Open Silicon Valley : March 2009

is cleantech maintech?Saul Griffith.Makanipower.com

"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Dep

ress

ion.

Oil

Crise

s.

Rece

ssio

n.

Sep.

11.2

001.

Two stories : one global, one personal.

HOW MUCH POWERDO I USE?

MY 2007 LIFE:17027 Watts

SFO TO

LHR 410 W

LHR-SFO

410 W

SFO-ATL 160 W

ATL-SFO 160 W

SFO-ATL-CPH 510 W

HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO 570 W

OAK-OGG-HON-OAK 560 W

SFO-BOS 210 W

BOS-SFO 210 W

OAK-DC 180 W

DC-OAK 180 W

OAK-ORD-MON-QUE 210 WQUE-DTW-SFO 210 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W

OAK-BUR 20 W

BUR-OAK 20 W

SFO-BOS 210 WBOS-ORD 70 WORD-SFO 140 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W

SJC-SJO 230 W

SJO-SJC 230 W

SJC-VIJ 280 W

VIJ-SJC 280 W

SFO-SYD1140 W

SFO-DR 310 W

DR-SFO 3

10 W

SFO-O

AK 280 W

OAK-S

FO 2

80 W

'SFO TO LHR' 'LHR-SFO' 'SFO-ATL' 'ATL-SFO' 'SFO-ATL-CPH' 'HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO' 'OAK-OGG-HON-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-SFO' 'OAK-DC' 'DC-OAK' 'OAK-ORD-MON-QUE' 'QUE-DTW-SFO' 'SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'OAK-BUR' 'BUR-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-ORD' 'ORD-SFO''SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'SJC-SJO' 'SJO-SJC' 'SJC-VIJ' 'VIJ-SJC''SFO-SYD' 'SFO-DR' 'DR-SFO' 'SFO-OAK' 'OAK-SFO'

HOND

A IN

SIG

HT 3

10 W

DU

NE B

UG

GY V

W 1

50 W

TOYO

TA H

ILU

X 16

0 W

DO

DG

E SP

RIN

TER

100

WTO

YOTA

TAC

OM

A 24

0 W

TAXI

ORR

ENTA

L 47

0 W

SHO

WERS G

AS 70 WC

OO

KING

GAS 30 W

HEATIN

G G

AS 400 WFRID

GE ELEC

30 WC

OM

PUTER ELEC

10 WLAPTO

P ELEC 1 W

STEREO ELEC

1 WLIG

HTS ELEC

70 WO

THER ELEC

8 W

MEAT & EGGS 160 W

DAIRY 50 W

FATS AND OILS 30 WFRUIT, VEG & NUTS 90 W

CEREALS & GRAINS 10 W

SUGAR 20 WBEER & W

INE 60 W

COFFEE 20 WAG. PESTICIDES 10 W

AG. FERTILIZER 50 W

AG. ELECTRIC 40 W

AG. FOSSILFUELS 80 W

WORKELECTRIC 410 W

WORKHEAT 200 W

CARS 560 WBOATS 50 W

INTERNET 70 W

COMPUTERS 700 W

ELECTRONICS 250 W

NEWS 180 W

BIKES 6 WWATER 160 W

WASTEDISPOSAL 9 W TRANSPORTTOME 40 W

TEXTILES 90 W

BOOKS 130 W

MISCSTUFF1000 W

HOUSE 260 WRECREATION 110 W

HEALTHCARE 680 WFINANCE 60 WEDUCATION 340 W

WHITEGOODS 8 W

DEFENSE 100 W

ENERGY 4 W

GSA 2 W

HHS 1 W

JUSTICE 4 W

NASA 1 W

POSTAL-SERVICE 5 W

VETERANS-AFFAIRS 3 W

OTHER 4 W

STREETLIGHTS 4 W

GOV.VEHICLES 3 W

ROADS 330 W

OTHER 3 W

NON-

ACCO

UNTED

2960

W

Saul, 2007 =18000 Watts

Book

sheetsofpaper

framed art

CD

jewelcase

boardgame

New

sPapers

monthlymagazine

quarterlymagazine

projectionscreen

Mobile Phone

Desktop Computer

Laptop

Washing Machine

Refrigerator Oven

Dryer

House

Bicycles

Catam

aran

s

mot

orcy

cleh

elm

et

Gol

fClu

bs infla

tabl

eele

phan

t

Bik

emes

seng

erba

g m

otor

cycl

e su

rfboa

rd

golfb

all

golft

ee

tenn

isba

ll

tenn

isra

cket

Toot

hbru

sh

Sha

mpo

o (m

l) P

aper

cup

toot

hpas

te

cond

ition

er

teacandle detergentw

ashingpowder

toiletpaperroll clingw

rapsaran

aluminum

foil w

axedpaper S

hoes

Watch-C

oach W

oolenHat

t-shirt

pants coatjacket

socks woolhat

uggboots

crocsshoes

leathershoes w

idebrimhat

mensocks

menunderw

ear m

enshorts shirtm

enscollared cargopants

coverallsoveralls

beltleather

MenW

oolSuit

Table(Wood)

Chair

futonmattress

metalfutonfram

e

woodenfutonfram

e

Bookshelf w

oolenfloorrug

pillow

Sofabenchsittingkitchen

diningtable

chairdining sofabed

plantpotlarge

plantpotsmall stepstool

sidetable

KitchenPot

ricecooker

copperfryingpan

coppersaucepan kitchenknife

espressomachine

knifeblock

cuttingboard rollingpin

canopener

bottleopener

kitchenknives

coffeemug

tableknife

tablefork

teaspoon

soupspoons teapot

teakettle

sixcupFrench

butcherblock steelm

ug

ceramicm

ug

waterglass

saladplate bowl

dinnerplate

WineG

lass

cakestand

saladbowl

carvingset

woodenspoon

bamboospoon m

etalspatula rubberspatula

whisk key

paintroller

cellphonecover

powerstrip

deskphone

ToolChest

umbrella

conferencebag

suitcasecarry

artificialchristmastree

naturalchristmastree

aluminumstepladder

extensioncord

volkswagendunebuggy

toyotapickup

Honda Insight

TRAS

H

PHYSICAL STUFF ~2500 Watts

0 10 20 30 40 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 Qatar2 Iceland3 United Arab Emirates4 Bahrain5 Luxembourg6 Netherlands Antilles7 Kuwait8 Trinidad and Tobago9 Canada10 United States11 Brunei Darussalam12 Finland13 Norway14 Sweden15 Australia

16 Belgium17 Saudi Arabia18 Singapore19 Gibraltar20 Netherlands21 Oman22 France23 Russian Federation24 New Zealand25 Korea, Rep26 Czech Rep27 Germany28 Austria29 Japan30 United Kingdom31 Denmark32 Ireland33 Switzerland34 Estonia35 Turkmenistan36 Slovenia37 Slovakia38 Kazakhstan39 Cyprus40 Spain41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya42 Israel43 Italy44 Ukraine45 Greece46 Belarus47 Lithuania48 South Africa49 Hungary50 Bulgaria

kilo

wat

ts

Per Capita Energy Use 2003

US Average.

Global Average

Per capita power use 2003

If the average American were to leave home each morning with a backpack full of the fuel they need-ed for their day:

Oil = 10 kg = 23 lb.Coal = 10 kg = 23 lb.Gas = 200 cubic feet.

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ener

gy (T

W)

2007 Energy Consumption - Primary use by fuel type

Elec

tric

ity G

enTr

ansp

orta

tion

Indu

stry

Cooki

ngAir

Heatin

gIn

dust

rial S

team

Agric

ultu

re &

For

estr

yW

ater

Hea

ting

Ligh

tDis

trib

utio

n

Min

ing

OilCoalNatural GasBioHydroNuclearWindGeothermalSolarTidal

Which has led to this problem :

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

year

CO!

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pm)

CO! L

evel

(ppm

)

Year

Ice Core 20 year AverageLaw Dome Antarctica

Mauna Loa Direct MeasurementHawaii

0 10 20 30 40 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA2 USSR3 CHINA_MAINLAND4 GERMANY_COMBINE5 JAPAN_COMBINE6 UNITED_KINGDOM7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO9 INDIA10 CANADA11 POLAND12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO14 SOUTH_AFRICA15 MEXICO

16 AUSTRALIA17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA18 BELGIUM19 SPAIN20 BRAZIL21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA22 NETHERLANDS23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN24 SAUDI_ARABIA25 INDONESIA26 ROMANIA27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA28 ARGENTINA29 VENEZUELA30 TURKEY31 UKRAINE32 TAIWAN33 AUSTRIA34 SWEDEN35 HUNGARY36 THAILAND37 DENMARK38 ALGERIA39 BULGARIA40 EGYPT41 GREECE42 SWITZERLAND43 NIGERIA44 MALAYSIA45 FINLAND46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES47 KAZAKHSTAN48 IRAQ49 COLOMBIA50 PAKISTAN

Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning,Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2004

giga

met

ric to

ns o

f car

bon

Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce-ment manufacture, and gas flaring: 1751-2004

Out of equilibrium

AccessibleFossil Fuels1600 GtC

Soils3000 GtC

Vegetation700 GtC

Oceans40000 GtC

Atmosphere~700 GtC +2 / yr

Atmosphere to Ocean 2 GtC/year

Carbon to Atmosphere 8 GtC/year

Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century

- 1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 + 1

Trends in °C per decade

-1 -0.8 +0.8-0.6 +0.6-0.4 +0.4-0.2 +0.20 +1

What temperature do we choose?

?????

A1BA1TA1FIA2B1B2IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Tem

pera

ture

Ris

e, d

egre

es C

elsi

us.

Tem

pera

ture

Ris

e, d

egre

es C

elsi

us

Choose your target

10% Species Lost

1000ppm

750ppm

650ppm

550ppm

500ppm

450ppm

400ppm

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

20-50% Species Lost1-4 Billion people face water shortages

15-40% Species Lost

2.0

650

550

450ppm

(year2000) 368

Preindustrial 280

What temperature did I choose?

+2oC

Effect on CO2 PPM1 Billion Tons Carbon +0.26

Terawatt Years (COAL) +0.198Terawatt Years (OIL) +0.155

Terawatt Years (GAS) +0.112

60 PPM to go (to 450)...

around 400 TW years of fossil fuel burning...

40 years at 10TW, 20 years at 20TW ...

The simplest climate model:

CO2ppmfuture = CO2ppmcurrent + 0.55 * (0.36*TWyrcoal + 0.28*TWyroil + 0.204*TWyrgas)

+ GTCdeforestation

Units shown in Terawatts (TW)

Energy production

Plants: 5.2

Tidal: 0.0005

Solar: 0.016

Wind: 0.06

Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6

Geothermal: 0.03

Nuclear: 1

Hydro: 0.36

Oil:5

18 TWHumanity

Global Exergy ConsumptionUnits shown in Terawatts

Other 2.5 Chemicals Metabolism Lighting Refrigeration

Electricity 1.7

Manufacturing & Industrial 3

Road & Rail 2.1

Heating & Cooking 2.3

Forestry 3

Global Energy Consumption

Agriculture 3.8

Units shown in Terawatts (TW) 18 TWHumanity

Sources of renewable energy.

31 000 TW Atmospheric Absorption

85 000 TW Surface Solar

62 TW Ocean surface waves

90 TW Photosynthesis

65 TW Land3 TW Coastal waves

7.2 TW Hydro Rivers

300 TW Hydro Clouds

25 TW Hydro Land

3600 TW Wind

41 000 TW Evaporation

38 000 TW Land & Water heating

3.5 TW Tidal

32 TW Geo thermal

25 TW Ocean

100 TW Ocean thermal gradient

16 TWGlobal consumption

2TW Fossil Fuels

2TW New Photo-Voltaic Solar

2TW New Solar Thermal

2TW New Wind

0.5TW New Other

Units shown in Terawatts (TW)2033 Energy Mix

Solar Thermal: 2

Fossil Fuels: 2

(carbon-free) Biofuels: 0.5

Existing Nuclear: 1Existing Hydro /

Renewables: 0.5

Wind:2

Nuclear: 3 Geothermal 2

Photo Voltaic Solar 2

15 TW

that looks workable...

what do we have to build?

2 TW New Photo Voltaic

100m"

100m"100m"

100m"100m"

100m"100m"100m"100m"100m"

100m"

100m

"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100m

"10

0m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"100m"

100m"100m" 100m" 100m" 100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100

m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100m"

100 m! of solar cells

every second for the next

25 years. 15% efficiency,

good sitting.

1 sec.

Photo Voltaic

2 TW New Solar Thermal

50m"50m"50m"

50m"50m"

50m"50m"50m"50m"50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50

m"

50

m"

50

m"

50

m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"50m"50m"

50m"50m" 50m" 50m" 50m" 50m" 50m

"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50

m"

50

m"

50

m"

50

m"

50

m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50m"

50

m"

! 25 years50 m! of solar thermal

mirrors every second for

the next 25 years. 30%

efficiency, well sited.

1 sec.

Solar Thermal

100m Diameter

100m Diameter100

m D

iam

eter

100

m D

iam

eter

100m Diameter

100m Diameter

100m Diameter

100

m D

iameter

100

m D

iameter

100m Diameter

12 3MW wind turbines in

great locations every hour.

Or one 100m diameter

turbine every 5 minutes…

6 min.

2 TW New Wind Wind

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SATMarch

3 TW New Nuclear

1x 3GW Nuclear plant every

week for the next 25 years.

Nuclear

2 TW Geothermal

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SATMarch

3x 100MW

steam turbines

every day for

next 25 years.

Geothermal

0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?.

1250m"

1250m"1250m"

1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250

m"

1250

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

1250

m"

1250

m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"1250m"

1250m" 1250m" 1250m" 1250m"1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

12

50

m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250m"

1250 m! or 1 olympic

swimming pool of algae

every second for the next

25 years.

1 sec.

Biofuel

Is that industrially possible?

what should Detroit do?

110 bn cans / year...= 200 GW solar thermal / year.

9 Nokia phones every second.Nokia + INTEL + AMD + + for solar PV?

GM = 1 car every 2 minutes.GM + FORD = 1 wind turbine every 5 minutes?

Retooling for WWII.

More than 300 000 aircraft were built in the US between 1939 and 1945.

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

5

10

15G

LOB

AL

PO

WE

R C

ON

SU

MP

TIO

N, T

W

10 TWin last40 years!

Land area by country represented as scaled stripes

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

equal land area per person globally represented as square

sauls square of land required for his watts generated by solarAverage US citizen square of land required for watts generated by solar

global average persons square of land to generate their energy with renewables

meters

met

ers

Land area per person in USA

Land area per person globally

Land area required to produce my power consumption with solar.

Land area for average US citizen by solar.

Land area for average global citizen by solar.

MY 2007 LIFE17027 W (pre tax)

SFO TO

LHR 410 W

LHR-SFO

410 W

SFO-ATL 160 W

ATL-SFO 160 W

SFO-ATL-CPH 510 W

HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO 570 W

OAK-OGG-HON-OAK 560 W

SFO-BOS 210 W

BOS-SFO 210 W

OAK-DC 180 W

DC-OAK 180 W

OAK-ORD-MON-QUE 210 WQUE-DTW-SFO 210 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W

OAK-BUR 20 W

BUR-OAK 20 W

SFO-BOS 210 WBOS-ORD 70 WORD-SFO 140 WSFO-JFK 200 WJFK-SFO 200 W

SJC-SJO 230 W

SJO-SJC 230 W

SJC-VIJ 280 W

VIJ-SJC 280 W

SFO-SYD1140 W

SFO-DR 310 W

DR-SFO 3

10 W

SFO-O

AK 280 W

OAK-S

FO 2

80 W

'SFO TO LHR' 'LHR-SFO' 'SFO-ATL' 'ATL-SFO' 'SFO-ATL-CPH' 'HEL-AMS-ATL-SFO' 'OAK-OGG-HON-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-SFO' 'OAK-DC' 'DC-OAK' 'OAK-ORD-MON-QUE' 'QUE-DTW-SFO' 'SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'OAK-BUR' 'BUR-OAK' 'SFO-BOS' 'BOS-ORD' 'ORD-SFO''SFO-JFK' 'JFK-SFO' 'SJC-SJO' 'SJO-SJC' 'SJC-VIJ' 'VIJ-SJC''SFO-SYD' 'SFO-DR' 'DR-SFO' 'SFO-OAK' 'OAK-SFO'

HOND

A IN

SIG

HT 3

10 W

DU

NE B

UG

GY V

W 1

50 W

TOYO

TA H

ILU

X 16

0 W

DO

DG

E SP

RIN

TER

100

WTO

YOTA

TAC

OM

A 24

0 W

TAXI

ORR

ENTA

L 47

0 W

SHO

WERS G

AS 70 WC

OO

KING

GAS 30 W

HEATIN

G G

AS 400 WFRID

GE ELEC

30 WC

OM

PUTER ELEC

10 WLAPTO

P ELEC 1 W

STEREO ELEC

1 WLIG

HTS ELEC

70 WO

THER ELEC

8 W

MEAT & EGGS 160 W

DAIRY 50 W

FATS AND OILS 30 WFRUIT, VEG & NUTS 90 W

CEREALS & GRAINS 10 W

SUGAR 20 WBEER & W

INE 60 W

COFFEE 20 WAG. PESTICIDES 10 W

AG. FERTILIZER 50 W

AG. ELECTRIC 40 W

AG. FOSSILFUELS 80 W

WORKELECTRIC 410 W

WORKHEAT 200 W

CARS 560 WBOATS 50 W

INTERNET 70 W

COMPUTERS 700 W

ELECTRONICS 250 W

NEWS 180 W

BIKES 6 WWATER 160 W

WASTEDISPOSAL 9 W TRANSPORTTOME 40 W

TEXTILES 90 W

BOOKS 130 W

MISCSTUFF1000 W

HOUSE 260 WRECREATION 110 W

HEALTHCARE 680 WFINANCE 60 WEDUCATION 340 W

WHITEGOODS 8 W

DEFENSE 100 W

ENERGY 4 W

GSA 2 W

HHS 1 W

JUSTICE 4 W

NASA 1 W

POSTAL-SERVICE 5 W

VETERANS-AFFAIRS 3 W

OTHER 4 W

STREETLIGHTS 4 W

GOV.VEHICLES 3 W

ROADS 330 W

OTHER 3 W

NON-

ACCO

UNTED

2960

W

Saul, 2007 =18000 Watts

Also contains per bottle

Plasticizers 43mg†Estrogen 0.12mg†Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg†

† Safe daily values not yet established.

Consumption FactsContainer Mass 1.58oz (44.9g)Components per container 3

Embodied Energy Per Container

Total 4,609,420 Joules

PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 JoulesHDPE 4.83g 497,500 JoulesCellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules

Recycle rate 23%

Landfill rate 43%

Energy recovery rate 16%

Lost to environmental waste 18%

Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value*

Total 4.54%

Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69%

Manufacture 0.46%

Embodied Energy 2.67%

Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71%

* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000 Watt lifestyle. The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle.! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your energy footprint by 90 Watts.

1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10-21 ppm increase.

How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a 1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm

How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm

How many ppm for installing :

5TW solar = 6.1 ppm3TW wind = 0.55 ppm2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm

So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary.

Might be good to ask questions of form:

How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm

is cleantech maintech?

Not even close.Not until the scale is so massive, that people are protesting it.

Design for the age of consequence.

wattzon.comMeasure what is measureable, make measure-able what is not. - Galileo

100 mpg ?20 Miles per day.

500Watts.

2255 Watt thinking:

55mph

100kph