• Aggregated human role-playing behavior is more accurate than expert predictions

• Algorithms for Automated Trend Analysis – early warning

• Developing world moving online via portable computing at exponential rate

Humans are creative & open-ended

Harness the power-of-many for intelligence gathering, crisis analysis and forecasting

Access to critical understanding of a wider range of possibilities for int’l Crisis Analysis

MAIN ACHIEVEMENT:

• Automated Trend Analysis of accumulating data from ongoing concurrent simulator instantiations will identify micro-trends and highlight cause-and-effect conclusions for immediate and near-term crisis analysis

HOW IT WORKS:

• Role-playing world simulator – thousands of parallel instantiations (simulated environment but human partners & adversaries)

• Open ended – actions and actors are user extensible – no attempt to anticipate all possible actions and their consequences

• Automated Trend Analysis – ML algorithms pore over aggregated actions and commonly occurring actors to detect action consequences, likely reprisals & emergence of new politically significant actors

ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS:

• Initial scaffolding will be based on Open Source platforms

• Simulation ends when equilibrium reached (e.g. military defeat, commodity shortages & economic collapse, nuclear annihilation, genocide)

• Process and Machine Learning implementations will be separate from continuing advances in simulation interfaces and the spread of ubiquitous computing; over time volume and accuracy will increase

massively parallel, user-extensible

online scenario simulator and

automated trend analysis

Phase I / End-of Year 3 Goals

Release Beta environment for user-extensible massively parallel online simulator with self-perpetuating user-developed content.

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Learning from Massively Parallel Online Scenario Simulator

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Same Crisis/Multiple Instantiations

Identify Actor Emergence & Action Likelihood

• Build Models – models are closed

worlds, limited, rational

• Rely on experts – Susceptible to

biases and group think

• Result: Actor Changes Go

Undetected, Actions Forecast Poorly

Utilize Interface Advances • Better understanding of human terrain

• Influence adversaries to adopt peaceful

means

• Identify micros-trends and shifts in

national sentiment before they manifest

• 50% increase in forecasting accuracy

and action range for implemented crisis

arenas

25% Increase in Action Range / New Intel

50% Increase in Accuracy Vs. Models

Self-Sustaining/Less Setup for New Crisis