to 4 billion in 2009, and will continue to grow to 6 billion in 2012. With this pace it will be a cumulative 90 billion processors shipped between 2009 and 2020 (NB: rough estimate). Using the analogy with one of the first personal devices with a processor – the PC – eventually all these devices will be connected. In 2008, there were 1,698 million electricity meters, 767 million utility or billing water meters, and 395 million gas consumers in the world, according to ABS Energy Research's latest world meter reports on the three sectors (METERING.COM, June 12, 2009). In total, 2.9 billion utility meters. Today there are approximately 800 million private and 90 million commercial vehicles in use world wide (Bergh Insight, 2009), with most vehicle growth in emerging markets. Some say we will see 2 billion cars in 20 years time (http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2128). It is projected 150 million vehicles to have on-board telematics systems by 2014.
Not so long ago, communication in the home was limited to a
telephone
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M Not so long ago, communication in the home was limited to a plain old telephone hanging on the kitchen wall. Some of the luckier homes might actually have two telephones…one for public use and one in a more private location (to support the needs of teenage daughters, for example). However now, the situation is much more complex than telephone service. Most homes are also tied into entertainment content through cable systems or IPTV offerings, and Internet connectivity is approaching ubiquity allowing for new ways of communication within the home.
¼
of the US and UK population are willing to spend $29-$46 per month to connect their gadgets
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M Consumers are willing to spend a considerable amount of money to connect their devices such as media players, navigators and cameras. The research shows that ¼ of the US and UK population (15-69 years old) are willing to spend $29-$46 per month to connect their gadgets. Countries: The US and the UK. Target group: People aged 15-49 who use a mobile phone at least monthly (personal or work phone). Sample size: 2223 respondents in total. US; 1112, UK; 1111. Japan to follow within short. Method: Interviews via web-based survey made by Synovate. Survey design and analysis conducted by Ericsson ConsumerLab. Weight: All countries have the same weight, i.e. not weighted based on e.g. population size Time: Interviews were conducted mid December 2009 (US, UK), and February 2010 (Japan).
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M The connected home has been a vision for the future for a long time. But an area whitin the home environement where you can really see it booming today is the TV. We’re heading towards a time where the traditional TV guide will soon be obsolete, because people don’t want to adjust their lives to fit a schedule. Instead, consumers put together their own solutions according to their interests, viewing situations, work life and so on. There will be a shift from ‘what’s on?’ to ‘what do I feel like watching?
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M There are mainly two ways of consuming TV, in a lean forward mode, searching for new content and in a lean back mode relaxing and beeing served with information. When the consumer is in the living room he usually wants to relax while watching TV in the sofa. Consumer studies at Ericsson, with over 7000 people interviewed globally, have shown that people are interested in having a device at home that serves as a second screen. From the device you can look at the TV program guide and also have it connected to the Internet in order to find more movies to watch.
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M Tim Brown, the CEO of the design consultancy company IDEO, states that in order to create great services innovators should look at extreme users, that are finding their own solutions to a need that the market hasn’t solved for them yet. A good example of such an user is Jari from Finland. Jari is a network engineer and way ahead of most people in connecting the devices in his house. He has put lots of time and effort into getting his home the way he wants.
“It enables me to listen to
internet radio and watch
movies while I’m in the sauna”
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M ''The house lets us know when a door is opened, if there is a leak and if the temperature is dropping,'' Jari says. ''When you know more about what is going on in the house, you can save money by taking action immediately. If I find out that the temperature is dropping, I can adjust the energy consumption.''
insights often come from extreme users
TIM Brown, IDEO
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Jari's connected home also gives him easy access to fun and entertaining services. ''My favorite application in the house is probably the one for the sauna,” he says. ''It enables me to listen to internet radio and watch movies while I’m in the sauna.''
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M One question that we’ve asked ourselves at Ericsson is ”what if this device could be more than just a TV remote?” What if it could be a mean for other services connected to the home and enable the user to manage his photos, music and data files with one device. This device could also be used for home and security surveillance e.g.
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Today a lot of digital devices are visible in the home. People spend time on hiding cables away and putting TV shelves . But what if the digital tools became a designobject in themselves and a TV could be bought for it’s beauty and not only the technical capabilities? What if my non digital belongings at home could become connected? What if my orange tree started twittering about it’s feelings?
What if a tv
looked like a framed
painting?
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Ericsson’s “Twittering Tree,” senses changes in the electromagnetic field around it as people pass, and sends Tweets that reflect its mood directly to its Twitter account, ConnectedTree. This tree also reacts to people’s presence and movements by playing music, speaking and turning on and off lights.��The tree’s responses aren’t random – they are based on the activity around it. When someone moves away from it the tree will express its “loneliness” with a particular tune and a tweet. When several visitors are competing for its attention, it will comment on how busy it is. A special response is generated when someone touches the tree and an SMS is sent to the passerby’s mobile phone. So how does it work and what is the technology behind it?�When someone walks by or approaches the Twittering Tree, its sensor transmits information about that movement and the changes it causes in its electromagnetic field to a processor in a nearby laptop, which then activates a number of responses.
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R Ericsson has put a few designers in a room - with refreshments maybe ;-) in order to envision life, attitudes and also devices in 2020. They cam up with many possible life stories and some really cool devices. I chose to show a couple The Memory Shrine is a device that presents collected images, film sequences music sounds, life history, relatives, friends – important memeories. Some gathered autimatically through the years other stoerd by the family. The memory shrine displays all of this in a random pattern and pace never repeating itself – much like our own memory. It also comes with a polished stone stored in the drawer below. The stone is the active controlling device. The harder you hold the stone the deeper and more private memories are displayed – this to me is by far the best user interface I have seen in a long time. You need to live with your memories. The Memory Shrine is a device that presents collected images, �short film sequences, music and sounds, life history, relatives, �important memories etc., at a random pattern, �never repeating itself from time to time. A small polished stone in a drawer activates the device. �As you hold and stroke the stone, the depth and intensity �of the memories are increased
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R Memory Shrine You need to live with your memories. The Memory Shrine is a device that presents collected images, �short film sequences, music and sounds, life history, relatives, �important memories etc., at a random pattern, �never repeating itself from time to time. A small polished stone in a drawer activates the device. �As you hold and stroke the stone, the depth and intensity �of the memories are increased
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R Another idea is the Life Balance display which aggregates and displays all your calendar and facebook etc. meetings and events showing your balance of work and private life. Now. The arena is yours. We urge the design community in Sweden to take a lead here in order to not loose our advantage we have with cutting edge technology and design people in Sweden… You are sometimes not aware that you work too much and neglect yourself and your family and friends. The Life Balance indicates a person’s life situation, balance between work and leisure, in real time. When you change the parameters and positions of events, balance is achieved.
