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Many wind turbine operators that own GE 1.5MW turbines are considering to either uprate (using e.g. GE PowerUp) or derate their GE turbine fleet. Unfortunately, the impact on reliability, especially on the gearbox, through uprating or derating is unknown using standard industry techniques. This results in uncertainties that do not allow the operators to estimate the financial impact of uprating or derating correctly.
Citation preview
Investigating the Impact of Uprating
or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
Science
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Sentient Science is Based on Three Fundamental Capabilities
11/19/2014
We are the leader in model-based
prognostics
Model-based, multi-physics based
prognostics computational
technologies and services
Our applications help extend the
remaining useful life (RUL) of new
and existing mechanical systems
We reduce friction and improve
performance of bearings, gears,
drivetrains and mechanical systems
We are a “killer” application for the
Industrial Internet
The newest prognostics health
management (PHM) application for
condition-based maintenance (CBM)
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Sentient Science Family
11/19/2014
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Objectives
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
Total Costs
Income
Profit
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
Total Costs
Income
Profit
Simplified financial calculation example
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Up/Down-rating options
Change control logic
(e.g. pitch control)
Vortex generators
Different blade sizes
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
1) What is the current baseline
reliability?
2) How does re-rating affect the current
reliability?
3) How does re-rating affect the current
Profit/ROI?
Questions
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 20 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
Simplified financial calculation example
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
DigitalClone®
Nucleation and Propagation Model
11/19/2014
Fully Operational Failure
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 201411/19/2014
Fully Operational FailureFully Operational FailureFully Operational Failure
DigitalClone Live®
for Wind Turbines
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Wind Loads
Wind
Shear
Avg. Wind SpeedTurbulence
Intensity
(source: Erich Hau, “Windkraftanlagen”, Springer Verlag, 1988)
SCADA
supervisory control
and data acquisition
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Dynamic Wind Analysis
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Wind Loads
Standard
Uprating to 1.56MW( - 6-8 month)
Vortex Generator( - 1-2 month)0
5
10
15
5
45
85
12
5
16
5
20
5
24
5
28
5
32
5
36
5
40
5
44
5
48
5
52
5
56
5
60
5
64
5
68
5
72
5
76
5
80
5
84
5
88
5
% o
f to
tal tim
e
Torque in kNm
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
GE 1.5 MW SLE
11/19/2014
Winergy 4410-2
Example Weibull distribution
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Clipper C-96
11/19/2014
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Multi-scale ApproachSystem
LevelComponent
Level
Microstructure
Level
• Operation
Conditions
• Reaction forces
• Displacements
• Vibration
• Local elastic-
plastic
deformation
• Contact
pressure
• Micro-level
stress
• Crack initiation
• Probabilistic
fatigue life
prediction
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Fleet/Site Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Asset Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
System Level Reports
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Conclusion
• Many owners and operations are uprating their GE 1.5 to generate
more energy
• DigitalClone calculates the remaining useful life of the GE 1.5
gearbox and components when uprating to understand impacts
• There are optimal control and O&M strategies that can be
implemented for the GE 1.5 to get the highest overall ROI
• Simulation scenarios also include RUL calculations for up tower
parts replacement scenarios
Investigating the Impact of Uprating or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
November 12th, 2014
Investigating the Impact of Uprating
or Derating for the GE 1.5 MW
Science
