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International initiatives by non-state actors: closing the gap?
Karlien Wouters
05/10/2015
VVM – The road to Paris – Part I
© ECOFYS | |
Introduction
> Pledges made by central governments are not sufficient to limit global
warming to 2°C
> The emissions gap between national pledges and a 2°C compatible pathway
is 8-10 GtCO2e in 2020 (UNEP Gap report)
> International cooperative initiatives (ICIs) have been growing in the last few
years as an attempt of non-state actors to address climate change
> These initiatives are driven by other actors than Parties to the UNFCCC:
cities, regions, companies, NGOs, etc.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters2
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Example initiative 1: WWF Climate Savers
> Aim: encouraging businesses to become low-carbon leaders and agents of
change in their fields
> Members: 28 large, often global, companies from a variety of sectors
> The initiative helps companies to set, implement and achieve ambitious
targets
> Companies are required to include not only their own operational emissions,
but also other indirect emissions resulting from outsourced activities or
downstream products in their targets
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters3
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Example initiative 2: en.lighten
> Public-private partnership (PPP) between the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and the companies OSRAM and Philips Lighting, with
support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
> Aim: Support participating countries in the transition to energy efficient
lighting
> Mission: Phase out inefficient lamps by 2016
> The initiative provides a strong network for policy support and advice,
knowledge and best practice sharing
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters4
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Example initiative 3: Cement Sustainability Initiative
> Promotes sustainable development in the cement industry
> The initiative provides a strong network for sharing knowledge and best
practices
> Members cover 30% of the world’s cement production
> Members are required to set targets for CO2 emission intensity of cement
production within their own operations
– 11 out of 25 member companies have set targets
– Other members are in the process of setting targets
> The measurement, reporting and verification (MVR) process includes regular
and independent auditing of company targets and progress
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In total >180 international cooperative initiatives
identified
> Most initiatives in the areas: energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport
and agriculture
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What is the impact of these initiatives in 2020?
Criteria for inclusion in quantitative assessment:
> Initiative driven by others than central governments
– But these still may be involved
> Concrete mitigation action or targets
– Not necessarily the same for all participants
– In some cases the focus is on action, not targets
> Capacity to deliver
> Minimum size of expected impact (50MtCO2e)
> 15 initiatives selected based on those criteria,
focusing on cities, regions, companies and sectors
> Focus of the quantitative assessment is on 2020
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters7
Full report
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Emission reduction impact of these initiatives in 2020
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters8
Combined impact = 2.9 GtCO2e (uncertainty range 2.5-3.3 GtCO2e)
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Overlap with national pledges
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters9
Total emission
reduction potential
(17 GtCO2e)
Impact of
current
policies
(4 GtCO2e)
Impact of non-state action
(3 GtCO2e)
Overlap between pledges
and non-state action
(0.2-0.7 GtCO2e)
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Significant impact, but not enough to bridge the gap?
Higher emission reductions in 2020 are possible
> This analysis is a snapshot of the 15 selected initiatives
> Impact of UN Climate Summit 2014 initiatives?
> Raising ambition and upscaling of initiatives is possible
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters10
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Increasing the impact of initiatives
Ecofys and CISL evaluated 5 private sector
initiatives, using three scenarios
> Current target scenario
Current targets continued up to 2020
> Scale-up scenario
All members follow the example of leading
members or modest increase of membership
> Available potential
Similar actions by the entire sector
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters11
Full report
© ECOFYS | | 05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters12
1,000
1,300
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
Currently, only 11 CSI members out
of 25 have adopted emissions
intensity targets of around 600
kgCO2e/t cement by 2020. This
results in avoided emissions up to
100 MtCO2e/yr by 2020.
CSI
Members currently deliver 100 MtCO2 e/yr by 2020.
This can be scaled to 160 MtCO2 e/yr.
© ECOFYS | |
Members currently deliver 100 MtCO2 e/yr by 2020.
This can be scaled to 160 MtCO2 e/yr.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters13
1,000
1,300
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
This assumes that the remaining
CSI members adopt the same level
of ambition. This would deliver up
to 160 MtCO2e/yr of avoided
emissions by 2020.
CSI
CSI
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Available Potential: Including entire cement sector with a
specific focus on Chinese companies could deliver up to
540 MtCO2 e/yr by 2020.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters14
1,000
1,300
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
CSI
CSI
Applying similar targets across the
whole cement sector would result in
avoided emissions of up to 540
MtCO2e/yr by 2020. A large
portion of the avoided emissions in
this scenario could be achieved by
specifically focusing on setting CSI
intensity targets in the Chinese
cement sector.
© ECOFYS | |
This PPP is delivering 60 MtCO2e/yr emissions savings
by 2020 and can be scaled to 80 MtCO2e/yr.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters15
1,000
1,300
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
En.lighten has 73 member
countries under the current target
scenario. 39 of these countries
have committed themselves to ban
the sale of inefficient lighting before
2020. Taken together, this market
transition could result in an
estimated 60 MtCO2e/yr in
avoided emissions by 2020.
En
© ECOFYS | |
This PPP is delivering 60 MtCO2e/yr emissions savings
by 2020 and can be scaled to 80 MtCO2e/yr.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters16
1,000
1,300
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
En
The most ambitious members, 23
of them, will ban incandescent
lighting by 2016. Under the Scale
Up scenario it is assumed that all
73 members adopt 2016 as target
year for the ban, resulting in
avoided emissions of around 80
MtCO2e/yr in 2020.
En
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1,000
1,300
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
En
If the whole world were to follow
the 2016 commitment (ca. 120
additional countries) to ban
inefficient lighting, the potential
avoided emissions would be as high
as 640 MtCO2e/yr by 2020, with
340 MtCO2e/yr coming from
developing countries.
Available Potential: if the world would phase out incandescents avoided emissions of 640 MtCO2/yr could be achieved.
En
En
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Members are currently delivering 32 MtCO2e/yr in
emission reductions, this could be doubled to 60
MtCO2e/yr if scaled.
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1,000
1,300
En
En
En
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
CS
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
The initiative’s 28 members have
committed to emission reduction
targets of between 15-40% of
emission reductions in their supply
chains and operations. This results
in overall avoided emissions up to
32 MtCO2e/yr by 2020.
© ECOFYS | |
Members are currently delivering 32 MtCO2e/yr in
emission reductions, this could be doubled to 60
MtCO2e/yr if scaled.
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters19
1,000
1,300
En
En
En
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
CS
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
The initiative’s 28 members have
committed to emission reduction
targets of between 15-40% of
emission reductions in their supply
chains and operations. This results
in overall avoided emissions up to
32 MtCO2e/yr by 2020.
CS
If 28 additional companies would
join the initiative, membership
would double. With similarly
ambitious emission reduction
targets for these members, the
initiative could increase its impact
in 2020 to around 60 MtCO2e/yr.
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1,000
1,300
CSEn
En
En
CSI
CSI
CSI
Upper range of MtCO2-eq mitigated by 2020
100
200
300
400
500
600
650
CS
Current Targetscenario
Scale-upscenario
Available Potential
Finally, if the average emission
reduction targets were to be
applied to all industry sector peers
of Climate Saver companies the
avoided emissions could be raised
up to 1,300 MtCO2e/yr by 2020.
CS
The available potential lies at nearly 1,300
MtCO2e/yr if industry peers would follow suit.
© ECOFYS | |
Action plan to increase the impact of initiatives, based on
lessons learned from case studies
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters21
> Cooperative initiatives should:
– Set clear goals
– Monitor action
– Increase ambition
– Increase membership
– Collaborate across sectors
– Communicate
> Stakeholders should support initiatives by:
– Including cooperative initiatives in climate strategies
– Supporting them to increase impact
– Creating open support structures
© ECOFYS | |
Conclusions
> Impact of 15 selected initiatives from cities, regions, companies and sectors
is 2.9 GtCO2e in 2020
(uncertainty range 2.5–3.3 GtCO2e)
> Overlap with government pledges is less than 1 GtCO2e
(impact of pledges 5–7 GtCO2e, UNEP Gap report)
> Raising ambition and upscaling of initiatives is needed and possible
> Next step: including non-state initiatives in international negotiations?
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters22
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you!
Karlien Wouters
Ecofys
05/10/2015 Karlien Wouters23
