Mekong ARCC - ICEM Study Results Overview - Dr. Jeremy Carew-Reid

1

Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation

Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems

Final Regional Workshop 28-29 March 2013, Bangkok, Thailand

Take an ecosystems approach in:

1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor

and their environment - water resources, food security,

livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife);

2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific

evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites;

3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community

and ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and

4. Communicating the results of the vulnerability

assessment and adaptation planning.

ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management

2

ARCC Task 2: CC Vulnerability Assessment &

Adaptation Study - Objectives

Outline of presentation

• Study approach and methods

• Key concepts

• Climate change threats

• Climate change threat hot

spots

• Vulnerability of farming

systems

• Adaptation principles

• Basin conclusions

ICEM 2012 3

Farming systems climate

change vulnerability continuum

4

ICEM, 2012

Intensive farming

High productivity Low productivity

Natural systems

STUDY METHODS

ICEM 2012 5

6

The climate change

adaptation cycle

7

EXPOSURE SENSITIVTY

X = IMPACT

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

VULNERABILITY

=

Vulnerability

assessment

8 Defining the asset inventory – the key species & systems in

the LMB

THEMATIC APPROACH

Key elements in the

VA methodology

9 Quantifying CC threats in ways which are relevant to the

area, systems and their species

MODELLING

HOT SPOT RANKING

Key elements in the

Threat assessment

10 Quantifying CC threats in ways which are relevant

to the area, systems and their species

MODELLING

HOT SPOT RANKING

Key elements in the

Threat Assessment

11 Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features,

processes and functions of LMB assets

SPATIAL ZONING

SENSITIVITY

ANALYSIS

Key elements in the

Baseline assessment

Ecozones

Sub-catchments

Livelihoods

Provinces

ADAPTATION AUDIT

12 Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features,


• Characterization of

system/species

thresholds & tolerances

to hydroclimate

parameters

Key elements in the

Baseline Assessment

SPATIAL ZONING

SENSITIVITY

ANALYSIS

ADAPTATION AUDIT

13

Key elements in the

Baseline Assessment

Characterising the biophysical and socio-economic features,


SPATIAL ZONING

SENSITIVITY

ANALYSIS

ADAPTATION AUDIT

14 Assessing the potential impacts of the threats on the assets

CAM SPECIES IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

Key elements in the

Impact Assessment

CAM IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

CROP YIELD &

SUITABILITY

MODELLING

INTEGRATED SPATIAL

ANALYSIS


CAM SPECIES IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

Key elements in the

Impact Assessment

CAM IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

CROP YIELD &

SUITABILITY

MODELLING

INTEGRATED SPATIAL

ANALYSIS

41%

25%

19%

15%


Habitat name

Expert team

Wetland name and location

Variable ScoreConfidence Comments/notes/ rational

1 · <75%

2 · >25% and <75%

3 · >25%

1 · <75%

2 · >25% and <75%

3 · >25%

1· <75%

2 · >25% and <75%

3 · >25%

1 · <75%

2 · >25% and <75%

3 · >25%

1 · pretty sure they will not

2 · 50/50 chance

3 · pretty sure they will

0

Definitions

Exposure

Habitat Climate Change Exposure and Definitions

1. How much of this habitat type will be

exposed to changing hydrology and

hydraulics (i.e. flows)?


exposed to sea level rise and changes in

the tidal rainstorm events and storm

surge?

0

0


exposed to changes in sediment washed

down from the watershed, resulting

from soil erosion changes?


exposed to changes in extent, depth and

duration of inundation from rainfall?

5. Will baseline stress be increased by

the new climate in the LMB?

Key elements in the

Impact Assessment

CAM SPECIES IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

CAM IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

CROP YIELD &

SUITABILITY

MODELLING

INTEGRATED SPATIAL

ANALYSIS

17 Assessing the capacity of species and systems to recover from the

impact

ADAPTICE CAPACITY

SCREENING CRITERIA

Key elements in the

VA methodology

Social Factors – Social networks

– Insurance

– Knowledge and skills

Natural Systems – Species diversity and integrity

– Species and habitat tolerance levels

Infrastructure – Availability of material resources (construction and

maintenance)

Cross cutting Factors: – The range of available adaptation technologies

– Availability and distribution of financial resources

– Skills and knowledge

– Management and response systems

– Political will

18 Establishing the relative level of vulnerability based on the impact

and adaptive capacity

VA matrix

Key elements in the

VA methodology

19

2. Adaptation planning

1. Review the most vulnerable assets

2. Lookng back to define the impacts

which require adaptation responses

3. Defining the adaptation options

4. Setting prioritities among options

5. Integrating adaptation priorities

6. Building adaptation packages

into plans and projects

To identify (i) the

assets which have

been assessed as

most vulnerable in

the CAM VA process

and (ii) the threats

to which those

assets are most

vulnerable

For the most

vulnerable assets -

identify the most

significant impacts

which will require

adaptation

responses

For each vulnerable

assets define a

range of adaptation

options for the

species group,

habitats,

ecosystems which

address the most

significant impacts

Defining which

options (i) are most

important, (ii) have

the greatest

chances of success,

(iii) are feasible, (iv)

do not have

negative effects on

other sectors or

other adaptations

(now or in future).

Also, identifying the

order of adaptation

and needed phasing

– or what needs to

be done now and

what can be left to

later

Identifying synergies

and needed linkages

between adaptation

priorities.

For each priority

define key activities

Integrate priorities

as adaptation

packages or projects

Prepare strategy for

“mainstreaming”

into development

plans and policies.

Preparing Design

Management

Frameworks for

each priority

1. Review the most vulnerable assets

2. Lookng back to define the impacts

which require adaptation responses

3. Defining the adaptation options

4. Setting prioritities among options

5. Integrating adaptation priorities

6. Building adaptation packages

into plans and projects

To identify (i) the

assets which have

been assessed as

most vulnerable in

the CAM VA process

and (ii) the threats

to which those

assets are most

vulnerable

For the most

vulnerable assets -

identify the most

significant impacts

which will require

adaptation

responses

For each vulnerable

assets define a

range of adaptation

options for the

species group,

habitats,

ecosystems which

address the most

significant impacts

Defining which

options (i) are most

important, (ii) have

the greatest

chances of success,

(iii) are feasible, (iv)

do not have

negative effects on

other sectors or

other adaptations

(now or in future).

Also, identifying the

order of adaptation

and needed phasing

– or what needs to

be done now and

what can be left to

later

Identifying synergies

and needed linkages

between adaptation

priorities.

For each priority

define key activities

Integrate priorities

as adaptation

packages or projects

Prepare strategy for

“mainstreaming”

into development

plans and policies.

Preparing Design

Management

Frameworks for

each priority

3. Adaptation implementation

1. Construction and instalment:

rehabilitation, enhancement and

avoidance measures

2. Operations: maintenance and

repair for resilience

3. Monitoring and

enforcement

4. Adjust and renew: based on lessons and new

influences

5. Replicate and reinforce

May involve, for

example,

bioengineering, habitat

reconstruction,

development control

and introduction of

economic inceptive

schemes, management

and consultative

structures

An essential

ongoing investment

in maintenance to

reinforce the

adaption measures

installed

Monitoring to assess if

the adaptation

measures are working

as expected, and if

adjustments and

additional measures are

needed. Enforcement

of environmental and

social safeguards and

agreed adaptation

Make adjustments,

major repairs and

invest in additional

measure as required

in response to

changing conditions

Innovations at

higher levels to

policies and

procedures,

institutional

arrangements and

planning tools.

Replicate in other

areas what is

working well.

STUDY CONCEPTS

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Task 2 study key concepts

Three “shifts” associated with climate change in the

LMB

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Climate change shifts

Ecological shifts

Farming system shifts

Shifts


Regular climate shifts

1. Geographic shifts (space):

latitude and longitude

elevation

2. Seasonal shifts (time)

onset and end,

variability

Extreme events shifts

3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location

Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands

Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall

24 ICEM 2012


Ecological shifts


Shifts

Geographic shift

in climate

Paddy rice and

commercial crops

Shift in zone of suitability

for habitat and crops Original extent of

natural habitat

Remaining

natural habitat

pockets

Subsistence crops and NTF

collection 25

ICEM 2012

Shifts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Day

s of

occ

ure

nce

per

year

Daily maximum temperature (Deg C)

Baseline Climate change

Temperatures

below 20 °C will

not occur

Temperatures

between 20 – 29 °C

will occur less often Temperatures between 29 –

44°C will occur more often

Temperatures above

44 ° C will start

occurring

Mean of maximum

temperatures will increase

from 27 – 30 °C

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Day

s of

occ

ure

nce

per

year

Daily maximum temperature (Deg C)

Baseline Climate change

Mondulkiri - average daily maximum

temperature shift

Ecological shifts due to cc in the LMB

• Geographic shift in species ranges

• Substantial range losses

• Seasonal shifts in life cycle events (eg. advances in

flowering and fruiting, fish and bird migration)

• Community composition changes: Warm-adapted

species in communities increase – others die out

• Body size changes - warming associated with

decreased body size

• Genetic changes (eg tolerance shifts; stress proteins)

ICEM 2012 28


Ecological shifts


Shifts

Farming ecosystem shifts – climate

and ecological changes will lead to, for example:

• Diminished ecological provisioning services:

Increased reliance on hybrids

Diminished wild genetic diversity

Reduced crop diversity

Reduced availability and access to NTFPs

Reduced water availability

• Diminished regulatory and habitat services

Reduced pollination and pest control

Reduced soil organic (carbon) content

Reduced soil micro fauna and flora

• Systems requiring more intensive inputs

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29


Ecological shifts


Shifts

30

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Comfort zones

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Comfort zones

Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation

32

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Species comfort zones

Ecosystem comfort zone:

The range of

precipitation or

temperature that was

experienced during 50%

of the baseline around

the mean.

ICEM 2012 33

Ecosystem comfort zones

Mid elevation dry

broadleaf forest -

Mondulkiri

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Baseline Wet Season(Jun-Nov)

CC Wet Season(Jun-Nov)

Baseline Dry Season (Dec - May)

CC Dry Season(Dec - May)

Da

ily m

axi

mu

m t

em

pe

ratu

re (

De

g C

)

Figure 5

C. Z.

C. Z.

CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS

ICEM 2012 34

Climate Change

Temperature

35

• Changes are greatest in wet season

– Wet season: 1.7 – 5.3 °C

– Dry Season: 1.5 – 3.5 °C

• Areas of greatest change:

– 3S catchments of eastern Cambodia

– Mekong Delta of Vietnam and Cambodia,

Climate Change

Rainfall

• Annual precipitation is projected to

increase by 3-18% (35 – 365mm)

throughout the basin

• Mostly due to increases in wet

season rainfall

• For the southern parts of the basin

increased seasonal variability in

rainfall

– wetter wet season, drier dry season

36

Elevation shifts

temperature & rainfall

• Temperature

comfort zones are

shifting up-hill

• Rainfall comfort

zones are shifting

down-hill

• Change in rainfall

is also increasing

with elevation

37 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Elev

ati

on

ba

sin

ave

rag

e p

reci

pit

ati

on

(mm

)

Elev

ati

on

Elevation Baseline average precipitation CC average precipitation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Elev

ati

on

ba

sin

ave

rag

e m

ax

tem

p (D

eg C

)

Elev

ati

on

Elevation Baseline max temp CC max temp

Hydro biological

seasons & flood pulse

• Wet season: start 1-2

weeks earlier and last 2-

4weeks longer

• Dry season: start 1-3 weeks

later and be 1-3weeks

shorter

• Transition to flood

(Season A): start <1 week

earlier and be 1-2 weeks

shorter

• Upstream Vientiane: Largest

delay in onset of the dry

season. & the largest

increase in flood season

duration

38

Climate Change

Hydrology

39 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jan Jan Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ave

rag

e d

aily

dis

cha

rge

(m3/s

)

KRATIE

PAKSE

MUKDAHAN

NAKHOM PHANOM

VIENTIANE

CHIANG SAEN

LUANG PRABANG

• Earlier onset of the flood season

• Increase in flood peak

• Long duration flood season

BASELINE CLIMATE CHANGE

• The variability of the Mekong flood pulse

will increase with climate change

• The increasing variability will be greater

downstream of Vientiane

Climate Change

Agricultural Drought

40

• Severe drought is centered on

NE Khorat Plateau

• Largest increases in drought

in Mekong floodplain in

Cambodia & southern Lao

PDR

Climate Change

average annual flooding

• s

41

• Mekong Delta

• Max. flood depth>1.0m increases

from45% to 57% of Delta (+650,000ha)

– mostly Bac Lieu, Ca Mau

• 1.0m Flood duration >4months will

expand to +75,000 ha- mostly Can Tho,

Vinh Long, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu

• Cambodian Floodplain

• Smaller changes in flood

depth/duration than in the Delta

• Most significant increase is in

extreme flood depths (>2.0m)

• Increased depth and duration of floods in the

Vietnamese Delta and Cambodian floodplains

CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT

HOT SPOTS

ICEM 2012 42

Hotspots identification % change in seasonal temperature and rainfall

for each area

Rank areas by maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall

Hotspot areas selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability

assessments

Rank provinces in terms of highest increase in flood duration

Focus adaptation efforts on

areas most exposed to

climate change threats

Integrate and orient study

analysis and findings

Provide a scientific basis for

the selection of focal areas

for Task 3

Areas ranked: ecozones,

provinces, catchments,

protected areas

Ranking by % average temperature

Change in wet season

PA name Country

1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam

2. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam

3. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam

4. Lomphat WS Cambodia

5. Chu Prong Vietnam

6. Dong Ampham Laos

7. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia

8. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia

9. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia

10. Ta Dung Vietnam

11. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia

12. SNUOL WS Cambodia

13. Mom Ray Vietnam

14. Nam Nung Vietnam

15. Phu Luang Laos

16. Phou Kateup Laos

17. Xe Sap Laos

18. Phou Kathong Laos

19. Xe Khampho Laos

20. Yok Don Vietnam

Ranking by % average temperature

Change in dry season

PA name Country

1. Bi Dup Nui Ba Vietnam

2. Phnom Prich WS Cambodia

3. SNUOL WS Cambodia

4. Kon Ka Kinh Vietnam

5. Phnom Nam Lyr WS Cambodia

6. Chu Yang Sin Vietnam

7. Nam Nung Vietnam

8. Ta Dung Vietnam

9. Mondulkiri BGCA Cambodia

10. Lomphat WS Cambodia

11. VIRACHEY NP Cambodia

12. Phu Luang Laos

13. Muong Phang Vietnam

14. Nam Ca Vietnam

15. Phou Kateup Laos

16. Dong Ampham Laos

17. Yok Don Vietnam

18. Xe Khampho Laos

19. Phou Kathong Laos

20. Tinh Doi Vietnam

To 20 PAs by climate

change threat

Priority provinces

IMPACT AND

VULNERABILITY

ICEM 2012 46

Gia Lai rainfed lowland rice baseline

Area planted =

47,000 ha

Yield = 3.4 t/ha

Production =

159,000 tonne

Agriculture

By 2050 rice yields in Gia Lai may reduce by 13%

• Baseline production = 159,000 tonne

• Decrease in production by 2050 = 20,000 tonne

Rice highly sensitive to:

• Temperature increase during anthesis

phase in dry season induces sterility

• Lower number of grains

• Increases in diurnal minimum

temperature reduces biomass

Agriculture

Robusta coffee

• Grown in Bolaven

plateau

• More recently grown

in the Vietnamese

Central Highlands

using groundwater

• High yields in

Central Highlands -

Gia Lai, Kon Tum

and Dak Lak

Agriculture

Current high yield and

production areas in Central

Highlands will decrease in

suitability e.g. In Dak Lak

5,000km2 will decrease in

suitability

Suitability will increase in

north of the basin – e.g.

2,500km2 in Chiang Mai and

Chiang Rai

Agriculture

Bos indicus raised primarily for

draught in rural areas throughout

the Basin

High density in Cambodian

floodplain

Livestock

Bos indicus stressed in

temperatures over 35 Deg C

Currently not stressed

anywhere in the basin

Livestock

Bos indicus comfort zone

will be exceeded in 30,100

km2 of Cambodia and

Thailand

Reduced ability to work,

negatively affecting

household livelihoods

through loss of draught

power for rent and reduced

support to subsistence

farming

Livestock

Capture Fisheries

• Changes in rainfall will increase river flows and strengthen the pulse effect which

will benefit many migratory white fish species.

• Others species adapted to particular habitats will be negatively impacted.

• E.g. minimum dry season water levels in the mainstream Mekong around

Vientiane, Luang Prabang and Chiang Sen are projected to increase by 30cm.

• This will result in important in-river habitats being submerged for longer periods

each dry season – eventually reducing the extent and productivity of this key

seasonal wetland habitat and its capacity to support specialist migratory fish.

Aquaculture

• Intensive aquaculture will come under pressure from climate change.

•E.g. Pangasius culture in Vietnam.

• Farmers have already pushed production levels of this fish, to the limit that the environment and their systems allow.

• Higher temperatures will place additional stress on the these systems, forcing farmers to reduce stocking densities and feeding rates further, resulting in lower production.

NTFP collection-resin tree

Natural systems

Resin Tree :

Dipterocarpus alatus

• Habitats : along riverbanks, bottom of ridges, swampy areas in dry

dipterocarp, dry evergreen, lower moist evergreen, semi-evergreen,

evergreen forests

• Flowering : March-May, Fruiting : April-June

• Resin collection : only in summer (April-May)

• Elevation range : 100-800 m asl

• Temperature range : optimal 22-32˚C, absolute 10-36˚C, can grow in

areas with max temperature up to 45 ˚C

• Rainfall range : optimal rainfall 3,500-4,500 mm/yr, absolute 3,000-

5,200 mm/yr, found in areas 1,000-2,000 mm/yr

Baseline vulnerability = Moderate CC vulnerability = High Vulnerable

Prediction: Climate change will significantly increase the vulnerability

Climate key threats increase in temperature enhances forest fire; forest fires kill seedlings and lower volume and

quality of resin/oil

extreme events (storms and high winds) kill seedlings and affect the trees which are

improperly tapped and hole maintained

extreme droughts enhance insect attacks (longhorn beetles) and also lower seed

germination rate

Trapaengs

Ecosystems

59

Impact on ecosystems:

drying out of trapaengs and other wetlands

during the dry season

Ecological shifts in the Mondulkiri PA cluster:

• Accelerating loss of populations & species (extreme

temperatures, coupled with drying - a significant

driver of biodiversity loss)

• New „problem‟ species entering communities

• Reorganisation of plant and animal communities

• Geographic range shifts eastward and some upwards

(?) and range losses

A transformation of the ecosystems

ICEM 2012 60

Ecosystem shifts

KEY BASIN WIDE

CONCLUSIONS ON

POTENTIAL IMPACTS 61

• Increase in temperatures will reduce yield

• Increase in temperatures will generate altitude shift

• Increasing rainfall will be beneficial to crops in dryer

areas but detrimental to crops in already wet areas

• Increased crop damage will be generated by

increasing extreme events (flood, flashfloods, storms

or dry spells )

• Climate change will increase food security risk in the

basin for subsistence and commercial systems

62

Agriculture

Key basin wide conclusions on potential impacts

• Nutritional problems will increase for low-input „local‟

breed systems reducing value

• Increase in risk of infectious disease affecting overall

productivity

• Temperature increases will increase costs of production,

in small/medium „commercial‟ systems, particular for high

performance breeds

• Climate change coupled with increasing grazing of

domestic animals in protected areas will increase

incidence of disease outbreaks in wild species

63


Livestock

Fisheries

64

• Under the projected climate change, the best we can hope for from Mekong capture fisheries is that current production levels will be maintained.

• The intensive lowland aquaculture systems will not be able to cope with the more extreme conditions, and will producing less.

• Although aquaculture will become more viable in new, higher elevation areas this is unlikely to compensate for the lost production from the lowlands.

• Total fish production in the Mekong basin is likely to decline over the next 30 years.

• With a regional population growth rate of around 1%, per capita fish consumption rates will also certainly fall

• Efforts must be made immediately to implement adaptation measures to offset the effects of climate change

Natural systems

• Climate change, in concert with other stresses will lead to losses

in productivity of NTFPs and loss of species from the basin and

specific areas.

• Similarly, losses in CWR species are likely from the basin

• Ecosystem shifts (transformations will occur throughout the

basin resulting in different species mixes and population

distributions.

• Some protected areas will degrade to the point of losing their

conservation value – others will change to the extent they no

longer represent critical habits

• If natural systems are not stressed or changed by human

activities, they can adapt naturally and shift in response to

climate change

65


Health and infrastructure

• Exposure of rural communities to water and vector

born diseases will increase, affecting isolated poor

most with limited access to health facilities.

• More intense and regular extreme flooding and

flashfloods will impact negatively on poorly designed

and maintained rural infrastructure

• The poor are most vulnerable. Groups whom are

marginally above the poverty line are also at risk of

losing livelihood assets through extreme events and,

consequently, falling back into poverty

66

ADAPTATION

ICEM 2012 67

Adaptation principles

1. Integrate adaptation across sectors

2. Address the adaptation deficit

3. Maintain and enhance diversity

4. Build on past adaptation

5. Avoid maladaptation

6. Adaptation as a cyclical and interactive

process

ICEM 2012 68

Adaptation – an integrated

approach

The aim – to increase resilience in vulnerable communities and

areas through packages of linked measures:

1. Engineering options (eg dykes, drainage systems)

2. Sector specific adaptation practices (eg design standards

for roads, crop diversification, new hybrids)

3. Natural systems management (eg rehabilitation,

enhancement and species conservation programs)

4. Land use planning (eg zoning and development controls)

5. Economic instruments (eg subsidies and tax incentives)

6. Traditional local strategies (eg seed storage and ponds)

7. Social responses (including resettlement and migration)

8. Institutional options: all require associated institutional and

administrative innovations 69

Sectors and local communities are already “adapting”

A region of climate extremes and variability

Adaptive management shaping farming practices and

to suit local conditions

Learning from past experience in each locality and

attempting to adjust livelihoods to cope with extremes

A continuing process of rebuilding, upgrades and

adjustment

BUT – a great backlog of basic development,

maintenance and repair needs

70

Adaptation deficit

71

72

Adaptation as a

cyclical and iterative

process: Don‟t have to do

everything at once

Set sharp priorities

Take a phased approach

Adapt now with future

stages in mind

Repair and adjust with

changing conditions

73

Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au

Technology

Mekong ARCC - ICEM Study Results Overview - Dr. Jeremy Carew-Reid