Demonstration on How to Extend the Life a 1.5MW Class Gearbox

DigitalClone Live® Demonstration of a 1.5MW Class Gearbox Including Life

Extension Options

Edward Wagner Chief Digital [email protected]

Presenter

DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

What If You Had More Time?



Sentient Science Funded $25M to by Worlds Largest Operator

Uniquely built with operators – Trusted 3rd Party

New Prognostic Solution to Predict Failures• Prognostics vs. Diagnostics • Data Model versus Material Science Model - Compatible• Calculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends

Options to Extend Life. • Simulates “what if” scenarios to optimize performance. • Enables efficient Asset Management.• Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing


DigtialClone Live Technical Approach


What Process does DigitalClone Replace?

• Create a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific component under sensitivity studies

• Build a digital model and then run simulations• Manage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictions• Software

VS.

Prognostics Diagnostics

NO CAPEX / $31,000 in

development costs

$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000in development costs



Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics

What is the Business Problem to Solve?

What Would Could You Do With the Extra Time?

Diagnostics

1. Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (“what’s not on your watch list?”)

2. List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement – critical component(s) list, new lifing predictions post replacement and ROI

3. List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI

4. Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX5. Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM

stored in Maximo/SAP6. 5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate

spend per site

Business Benefit – More Time



Raja V. Pulikollu, PhD Director, Implementations & Chief Materials

Scientist

1.5 MW Gearbox Prognostic Model


• Turbine operational data, BOM, geometry, and oil properties were used to develop individual gearbox prognostic model

• MBD system model was created in Modelica that translates forces from the hub to the individual components

• Wind loads are being applied on DigitalClone MBD system model to calculate global forces and life on individual components

System Model

Multi-body Dynamics (MBD)

GBX Loads and Life

Forces and Moments

Component Loads and

Life


1.5 MW Fleet Failure Rate PredictionsSupplier Differentiation

Supplier 1Supplier 2Supplier 3Supplier 4

5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years

• Sentient Science applied our DigitalClone® prognostic modeling to 1.5 MW gearboxes

• DigitalClone predicts an increase in O&M costs in the next 6 years

• Operators can take actions to reduce this O&M cost increase with dynamic models to enable turbine life extension from:

• Optimizing Uptower Component Replacements

• Gearbox Upgrades and Operational Changes (Lubricants, Derate/Uprate)

• Major Component Long Lead Time Planning

• Scheduled versus Unscheduled Maintenance

• Evaluate New Gearbox and Components Life Extension before Procurement

1.5 MW Gearbox Critical Components List


• The prognostic model showed most of the 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox failures are due to bearings:

• Planetary bearings• Low Speed Intermediate Shaft (LSIS) bearings• High Speed Shaft (HSS) bearings

• Secondary damage due to misalignment and bearing pitting/spalling are:

• Planetary Gear/Sun Gear• Low Speed Shaft and Intermediate Gear• High Speed Shaft (HSS) Pinion and Intermediate Speed Shaft• Ring Gear

Gear teeth loss

Forces on Example Case Planet Carrier Bearing

Bearing Play

• DigitalClone provides list of turbines and critical components for uptower replacement to extend gearbox life

• Predicts post replacement gearbox life and ROI

• Assists with replacement planning by ranking the turbines based on most critical to least critical

Up-tower Component Replacement


Life Extension OptionsDerating Specific to Turbine Health State


• Bearing damage (macro pitting / spalling)• Bill of Materials (BOM), pictures & inspection records provided by

operator• Sentient recommended 20% De-rate (1.2 MW limit) with 2-3 month

follow up• RUL of 9 months at this recommendation Vs. Original RUL of 1 month• Follow-up inspection performed – no damage progression after 3

months!


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100012001400160018002000

Gear Max. Fillet Stress (MPa) Vs. Curtailment (MW)Radial Clearance = 6mmRadial Clearance = 3mmRadial Clearance = 0

Curtailment (MW)

Max

. Fill

et S

tres

s (M

Pa)

Radial Clearance = 1.5mm

Endurance Limit, >10 years (90% confidence bounds)

At no derate, the gearbox health will continue to degrade and may lead to catastrophic gear tooth loss due to bearing play (radial clearance of 1.5 mm)

Based on the full gearbox analysis, it is recommended to derate turbine to 1.2 MW’s to avoid catastrophic failure

Life Extension OptionsDerating Specific to Turbine Health State

1.51.21.00.750

Healthy GBX

Damaged GBX

Case Study (Uprating) – Failure Rate ↑4% / AEP ↑2%


Real AEP2%AEP -- ↑2%Fail Rate -- --NCF 36.1% 38.8%20 Yr IRR 11.79% 12.14%Annual DSCR 1.45 1.47NPV (Life) ($653k) $436k

A modest 2% increase in AEP with right technology fixes site performance


Case Study (Uprating) -Failure Rate ↑40% / AEP ↑5%

Real AEP5%AEP -- ↑5%

Fail Rate -- ↑40%

NCF 36.1% 39.9%

20 Yr IRR 11.79% 11.80%

Annual DSCR 1.45 1.44

NPV (Life) ($653k) ($628k)

Overrating can cause little or no financial benefit

1.5 MW Main Bearing Life ExtensionSensitivity Analysis


• DigitalClone recommends Superfinish and better oil to improve Main Bearing fatigue performance

• Duty cycle predictions indicate that L10 fatigue life will improve to 10 yrs. by changing to better oil, and to 13.7 yrs. by implementing superfinish

3 Parameter Weibull Reliability Analysis

L10 Life L15 Life L17 Life

Conservative Case

Best Case

Conservative Case

Best Case

Conservative Case

Best Case

Baseline 7.6 yrs. >20 yrs. 15.5 yrs. >20 yrs >20 yrs >20 yrs

Super Bearing 18.4 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs.

Overall, L10 fatigue life improved by a factor of 2.42 for Sentient recommended bearing configuration

Fleet Life Assessment

“As Is” BOM and loading Per Asset

DigitalClone Asset RUL and Life Extension

Options Per Asset“As Is” BOM and loading Per Asset“As Is” BOM and

loading Per Asset“As Is” BOM and loading Per Asset

Asset RUL and Life Extension

Options Per Asset


Options Per Asset


Options Per Asset

• Maximo/SAP integration

• GBX/OEM partnerships

• Libraries

• Scalable HPC Cloud• Scalable simulators • UI by fleet, site, asset

• Work-order systems integration

• Inventory management integration (SAP)

• Fleet optimization


DigitalClone Live UI


Site 1

Site 2

Site 3

Site 4

Site 5

Site 6

Site 7

Site 8

Fleet 1

Fleet Worst to Best GBX Ranking


Fleet 1

Site 2

Site 3

Site 4

Site 5

Site 6

Site 7

Site 8

Site 1

Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking


Site 1

Site 2

Fleet 1

Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking


Site 1

Site 2

Site 3

Site 4Site 5

Individual GBX BOM Report (from “Maximo)


Site 1

Site 2

Fleet 1

Note: Clipper GBX Example

GBX System Level Powerflow (DigitalClone System/Modelica)


GBX Subcomponent Assessment


Note: Clipper GBX Example

Subcomponent Performance Report


System ROI and Trade-off Studies


Boroscope/Diagnostic Feedback to Update Model and Predictions


Fleet-wide Life Extension Recommendations


Note: C

lipper GB

X E

xample

Challenge: • Broadwind was seeking to quantify the effect of DriveMAX

enhancements on a European single stage planetary design gearbox to help their customers calculate the value of ROI

Solution:• Broadwind and Sentient Science developed DigitalClone

prognostics models of the planetary stage to determine the effect on gearbox life due to DriveMAX® modifications under the same severe Class 1 site operating conditions

1.5 MW Models Available for SuppliersBroadwind Case Study



Results: • Early failure were

predicted on the sun gear and planetary bearing

• The DriveMax® upgrades were shown to improve the sun gear by a factor of 3x and improve the planetary bearing life by a factor of 1.65x

1.5 MW Models Available for SuppliersBroadwind Case Study

Challenge• AeroTorque was seeking to evaluate life

extension due to reducing overload and torque events and preventing a white etch area formation in a bearing

Solution• AeroTorque chose DigitalClone modeling

to evaluate the impact of torque control on 1) turbine hard stop events on gearbox bearing loads and 2) bearing fatigue performance with and without white etch area in the material microstructure

Results• Asymmetric Torque Control was shown

to reduce peak stresses in bearing by 10%. As a result, life extension improved by up to factor of 2x when the WEA formation was avoided


Stress (S) – Life (N) curve for Downwind CRB

1.5 MW Models Available for SuppliersAerotorque Case Study


DigitalClone Live Integrated into a Smart GridO&M Optimization (cut O&M 5% - Revenue increase 4%)Using Sentient DigitalClone models

• Inspections• Budgets – monthly to 20

year • Optimized duty cycle• Oil & bearing

management• Maintenance schedules

Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization (Build data at lower cost and time)

• Big Data Analytics• Maximo• SAP

Fleet Process Optimization: ($10K reduction per asset)

• CBM-PHM –Industrial Internet investment Cap-ex reduction

• Sensor reduction• Decision Data at lowest

cost• People optimization• Asset Acquisition Support• M&A Support• Refinancing Support

O&M Aftermarket Life Extension –& Super Components Decisions (O&M reductions of 10% - revenue increase 6%)

OEM/Supplier SaaSTest & Compare:• Upgrades• Repair, Reman,

Replace• Contract negotation


DigitalClone Live for Apache ASTRO Demonstrator


Product Design Example: Boeing Next Generation Apache Drive

Systems

Load Case

Weibull, Life/Eta

Weibull, Slope

300 HP Run-out Run-out

1021 HP 5.14E+07 1.72

1379 HP 1.26E+07 3.32

2042 HP 7.49E+06 3.84

1731 HP 2.97E+06 4.28

Thank you!


Engineering

Demonstration on How to Extend the Life a 1.5MW Class Gearbox