Learning's from Inter Solar 2010,Mumbai

Mehul Raval, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, India.

mehulmatrix@gmail.com

Opening Session• Prof Juzer Vasi(IITB) gave a speech on the Solar program in India.• 100K manpower generation by 2022 with 25K engineers & students. Prof Bansal(MNRE)

designs courses at Master level.• In Education & Training, Franchising and Certification to be taken up.• Mr V.S. Verma (CERC) gave a speech on the energy landscape in India.• 167KMW installed capacity in India with 90KMW coal-based.450million tones coal/annum

and 46 million tones deficit.16.5KMW through RE.• Increase in Super Critical Firing will increase η by 2-3% for coal-based systems.• Solar Thermal & PV can cater the peak demands and so storage in critical.• RPO and REC for 1 MW introduced.• Subsidies from govt help but not for long term.• Scientific price distribution among the components of PV system and ways to reduce the

prices and indigenize them is Important.• Prediction of Solar/Wind energy based on weather forecasting. In conventional system

these are based on 15mins intervals. Power generation should be within 70% of the prediction.

• Reliability to also to be incorporated e.g. in an emergency, instrumentation & control or disconnecting from grid is imp.

• Mr Deepak Gupta (Secretary, MNRE) gave a speech on RE landscape in India. 2002- 2% growth rate of RE, last 2 years- 27%.

• Cost Reduction and Grid Parity are the main aim of JNNSM.• 184MW selected of which most are of Solar PV.• 8 projects for 15MW installed in last year of which 4.8MW in Jodhpur and 4 &

3MW in Karnataka.• 400 million homes no light, Program for 20 million. 30 pilot projects for mini-

grids in collaboration with Norway government.• Diesel in Industry and Telecom towers to be replaced with Solar PV.• Decrease of billion liters of diesel consumption in last 5 years.• Next yr- 300MW Solar PV with only domestic cells and modules.• IIT, Jodhpur to become a center for Solar Thermal and IIT Kanpur keen on

NCPRE like interests.• Solar Insolation monitoring to be done by CVAD.

Panel Discussion- What is the real potential of PV in India?-Challenges,

Opportunities.• Panelists: Debhasish Mazumdar(CMD, IREDA), H Bajaj(CEA, Former Chairman NTPC),

Indrapreet Wadhwa(CEO,Azure Power), Mohan Bhan(Vice President,Moser Baer), Petra Bahns (CFO,Ecolutions) & Rabi Sathpathy(President,Reliance Solar).

• Current Installation < 50MWp and to be 400 times by 2022.• Germany 1/10th of size and ½ population will have 3 times the growth i.e. around

6GW/year and current installation around 8GW.• Vast Thorium resources and good growth rate for NE. 2.75 Rs/unit from Kalpakkam

plant.• Affordability is imp- 400 million people no light.• Henry Ford had a margin of $3 initially and so cost is important.• 500MW is the manufacturing capacity and the cost decreases as capacity increases.• Illusion of 20GW: 1) 30-40 billion $ investment needed-Slow and not prepared. 2)

Installed capacity of only 40-500MW. 3) Affordable cost compared to living stds needed.

• Need for Solar Autonomy- 13 clearances for plant , 2 from Pollution Board. Lot of Paper work.

• Swift Response for implementation of policies with ability to address the issues coming along.

• Incentives for early completion of projects like penalty for delays.• 70% of modules exported from India.• Coal-power: 2.5 to 3.5 Rs/unit and 4-5 Rs in 5-10 years.• Finance in India @ 12% rates compared to 6-8% in Europe.• 5 types of Risks in PV- Project Risk, Finance,etc.

On-Grid PV Market in India• Mr Popali (Director, IREDA)- 17 states announced tarriffs and 7 states

announced RPOs. Starts from 11Rs/unit.• 11-18 Rs /unit rate for Solar PV.• RoofTop 67 projects: 77.8MW + 22 2MW.(14-18 Rs/unit).• 9-16Cr/MW Capital Cost, IMD-Solar radiation monitoring.

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase3

On-Grid 1K-2KMW 4K-10KMW

20KMW

Off-Grid 200M 1KMW 2KMW

Manufacturing

4K-5KMW

Lighting 20 million

RPO .25% 3%

• Phase 1- 500MW(5MW plants,100MW smaller plants), 500MW CSP(5-100MW).

• State RPO will affect NSM.• Price and Quantity need to be fixed.• China & Taiwan account for 50% of PV cell production and mostly

exported.• 40% houses in India have no light, schools w/o electricity- 8.2 lakhs,

villages- 95K.• 17GW RE in India, 159GW installed in 09-10 and 11% from RE.CAGR of

33%. • Gujarat- 961MW of projects allocated, Rajasthan- 540MW approved.• PV capacity of 800MWp, 66% exported and 64% to Germany.• Module 4.5GW and Cells- 2GW target of JNNSM.• Indian Power deficit of 10-12%(10-12GW).

Mini Grid/Micro Financing in India• Mayank Sekharia(Co-Founder,Green Light Planet)- 1.6 billion no elec in

world and market of $5 billion/ yr and increasing.• 2k-5k & 5k -1K income group i.e. below taluka level imp for the PV based

products.• Affordability + Accessibility + Liquidity ↓ ↓ ↓• Low Price Awareness Purchase v/s Rental• Long Lasting Proximity Full Payment + EMI• High Utility Permanence• Being local for Maintenance imp.• Bad exp with lantern will make 90% to not buy a new one.• Michelsen(AEP,Auroville)- Cost of Installation: 3K-10K$/family, Elec cost-

0.7-1$/unit, storage cost: 60-75%.• Hybrid System: 0.3-0.4$/unit, 60-80% generation by diesel genset.• High η LEDs @ 100lm/W.• Lead batteries good on large scale but problems on smaller scales.• Lead/Ni/Lithium based have weight, energy & density advantages.

• LiFePo- 200 charge/discharge cycles most promising.• LiMg/Co explosion chances during overcharging.• Wh/kg:Li-Co highest and Li-Po good enough, Lead acid-lowest.• For portable, lithium huge wt advantage.• Flat charging curve allows passive charging control for LiFePo4.• Christian Brillinger(MD, Phocos India Solar)- Micro Finance Service for

Low Income Clients. 120 Million clients for MF in India. SHG/Grameen Model- Joint Liability.

• India from 27million Rs to 250 million Rs MF, but interest rates very high.• 15% rates not viable, penalties should be charged – Muhammad Yunus:

Creating a world w/o poverty-Social Business & Future of Capitalism.• Arun Aravamudan(Sr. Technical Manager,SELCO)- 120K households

installed with 90% financed. REEP partner for exploring financing models.• Matching payment to cash flow imp.• Migrants are high risk borrowers & low chances.• Margin Money needed is 10-20%.• For remote areas, the transaction costs increase for bank and Selco.• Solar portion can be financed and working capital needs to be addressed.

SHG and JLG-who will spend?

• Collection on daily basis viable and less stressful for low income groups. Eg Malleshram market area for lighting solutions.

• Finance Philosophy- Pool of soft money.• For Migrants- Deposit given by Selco.• Margin Money deposit given by Selco. Same for Enterprenuers and

Awareness funds.• JNNSM, unrealistic costs of small systems. Fixed systems, no innovation

and mandatory 20% margin money.

c-Si-Innovative Prospects• George Hanna(Head of Sales India, Bosch Solar)-c-Si and µ-morph based

technology.• Top 10 PV Markets: Italy, China, Spain, South Korea, Japan, US, France, Germany.• Highest Irradiation Level- India, SA, China.• 460GW of installed PV by 2030.• Challenges in India-High Irradiation, High Temp, Long Coastline: Humidity & Salty.• Price Sensitive Market but performance warranty needed.• Which technology suitable for specific application? How to achieve quality @

reasonable rates?• Simulation Model:1) Variation of Intensity, 2) Temp-dependent efficiency, 3) Spec

Sensitivity of modules, 4) Staebler-Wronski Effect for thin films based PV.• 2% drop in η for c-Si module from Stuttgart to Ahmadabad. Almost same for µ-

morph.• 10% more power generation from µ-morph tech in India from Germany and so more

revenue!• Ref Projects- Jaipur,Bangalore,Coimbatore.40KWp each with c-Si,CIGS,a-Si and µ-

morph 10KWp each.

• For MW range projects: c-Si BOS & TF BOS: 40-42% & 40%.c-Si modules costlier by 40%.Overall TF is cheaper by 7-8% than c-Si.

• For kW range projects: BOS of c-Si is 45% and for TF is 31%. TF is less expensive by 3-4%.

• BOS costs need to decrease.• For no restrictions on area, TF has better yield and lower cost. F or area restricted

c-Si better.• Arun Ramakrishnan (Manager Market & Technology Research,CentroTherm)-EU

70% Installation, 20% production , Asia 12% and 75%.Growth Rate 67% in 2010.In Nov 08, the cost of production in EU was 3Euros/Wp and less then 3 Euros in China. In Oct 10 it was 1.7 and 1.3 Euros respectively.

• Integration of poly-Si production and production line will result in a benefit of 4%. Single & Integrated: 0.9 & 0.86 Euros/Wp. PolySi- capacity to be more than 2.5K Tones.

• Si utilization around 5.5 gms/Wp and cost to be 0.63 Euros/W by 2013.• New metallization techniques to target 19.5% by 2013 and cost of 0.7 Euros/Wp.• 12% Rates and no cheap electricity issues lead to low Poly Si production in India.• Gaetan Borgers (Asia Vice President,Dow Corning)-Module and material cost is

63% and 16% labor. Choice of material reduces other costs.• Good Material Supplier- Committed to Solar, Offers reliable supply, Proven

Innovation(R&D at industrial level).

• PV -6100 Encapsulant Series Silicone vs EVA- 2% Improvement. Silicone absorbs more light of shorter wavelength.

• BP Solar 95% of Original PR in 2008 after 24 years with product similar to Silicone.

Thin Film PV- Innovative Prospects• Nirav Vora(Post Doctoral Researcher,NREL)- Global share of 17% in 2009.

62% in US.• First Solar(CdTe) 1.4 GW Capacity and 2.7GW in 2012. Module η 7.5% in

2005 and 11.3% in 2010, 14% in 2015(projected). Recycling Insurance Plan also in place. 80MW installed in Onterio.

• Other CdTe companies are Abound Solar and PrimeSolar(GE).• Solyndra(CIGS) has 300MW capacity. UniSolar on Flexible

substrates(100MW in 2010).• Sharp µ-morph tech with 10% η.• TF Tech generates upto 20% more electricity than c-Si at same cost.• Issues with a-Si: Low efficiency, LID, Uniformity and Deposition rates.• Kesterites Solar Cells: IBM made 9.6% η cells and 6.8% with thermal

evaporation. The material in abundant and so a viable option in future.• 60 TF companies in US and First Solar the leader.• TF Market Share projected at 20% by 2015.

Large PV Scale Systems• Indrapreet Wadhwa(CEO, Azure Power)-Base Deficit of power 10% and Peak

Deficit 16%.• By 2015, Solar PV cost < Diesel, 2020 < Retail, 2025< Grid.• 2MW-Awan Punjab and 5MW-Gujarat.• Expression of Interest imp and grass-root education needed at nodal level.• Options for Investment- Equity and Debt- 30:70. Equity-PE,Infra, Development &

Tax Funds., 100% FDI allowed.• Finance options limited in India.• For Design Grid-level solar radiation data missing.• Local EPC expertise limited in small-scale/rural solar lighting system. Rigorous

training needed.• Broadband wireless monitoring feasible.• Grid stability at capacities > 33KW important.• Rabi Satapathy(President,Reliance Solar)- 5MWp power plant in Jodhpur, largest

project till date in India. Also 100 SBI ATMs are solar powered.• Tilt- 6°, c-Si, Invr- 11kVA(432 nos, 98%)Construction time- 6months, Annual

generation of 7.5 million units.• Gang Operation to turn off at night.CUF 9.4% in 4 months. Generated power, Amb

Temp, Module Temp and Iradiation vs time taken.

• Rajesh Bhat(President,Juwi India Renewable Energies)-c-Si-:4-5 acres, CdTe:6-7 acres, a-Si:7-8 acres.

• PVSYST for performance yield monitoring.• 53MWp- 70K First Solar Modules in Liebrose Germany in 6 months.• Solairdirect,France –Installation in CapeTown,SA of 360MWp. 2K installations

completed.• FITs in France- 0.314 Euors/KWh and 0.54 Euors/KWh for BIPV.• Land Size for 12 MW 24 Hectares, Max distance from site is around 10km.6

months for 12MW installation.19K modules of 230Wp(Yingli).• Mr Thomas Bickl(Director New Business Development,Shuco)-Largest TF a-Si/µ

morph production of 150MW.a-Si- shorter wavelengths & µ morph for longer wavelengths.

• Yield: a-Si> µ morph> c-Si.• For 5KWp @ 70°C, a-Si: 4.53KWp, c-Si: 4.03Kwp, µ morph: 4.33Kwp.• 8.3% > than poly in Singapore.• LCOE = Total Life Cycle Cost/Total LifeTime(excluding production cost).

PV Project Development• IEC 61701 Salt Mist Corrosion Test for Modules.• Mr Padmanaban(Director & CEO,Arbutus Consultants)- Studies 3

projects: 1) a-Si 1MW- Chandrapur, 2) c-Si 3MW-Asansol and 3) c-Si 3MW-Kolar.

• Variability data for Chandrapur: 28% for Solar Insolation, 48% for SI + MT + Wind and 52% with addition of RH and AP.-ve coeff with AP & wind, +ve with RH.

• Variability data for Kolar: 94% with Solar Insolation, 98% with SI + MT + Wind.