LATIN AMERICA Regional outlook 2013

LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL OUTLOOK 2013

Alvaro Uribe Vélez

Issues to be addressed

1. The current context of Emerging Markets and

the evolution of Latin America 1980-2012

2. Latin America between two policy paths

3. The policy challenges in the region

4. Lessons from the Colombian Experience

1. The current context of Emerging Markets and

the evolution of Latin America 1980-2012

1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the

evolution of Latin America 1980-2012

During the last three decades developing countries have experienced a profound transformation driven by two

components:

On the one hand a rapid demographic transition. Since 1980 the World population has increased by 2.5 billion people and 95

percent of that growth has taken place in the developing World

The other element has been a dynamic period of sustainable economic growth. In

1980 developing economies represented 33 percent of the World GDP and today that

number is closed to 46 percent

Emerging economies have become engines of economic growth



By 2050 19 of the top 30 economies by GDP will be countries that we currently

describe as ‘emerging’

China and India will be the largest and third-largest economies in the world

Eight countries – India, China, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia,

Korea, Mexico and Turkey –will be responsible for most of

global growth up to 2025

Emerging economies will account for 68% of global

growth by 2030

In 1980, 5% of goods were sourced globally. By 2000, this was 20%. By 2025, it will be

50%

In 1980, world exports accounted for one-sixth of global GDP. Today it is a

quarter. By 2030, it will have risen to a third

By 2030 the urban middle class will rise to 42% of the

global population. The number of people with daily income of

$10 to $100 a day will rise from 1.8 billion today to 4.9

billion by 2030



According to FAO: Demand for food could increase 50%

by 2030

Demand for water has been projected to rise by 30% between 2000 and 2030

The International Energy Agency has said energy

needs will grow by 40% by 2030

According to BP China represents 20.3% of the

World Energy Consumption (The world largest energy consumer in 2010 for the first time

over the U.S.)

Natural Gas consumption has experience its

strongest consumption rate since 1984 (7.4%)

Coal share in world energy consumption has reached its highest level since 1970 (29.6%). China represents

49% of the world coal consumption

In 2010 Global Biofuel consumption grew by

13.4%



How does Latin America fit in

this panorama? Between 1980

and today some changes have

occurred…

The inflation tragedy is over: in 1985 regional inflation

average was 159%, today is below 6%. This means that

fiscal and monetary prudence have become policy principles

Debt is no longer a threat: Debt to GDP ratios in the region have

passed from 40% in 2002 to 20.4% in 2011

Between 2003 and 2007 the region experienced a growth average of 5%...the highest since 1967-1974

Democracy has expanded in the region with few exceptions…

Regional exports have increased 160% between

2002 and 2011

In 2011 the region faced a record number in FDI reaching almost 160

US$billion



Population

Close to 600 million people

Average age between 24 and

28

Per Capita Income in PPP

close to US$10.000

Poverty reduction

64% of our population is a expanding middle class

During the last decade 40 million people have left the poverty line

Life expectancy has increased from 65 to 75 years

Child mortality has been reduced by 50 per cent

Literacy rates are above 94%

Mobile phone penetration has increased by 78 per cent

Internet access has increased by 33%

Healthcare coverage has increased by 50 percent

water and sanitation coverage has reached 80%

Commodities in time of Demand

10 percent of the World oil reserves

6 percent of the World Gas reserves

Almost 50 percent of the World cooper

reserves 50 per cent of the

World silver reserves

13% of the World iron reserves

26% of the World fertile land

24% of the World beef supply

Bio Reserves

20 per cent of the World Biodiversity is concentrated in the Amazon ring

Almost 50% of the World potable water supply

57% of the world primary forest

Policy Changes match four range of opportunities



Policies have been the root of Latin American Changes

The change process and the potential for the years ahead has

happen by accident and it is a consequence of the consistency, congruence and sense of urgency

that a group of countries have adopted as their policy cornerstone

Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Uruguay represent 70

per cent of the region’s population and 75% of the

regional GDP

This group of countries have common characteristics that

explain their outstanding performance

The strengthening of Liberal Democracy

The adoption of an institutional

Framework in favor of foreign and national

investment

The construction of a sound and sustainable

social safety net

The expansion of export markets and the

commercial integration with the World (FTA’s)

A public administration driven by results

A sound Macroeconomic

Administration driven by fiscal and

monetary prudence

Better regulatory environment

Construction of strategic

infrastructure

The consolidation of an innovation agenda

leaded by an improvement in

education

A well capitalized financial sector and

the constant expansion of financial

services

Today countries like Panama, Dominican

Republic, Costa Rica, Salvador, Guatemala,

Honduras, Belize, Paraguay, as well as most of the Caribbean States, are following that line of

behavior

Building Modern Democracies

(5 parameters)

Security

Freedoms and Private Initiative

Independent Institutions

Social Cohesion

People Participation

A dynamic Economic

transformation

Investment Target Policies

Maintaining Fiscal and Monetary transformation

Integrate commodity and knowledge based

economies

Expand export markets

Create an Entrepreneurship culture

(Innovation agenda)

Closing Social Gaps

Improve education (quality, coverage,

vocational)

Insure Universal Healthcare

Formal Job creation

Access to Finance

Climate Change, Environment and Energy

Sustainability

Expand renewable sources

Install an energy efficiency conscience

Improve waste management

Protect the Amazon Ring

Reduce Co2 Emissions



Despite the changes that have been achieved some important challenges

remain…



The regional current Political Map is a “Tale of two cities” like the Charles Dickens Book… (The

ALBA and the non Alba Model)

ALBA (Leaders: Venezuela,

Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba)

Anti-U.S

Anti-Free Trade

Lack of investment Confidence

Weak institutions

Political Insecurity

Ideology driven countries

Political Polarization

Modern Democratic Center Countries (Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile, México, Uruguay, Paraguay, Panamá, Republic

Dominican, Costa Rica, etc)

Cooperation with the U.S.

Pro Free Trade

Investment Confidence

Independent Institutions

Political Stability

State Long Term Policies and Mgt by Results

Organized Party Systems

The Democratic Center takes the lead: • Investment grade countries are in this Group: Mexico,

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Panama

• Countries with more market access through FTA’S are

in this group

• Countries with more FDI are in this group

• Countries with more Middle Class Expansion are in

this group

• Better fiscally sustainable social programs: Chile,

Mexico, Brasil and Colombia

Only the group of Countries in the Democratic Center

will become the regional active participants of the

Emerging Markets Boom…some of the ALBA

Members will see some benefits, but without solid

long term development agendas, they will face

transitory profits…

Venezuela

Inflation

Reduction in oil production

Brain drain

Social conflict

Insecurity

Private initiative in Jeopardy

Bolivia

Loss of citizen support

Quality of live deterioration

Lack of private initiative

Loss in private investment

Ecuador

Press Liberties in danger

Lack of long term private investment

Political stability at the expense of higher

tensions

Oil driven political power

Nicaragua

Institutional deterioration (Reelection without

constitutional authority)

Corruption

Private initiative: Uncertainty

Shameful Chavistas


Bad policies are deteriorating the political and economic context in the ALBA

Countries….

3. The economic outlook and the

policy challenges in the region

3. The 2013 economic outlook

After decelerating for two consecutive years, Latin

American economies accelerated growth again at

the end of 2012. Brazil’s recovery was an engine of

performance

The region’s growth averaged around 3.2% in

2012 after 4.3% in 2011 and 6% in 2010

Latin America will approach its potential rate in 2013,

remaining the world's second best performing

region after Asia

Chile reported lower annual growth, although the

economy reaccelerated to rates higher than its long-

term trend because of expansionary monetary

conditions

Colombia’s growth was below government

expectations reaching a 4.0% level

Due to the political transition, which generates temporary contractions the Mexican

economy began decelerating in the second half of the year

Brazil became the main contributor to Latin

America’s growth reduction in the past two years

Inflation was maintained on target with the excepctions of Mexico and Brazil, that

experienced marginal increases

The 2012 experience….


Argentina

The country will face risks in 2013, although growth will improve in

comparison with 2012

Uncertainty will increase

Inflation will be around 25%

Public expenditure will be the driver of economic growth

Central Bank will continue to be the main source of funding for the Central

Government

Economy will grow 3.4% in 2013

Brazil

The economy experienced a small scale recovery at the end of 2012

The recovery will strengthen in 2013, boosted by investment for the 2014 World Cup, as well as the fiscal and monetary

stimulus package in place

The economy will grow 5% in 2013

Chile

Monetary conditions need to be stabilized before excess demand threatens

economic stability

Growth in 2013 will be around 4.3%

Inflation will remain on target

Source: World Bank


Mexico

The deceleration initiated at the end of 2012 will extend over the first half of 2013, as a change in political

administration usually introduces a delay in the federal budget and private decisions on investment

The economy will grow only 3.5% in 2013 after 3.8% in 2012

Inflation is rising

Monetary tightening could affect growth performance

Great expectations are based on the new government reform agenda

Peru

The best performer with strong fundamentals and a well managed mining boom

Growth will reach 5.8% in 2013

Inflation will be between 1% and 3%

Venezuela

The fiscal deficit in 2012 reached troublesome levels, that will require cuts in 2013

Growth will be around 1.5% and 2%

Declines in the oil price could trigger a recession

Inflation will reach 30%

Source: World Bank

2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f

Financial Flows

Capital Inflows 179.6 328.5 303.9 322.4 326.2 327.1 342.3

Private inflows, net 161.6 306.1 299.1 320.5 327.1 327.8 344.7

Equity Inflows, net 126.5 166.6 165.6 179.5 198.0 200.8 214.5

FDI inflows 84.9 125.3 158.3 167.3 182.4 176.3 184.2

Portfolio equity inflows 41.6 41.3 7.4 12.2 15.6 24.5 30.3

Private creditors, net 35.1 139.5 133.4 141.0 129.1 127.0 130.2

Bonds 45.9 72.9 85.2 95.1 72.2 57.7 60.2

Banks -1.7 21.7 51.7 41.4 42.7 45.2 51.4

Short-term debt flows -8.6 43.8 -3.0 4.3 12.7 23.4 16.5

Other private -0.5 1.1 -0.4 0.2 1.5 0.7 2.1

Offical inflows, net 18.0 22.5 4.8 1.9 -0.9 -0.7 -2.4

World Bank 6.6 8.3 -2.9 0.4 .. .. ..

IMF 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 .. .. ..

Other official 11.0 12.9 7.5 1.4 .. .. ..

3. The 2013 outlook

Regional Financial Flows

Peru

Humala Challenges

Maintain the highest

economic growth rate in

the region

Improve social expenditure

targeting

Improve Labor markets

• Combat informality

• Improve productivity

Continue with International insertion

• Implement the FTA with USA

• Pacific Agenda with Colombia, Chile and Mexico.

Challenges

Fiscal and Monetary Credibility

Institutional quality

Capacity to generate

confidence

Solve Public-Private

Conflicts

Lack of FDI long

term trust

Argentina

Security

Human Insecurity

Legal Insecurity

Political insecurity

Individual Liberties

Property rights at risk

Limit freedom of expression

Limit freedom of press

Independent institutions

Courts controlled by the Executive

Branch

Independent institutions are controlled by the Executive

father

One Party controls the Parliament

Citizen participation

Limited

Controlled

Instruments vital for political

pressure

Social Cohesion

Class polarization

Fiscal policy is unsustainable

Venezuela

ChallengesRegional integration

Urban security

Drug consumption

Cost of money

Infrastructure

Weak Doing Business Indicators

Foreign Policy

Brazil

The Challenges of Doing Business in

Brazil

Area: 8,514,877 sq km

Population: 203,429,773 (July 2011 est.)

GDP: $2.172 trillion (2010 est.)

GDP Composition by Sector:

Services: 67.4% (2010 est.)

Industry: 26.8%

Agriculture: 5.8%

Unemployment Rate: 6.7% (2010 est.)

Exports: $201.9 billion (2010 est.)

Export Commodities: Transport

equipment, iron ore, soybeans,

footwear, coffee, autos

Export Partners: China 12.5%, US

10.5%, Argentina 8.4%, Netherlands

5.4%, Germany 4.1% (2009)

Imports: $181.7 billion (2010 est.)

Import Commodities: machinery,

electrical and transport equipment,

chemical products, oil, automotive

parts, electronics

Import Partners: US 16.1%, China

12.6%, Argentina 8.8%, Germany 7.7%,

Japan 4.3% (2009)

Good results but there are some worriying “TO DO BUSINESS” indicators

Country DB 2011 DB 2010

Mexico 35 41

Peru 36 46

Colombia 39 38

Chile 43 53

Argentina 115 113

Uruguay 124 122

Ecuador 130 127

Brazil 127 124

Venezuela 172 170

Doing

Business 2011

shows some

elementes that

affect Brazil as

a destiny for

investments

(127 out of 180

in the Doing

Business

Report)

1. Bureaucracy

2. Weak Infrastructure

3. Weak Technology

4. Preference to Local Companies

5. Complex tax system

The Challenges of Doing Business in

Brazil

Brazil in comparison to the Region best and worst

performers

Indicator Brazil Chile Mexico Colombia Peru Venezuela

Starting a Business

(Proceadures)15 8 6 9 6 17

Starting a Business

(Days)120 22 9 14 27 141

Days for

Construction

Permits

411 155 105 50 188 395

Hours devoted to

pay taxes (Hours

per year)

2.600 316 404 208 380 864

Days to enforce a

contract616 480 415 1346 428 510

Enforcing Contracts

(Cost % Claim)16.5 28.6 32 47.9 35.7 43.7

Cost to export US$

per ContainerUS$

1.730

US$74

5

US$1.42

0

US$1.77

0

US$860 US$2.59

0

Brazil Infrastructure

challenges

Brazil’s infrastructure ranks

74th out of 133 countries,

even though its overall

economy ranks 56th,

according to a World

Economic Forum (WEF)

survey that asked firms to

rank global

competitiveness. Among

the BRIC economies,

Brazil’s infrastructure ranks

similar to India’s (76) and

Russia’s (71), but it lags

China’s (46). Within Latin

America, Brazil’s

infrastructure ranking is

near Mexico’s (69) and is

significantly better than

Venezuela’s (106), but it is

Infrastructure spending in Brazil has been in a

declining trend over the past 40 years,

averaging 5.4% of GDP during the 1970s, 3.6%

in the 1980s, 2.3% in the 1990s, and 2.1% in

the 2000s. Some studies suggest

infrastructure investment of 2.0% of GDP is

needed simply to sustain the current

infrastructure stock in Brazil

Brazil must invest 4% of GDP (doubling its

current investment) for 20 years to catch up

with Chile, the benchmark in Latin America,

according to our estimates

To catch up with South Korea — the

benchmark in Asia — Brazil would need to

invest 6–8% of GDP per year

Source Morgan Stanley

Brazil Infrastructure

challenges

Challenges for

infrastructure development

Improving the business environment. Brazil needs a more

stable and credible regulatory environment The main issues are:

1) regulatory bottlenecks, 2) excessive renegotiations of

concessions, and 3) the lack of efficiency of regulatory agencies

Rethinking fiscal priorities. The government needs to redesign spending strategies and rethink priorities by 1) addressing budget rigidities, 2) reducing mandatory earmarking in the budget, and 3) revisiting structural entitlements (i.e., social

security reform)

Reforming the tax system. The government intake is close to 40% of GDP, while companies

spend on average 2,500 hours per year to

prepare, file, and pay their taxes

Reform the Police Structure

Citizen participation in the fight against

organized crime

Strengthen intelligence

Border affairs

• Drug Consumption

• Assault Weapons

The security challenge

Mexico

Chile

Two situations

Characteristics

Economic Stability

Political Stability

Investor Confidence

Innovation and entrepreneurshi

p agenda

Quality of live and

opportunities

Youth distrust in Political

Parties and in Government

Aggressive protests

Dependant on the China effect

Ecuador

The political condition

Economic

4.5% Fiscal deficit

Oil price has been the driving force

Investors distrust

4.5% inflation

Political

The President has concentrated more powers

Since reelection and Chavez death Correa has been moving to

a moderate attitude

There is not a clear opposition figure

Urban security has been deteriorating

Bolivia: new problems arise

Economic

Populism platform loosing popular support

Fiscal superavit driven by more tax collections

Economic Growth above 4.6% driven by Gas price

Inflation close to 9%

Investors distrust with the exception of foreign governments

corporations

Political

2/3 of Congress controlled by the President Coalition

Hunting of all opposition leaders

Confrontation with Santa Cruz Governor Ruben Costas

Next week 56 Supreme Court Judges will be elected

International

Under the influence of Chavez

Improvement in the dialogue with the U.S.

International Market Distrust

Country Homicides

per 100K

Hab

Violence cost as %

of GDP (Live years

lost due to

handicapped

circumstances)

Private sector losses

due to insecurity (%

sales)

Violence costs

as % of GDP

Number of

gang

members

Number of

gangs

Honduras 43 1,31% 4.5% 9.6% 36.000 112

Guatemala 45 1.43% 3.9% 7.7% 14.000 434

El

Salvador

58 1.99% 4.5% 10% 10.500 4

Nicaragua 14 0.96% 3.1% 10% 4.500 268

Costa Rica 8 0.58% 3.6% 2.660 6

Panamá 11 0.63% 2.5% 1.385 94

Central America: The security Drama

Violence and organized crime

Not the same stories

A region of different development stories

The 7 giants (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru

and Uruguay)

a) 70 of the Region population.

b) 85% of the Region GDP

c) Poverty reduction

d) High levels of investment

e) Commercial integration

f) Institutional stability

Central America

a) 3% of the Region GDP (US$163 Billion)

b) 7% of the Region population (43 million)

c) Income inequality

d) Moderate investment levels

e) Low tax collections

f) Fragile energy matrix

Caribbean

a) 4% of the Region Population

b) 2% of the Region GDP

c) Tourism dependence

d) Natural disaster risks

e) Low industrial base

f) Need for long term access to markets

The China effect…

Country China

Ranking as

a trading

partner

Porcentage

of total

exports

2011

Brazil 1 15%

Mexico 4 2.2%

Colombia 3 6.2%

Chile 1 16%

Peru 2 16%

Venezuela 2 7.9%

China’s influence as a trading

partner will continue to

increase, thus strenghthening

its political and diplomatic

relations with the regional

key players…

China is the destination for 10% of LatAm exports today, and is the

largest trade partner for Brazil and Chile. LatAm was also the largest

recipient of announced Chinese outbound investment in 2010, focused

on energy and mining

U.S-Latin America relations The evolution of U.S Latin America Relations…from Doctrines to specific

policies…Doctrines

Monroe Doctrine

Teddy Roosevelt “BIG STICK”

Howard Taft “Pan-American Union”

FDR “Good Neighbor”

Ike Pan American Operation

Alliance for Progress

Carter “Human Rights Agenda”

Reagan Regional Cold War

Bush “War on Drugs” and trade

Clinton “NAFTA” & “FTAA”

Objectives

Protect the region from foreign invasions and strengthen the U.S influence in the hemisphere

Exercise strategic control of the region applying hard power (Military interventions in Nicaragua, DR, Haiti, etc)

Build and institutional and permanent diplomatic coordination under the U.S Leadership

Regional support for World War II and coordination to face the Great Depression

Improve development assistance to prevent social turmoil (Creation of the IDB)

Improve development assistance to prevent the communist expansion.

Promote Human Rights policies to confront the emerging power of dictatorships in the region

Intervention in Nicaragua, Grenada and Panama

Fight against Drug Cartels in the region concentrated in Colombia, promotion of NAFTA and Unilateral Trade Preference Act

Enactment of NAFTA, promotion of the FTAA (1993) and the Andean Trade Preference Drug Enforcement Act

Policies

Bush Vs Obama and the FTA’s… (Next slide)

U.S-Latin America relations

Two administrations and its strategic approaches…

Bush:

1. FTA’s with Chile, Colombia, Peru,

Panama, CAFTA, DR

2. Actively supported the fight

against terrorism in Colombia

3. Promoted the Democratic Charter

in the OAS (Signed in Lima

September 11 2001)

4. Politicaly confronted anti-

democratic regimes in the region

5. Stablished the Millenium

Corporation.

6. Debt Relief for Bolivia, Nicaragua,

Honduras, Haity and Guyana

Obama:

1. FTA’s with Colombia and

Panama took almost 3 years to

be ratified.

2. Actively supported the fight

against terrorism in Colombia

3. Political diplomacy with anti-

democratic regimes in the

region.

4. Timid speech against Drug

Cartels in the region

5. Cautious attitude towards the

security crisis in Mexico and

the U.S share of responsibility

4. Lessons from the Colombian

Experience

Security

28.837 homicides

2.882 kidnappings

69 homicides per 100.000 habitants

1.645 terrorist attacks

350 mayors out of their municipalities

158 municipalities without police

Economy

Average Economic Growth 1994-2001: 2.1%

GDP per Capita: US$2.377

Investment as % of GDP: 16.5%

Exports: US$11.975 million

FDI: US$2.100 million

Inflation: 6.99%

Fiscal balance: -3.2%

Social

Unemployment: 16.2%

Health Coverage: 25 million Colombians

Pension affiliates: 4.5 million

Poverty: 57%

Education Coverage: Primary 97%, High school: 57%, University: 24%

Mobil Phone Lines: 4.6 million

Internet coverage: 1.9 million

Ten years ago Colombia was a fragile state…

The Colombian Paradox: a long and stable democracy in a permanent

threat from terrorist groups, drug dealers and organized crime…

Colombia faced a Confidence Deficit

The elusive quest for peace

Many governments exhausted all their political capital

attempting to reach peace through political dialogue…the

result was military strengthening from illegal armed groups and a rapid

growth in their criminal activities (68% thought the

country was going in a negative track)

Terrorist Groups (Guerrillas and Paramilitaries) had

created a sense of defeat in the Colombian people

Fear impacted in the Colombian people Mindset

The lack of investment

The drain of human capital

The sense of danger in Colombian roads

The expansion of massive kidnappings created an emotional domino effect

Building Confidence became our

priority

We introduced a comprehensive policy

framework…

Social Cohesion

Investment with

fraternity

Democratic Security

Confidence

Security as a Democratic Value

Security for all

Confront all criminal

organizations

Security without

martial law

Security with freedoms and human rights

protection

Security in coordination

with the people

Investment Target

Security:

Human

Legal

Political

Sound Macroeconomics

Incentives

Access to markets

Competitiveness factors:

• Infrastructure

• Regulation

• Connectivity

• Logistical chain

Social Cohesion

Highest quality in education

Universal healthcare

Access to Finance

Stable Jobs and

entrepreneurial spirit

Connectivity

Our policy achievements generated a turning

point

Indicator 2002 2010

Homicides 28.838 7.400

Kidnappings 2.882 123

Homicides per

100K Habitants

69 16.3

Terrorist

attacks

1.645 250

Municipalities

without

mayors

presence

350 0

Municipalities

without police

158 0

Indicator 2002 2010

Average

Economic

Growth

2.1% 4.3%

GDP per

Capita

2.377 5.300

Invest %

GDP

16.5% 24.6%

Exports US$

11.000

US$

39.000

FDI US$

2.100

US$ 7.000

Inflation 6.9% 2.5%

Indicator 2002 2010

Unemployment 16.2% 11.6%

Health

Coverage

25.1 million 43.1

million

Pension

affiliates

4.5 million 7.1

million

Poverty 57% 38%

Education

coverage (Primary, Hs,

University)

97%

57%

24%

100%

79.4%

35.5%

Mobile phone

users

4.6 million

lines

41

million

lines

• Reached the highest economic growth in

more than 20 years

• The largest education, health and

connectivity coverage in its history

• The largest poverty reduction in Colombian

history

• The biggest FDI rates in history

• The lowest violence records in 30 years

• Expanded the middle class

• Highest exports in Colombian

History

• Paramilitary groups dismantled

• FARC structure severely

dismantled

• Per Capita income more than

doubled

Colombia’s current

challenges

Security

Maintain Macro-Vision and Micro-Management

Continue dismantling all terrorist organizations

Continue dismantling drug cartels apparatus

Strengthen Citizen Security agendas with local

authorities

Economic

Face new trends of currency appreciation

Maintain and increase FDI flows (Security, incentives

and stability rules)

Fiscal Policy to face new countercyclical challenges

Increase tax collections

Expand new trade markets through FTA’s

Social Cohesion

Fight labor informality and create quality jobs

Insure education and health quality

Expand vocational training coverage

Create Entrepreneurial Family Transfers program

Political

Judicial reform

Strengthen Democratic Center

Improve local institutional capacity

New law implementation (Victims and land)

Prevent the emergence of populist movements

Peace talks in Colombia

1. Defining peace: Colombian National Seal has two important concepts: Liberty

and Order

A peaceful country requires the right exercise of individual liberties and a general environment of institutional and social order

In 2002 Colombia lacked both Concepts: 28.000 homicides

2800 Kidnappings

1645 terrorist attacks

350 Municipalities without majors

Our Democratic Security Policy was built to restore institutional order and protect the exercise of individual liberties. It was a policy for peace not a policy for war. The great evidence is that by 2010 homicides were reduced 50%, kidnappings 80% and terrorist attacks by 90%


2. Our Democratic Security Policy was based on Strong Hand and Big Heart We conceived Universal Demobilization for all members of illegal

armed groups

We confronted all illegal armed groups with the same determination and open the door for peace processes. Under clear conditions defined in the Peace, Truth and Reparation Law

The peace process with AUC was based on: Cease of illegal activities

International verification (OAS)

Incarceration

Anyone who did not cooperate or continued with illegal activities will lose the privileges and be extradited if any extradition request existed

No eligibility for those accused for crimes against humanity or crimes different than political delinquent practices

Peace talks with FARC

Prevent Big Failures today:

Negotiation without seizure of criminal activities

Negotiating Policy with weapons on the table clearly affects Colombian Democratic Values

Allowing political participation to individuals responsible for crimes against humanity is a wrong message for our democracy

No imprisonment

Allowing dictatorial regimes that affect liberties and support FARC, as guarantors is a bad signal


The trust agenda with FARC The Government has consistently leaded an agenda to build

negotiation mode with FARC. The agenda includes: Tolerance with the Chavez regime (calling him a cause of

regional stability and dropping our denouncements at the OAS)

Drop of the US-Colombia military cooperation agreement

Declaring an armed conflict in Colombia

Passing a victim legislation that not only equals military officers with terrorists but also bails out by the state the reparation responsibility from FARC and other groups

Land Reform

Peace Framework Constitutional Amendment

Drug legalization proposal

Including Cuba in the Summit of the Americas

Abandoning any ideological or political link with the platform from our administration


The Peace process that I would support:

What Colombia thinks

68% of Colombians are not willing to pardon crimes committed by

terrorist organizations

78% of Colombians are against no prison sanctions for terrorists

72% of Colombians are against political participation by terrorist

groups

My opinions

No impunity for crimes against humanity

Justice, peace and reparation

Immediate release of kidnapped people

Unilateral cease of criminal activities

My opinions

International verification of disarmament

No policy agenda on the table

Reinsertion agenda

WWW.ALVAROURIBEVELEZ.

COM

2013

Presentations & Public Speaking

LATIN AMERICA Regional outlook 2013