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Fisheries scientist Jerri Bartholomew's 2010-2012 research project for Oregon Sea Grant
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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon:
How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival?
Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University
*[email protected]://microbiology.science.oregonstate.edu/fac_bartholomew
Jerri Bartholomew
Fish Disease Research
Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change
Interactions with Disease
Streamflowpatterns
Streamflowpatterns
Host life histories Host life histories
Thermal regimesThermal regimes
NutrientsNutrients
Myxospore stageMyxospore stageActinospore stageActinospore stage
Polychaete hostPolychaete host
Salmon hostSalmon host
Decreased longevity
Increased parasite replication
Altered timing of parasite release
Stress causing reduced disease thresholds
Changes in population dynamics
Altered spore longevity?
Ceratomyxa shasta life cycle
Outcomes
Changes in disease severity
Changes in seasonal
cycles
Changes in pathogen range
Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance
Young’s Bar Orleans
Williamson River
Keno Eddy
Seiad Valley
Above Beaver Creek
Klamathon
IGD
LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER
UPPER KLAMATH
RIVER
OREGON
PACIFIC OCEAN
CALIFORNIA
1 spore/L
Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette
RiverWater sample analysis for parasite
DNA
Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance
Young’s Bar Orleans
Williamson River
Keno Eddy
Seiad Valley
Above Beaver Creek
Klamathon
IGD
LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER
UPPER KLAMATH
RIVER
OREGON
PACIFIC OCEAN
CALIFORNIA
Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles
temptemp ctct
AA BB CC AA BB CC11 18.218.2 17.817.8 DryDry 30.130.1 27.827.8
DryDry
33 19.619.6 16.016.0 34.034.0 28.628.6
55 19.119.1 17.417.4 34.334.3 29.729.7
77 18.918.9 15.815.8 31.431.4 29.929.9
99 18.718.7 18.118.1 28.828.8 30.630.6
1111 18.718.7 17.217.2 33.633.6 30.130.1
1313 18.918.9 17.817.8 28.728.7 26.926.9
1515 18.618.6 27.827.8
1717 18.818.8 28.128.1
1919 18.918.9 29.829.8
2121 19.119.1 27.827.8
2323 18.818.8 28.728.7
Study aim: Predict changes in C. shasta range based on projected temperature changes
• Predict where dissemination may occur
• Predict where the parasite may disappear
• Develop a qualitative risk assessment
QUESTIONS?
Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette
RiverYoung’s Bar Orleans
Williamson River
Keno Eddy
Seiad Valley
Above Beaver Creek
Klamathon
IGD
LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER
UPPER KLAMATH
RIVER
OREGON
PACIFIC OCEAN
CALIFORNIA
Water sample analysis for parasite DNA
Predict disease severity in salmon
Young’s Bar Orleans
Williamson River
Keno Eddy
Seiad Valley
Above Beaver Creek
Klamathon
IGD
LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER
UPPER KLAMATH
RIVER
OREGON
PACIFIC OCEAN
CALIFORNIA
10 spores/L