Plan C – Community Solutions

forHousing, Transportation

and Food

2009 Sustainable Energy SummitUniversity of Massachusetts,

Amherst

May 2, 2009

Presented by

Pat Murphy – Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387

Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions

Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities

Represents today’s trend to re-localization/localization

Humans develop optimally in a place over generations Our Home Town

Small communities under assault since end of WWII Made possible by cheap energy

In 2004 began focus on Peak Oil and Climate Change The factors that will lead to small community resurgence

New Watchword Needed!1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity

Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Energy” Implies a declining standard of living

Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels) Threatens life on earth

Record Inequity – from cheap fuels and cheap credit More violence and suffering Record levels of alienation

World Facing Energy Decline

ASPO says Peak Oil occurred 2008 IEA World Energy Annual 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil

World Threatened with Climate Crisis

CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!

World Inequity Highest in History

Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 U.S. Military predicting resource wars

Modern Technology – Problem or Solution?

10,000 years of Agrarian living ~250 years of technology living 65 years hyper-technology living

Modern world is an “energy” world

Technology is limited Fuel cell car 30 years late Electric cars 90 years old Fusion 40 years late Biofuels have not worked Power plants have changed little

Energy sources have major liabilities Fossil Fuels and Uranium

Oil and Gas Not enough resourcesCoal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphereNuclear fission Not enough resourcesNuclear fusion Too difficult

RenewablesBiomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soilHydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be producedPhotovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale?

Why are there so few options? Point of diminishing returns? Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?

Energy devices have major liabilities Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle

$17 billion spent – few cars

EV a less expensive debacle Few billion $ spent – ~ 4,000 made

PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid)

Green Building not very green – LEED and Energy Star 15 – 30% Savings at best: need 80 – 90%

Clean coal (carbon sequestration) means burying CO2 for centuries Completely unproven

Four Technology (Societal) Options

Plan A – Black (fossil fuels) Technology – more oil, coal, oil shale Plan B – Green (wind/solar/corn) TechnologyPlan D – Pessimistic View – possible, but little value in discussingPlan C – High Satisfaction “Low-E” Way of Living

Plan C – Curtail Consumption First Community Survival Strategies

We must cut energy use – fast !

Cuts must be deep IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly

Our focus: Cut energy under personal control House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy

Take responsibility Can’t wait for government Can’t wait for techno-fixes

Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy

A “Community” Context A “sufficiency” life style Conserving, Sharing & Saving vs. Competing, Hoarding & Consuming

Context where curtailment is not suffering Happiness is relationships, not stuff Live simply that others may simply live

Community is a cooperation principle Capitalism/Competition destroying life Happiness is local low–energy cooperative living

“If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – Per Capita Thinking Most people don’t grasp energy accounting

EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy

Understanding comes by per capita comparisons Country comparisons are always misleading Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous

There are three key “macro” considerations CO2 Generation (tonnes per capita per year) Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year) Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)

The numbers can be motivating – or discouraging!

CO2 – 90% Reduction require for Survival Per Capita Comparison

33 most populous nations 80% of world population

Survival (sustainable) level 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 4 tonne CO2 world average today 19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today

U.S. greatest CO2 contributor 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2

Need a 90% cut

World Breakdown – CO2, (Oil, $)

Rich world is most of OECD (Org. Econ. Cooper. & Devl.)

OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW)

U.S. is a separate category

US Personal Consumption Breakdown

Population: U.S. – 300M, OECD–L – 700M, ROW – 5,700M

U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home) Each sector uses more than total energy use of ROW

Setting Reduction Targets Housing – 15.4 BOE/c: cut 80%

Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model

Cars – 13.5 BOE/c: cut 75% Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit

Food – 10 BOE/c: cut 90% Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products Change your diet Eat locally grown non industrial food

Where do we get the Low–E Technology? Not in the U.S.!! Look at Kyoto signers

#1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most

Per capita square foot 1950 – 260; 2008 – 800

New US home size – 2,200 sq. ft.

1,000 sq. ft. in 1950

US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan

Small is beautiful–and survivable

U.S. Energy Use in Buildings

50% of US energy is used in buildings 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy

US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings) New building ~1.0 million units yearly

“Green Building” – too little, too late LEED, Energy Star ineffective

Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 30% (need 80% – 90%) “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction

And new construction only 1 – 2 % of total buildings

Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock

Home Energy Reductions – Easiest Lighting easiest – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three

Plug leaks: 10 – 20% of heat loss

Insulate attic – easy fix

Window coverings cheap and fast

Home Energy Reductions – Harder Replace windows

Replace appliances or do without

Thicken the “building envelope”

Move furnace/ductwork into the conditioned space

Thick Tight Building Envelope-The Core

Based on Super Insulated House of 1970s (Shurcliff) Very similar to current German “Passive House”

The German Passive House

Passive Houses use 90% less energy than conventional houses In heating and cooling Have no external heat source or air conditioning

13 Annual Passive House Conference Held two weeks ago in Frankfurt

Over 100 presenters

Tours of homes/schools

1,200 attendees from around the world

About 20,000 units built to date

18 years since first build – a maturing technology Windows, heat exchangers, insulation,

sealants

Achieving the 90% reduction

Must Retrofit Existing Buildings 1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House

Thicken walls, roof, floors First floor 4” rigid, 7 ½ “ regular Double wall added – 12’ total Roof rafters from 2x4 to 2x12

Heat exchanger added

Replaced windows

Need deep retrofits to 130 million US residences

And to five million commercial building

Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$ Wide range of estimates to redo all homes

130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion. Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget Or a year or two bailing out derivatives!

Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr) Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+ $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000

Culture might change to 1950s values – homeowners do work! Any serious group must develop retrofitting skills

#2 Target – The Private Car U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups

U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime

75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly

U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg

Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years This is a little known “scale” issue

U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone

Passengers per trip U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008

New Mass Transit Success Questionable

Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit

Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool – 1,294

How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)

Efficiency isn’t the answer From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars? 3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars 1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase 2–4% yearly oil depletion rate

What About a Jitney?

A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule

An unlicensed taxicab

Essence of the Jitney Mass transit with cars, not buses

Common in 85% of world

The “Smart” Jitney Proposal Every existing car is a jitney

“Shared transit “ – not mass transit

Made possible by new communications/GPS technology A software problem – not hardware; All components exist!

Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules

“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80%

Status – Operational ! ! ! Avego of Ireland is first out of the box Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA First conference held in April at MIT

#3 Target – Food May be the hardest change – behavior changes

But the easiest physically – no new technology

Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars

Suffering of food animals is beyond belief As little known as inequity

Garden and buy locally grown food CS has its own garden – supports CSA’s

John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!

Local Work in Yellow Springs Council formed Electrical System Task Force

Resulted in cancelling $3 million new substation At same time, withdrew from Amp Ohio coal plant

Council just formed Energy Task Force for long range planning

CS Board Member started house energy audit company

CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership Will review town’s energy use

Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto Must measure use and design solutions

Crisis Is Approaching Quickly

Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008 IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion

Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” Artic ice melt is accelerating

Survivability requires 80% reduction of energy use (4% yearly) “Incrementalism is death”.. Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)

No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV

Must change habits and way of life – become different people

Use intermediate existing technologies

Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us

Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D Car companies are near bankruptcy This will end our love affair with corporate America

Important to consider inequity in post great depression period Up to 1929: Very high inequity 1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity 1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup as in pre 1929 period

Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad In the depression community flourished!!

Expect a Community Resurgence Today is like pre-depression period (roaring 20s)

Things were declining before October 1929 – like now

The financial crisis is a crisis of character The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes Consumer debt triggered both depressions

Free Market has become a license to steal

Community provides the alternative value system Cooperation, not competition Values of “caring and sharing”

Summary CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community

No techno–fix will maintain current way-of-life

CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption Food, House, Car (or 38.6 BOE/c of 57.8 BOE/c) Working with Low E building organizations – ACI, PHIUS Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India

Our view – this is an exciting challenge World sacrificed community for consumerism Horrible mistake – community will be reborn

When community is strong energy (materialism) less important