HAZARD RISK1. Assess the relationships between degree of risk, probability of hazard event occurring, predicted losses and level of preparedness2. Fill out the white cells in the table below with case-studies/examples. Example: Industrial leak in LEDC = high risk + low probability

Acceptance

“Hazards are natural events, “acts of God”, happen

randomly.We can only hope we’ll be

able to respond efficiently if they happen”

Domination

“Hazards are extreme events, predictable and their

magnitude can be forecast through scientific research.

Their impact can be controlled”

Adaptation

“Hazards are influenced by both natural and human

factors, their magnitude can be guessed based on

experience, we must adjust to them flexibly”

TYPES OF PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARDS

San Francisco (1989)

Finland (2011)

Texas (2011)

Japan (2011)

State and explain your own perception of those risks

FACTORS INCREASING RISK PERCEPTION FACTORS DECREASING RISK PERCEPTION

Involuntary hazard Voluntary “chosen” hazard

Immediate impact Delayed impact

Direct impact Indirect impact

Fear of impact Lack of fear of impact

High fatalities Low fatalities

Fatalities peaked (time/space) Fatalities spread out (time/space)

“Personal” victims “Impersonal” victims (statistics)

Process not understood Process understood

Uncontrollable hazard Controllable hazard

Unfamiliar hazard Familiar hazard

Lack of trust in authority (government, scientists) Trust in authority (government, scientists)

High media attention Low media attention

FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION

Find examples for each factor

Earthquake Prediction

Tsunami Prediction

Which regions are more/less protected?

Hazard Hazard prediction methods

EARTHQUAKES • Some, but not all faults are mapped and monitored• Foreshocks can be detected by seismographs• Magnetometers can detect changes in magnetic field• Lasers or sensors can monitor small movements along a fault• Predictive factors: increase of radon in groundwater, unusual animal behavior• Warning systems via cell phones or sirens if a shock wave is coming (S-wave travels at about 3-5 km/s)

TSUNAMIS • Pacific Warning System established in the Pacific ocean in 1948 (Hawaii) linked to seismographs, tidal stations• DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) uses buoys linked to sea bed receptors and

satellites to monitor unusual ocean movements• Warning is about 1hr per 1,000 km from epicenter (10hrs between Japan and California)• Cost of fake warning is about $30M

TROPICAL CYCLONES

• Known “Hurricane season” (July to October in Northern hemisphere)• National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, FL• Monitoring of wind patterns in the ITCZ between 5° and 30° latitude (satellite, weather balloons, reinforced

weather airplanes) input in computer models at NHC• Geostationary satellite monitoring of storm path over warm waters vs land• Link between monitoring and vulnerability of at-risk population• Accurate warnings rarely issued until 12-20 hours before landfall• Risk of too many wrong warnings: complacency, economic cost, panic

DROUGHTS • Monitoring of weather patterns (ex: ENSO)• Monitoring of rainfall and water reservoir levels• Monitoring of crop failures or vegetation behavior• Monitoring of food distribution system to detect shortages before they happen

PREDICTION OF HAZARD EVENTS

Using named examples, evaluate the following hazard prediction methods