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Part III: Tools for Risk Assessment
RADIUS Tool- Simple Damage Estimation Software -
Dr. Carlos Villacis
Software Purposes• To facilitate preliminary estimation of
earthquake damage in developing countries
• To be used by city administrators and general public, not for professional purposes
• To assist in decision making
• To raise awareness of
earthquake risk
Software CharacteristicsGoal: To make it as useful and accesible as possible
• Widely available platform (runs on MS-Excel)
• Simple, user-friendly– Help Function/User Instructions are included– Narrated Demonstration Video is included
• NOT a GIS(Geographic Information System) type of program– A GIS Sample is added for comparison (GIS is a very useful risk-
assessment tool)
Input Data
Program uses commonly available city information
• Shape of target region (entered as a grid)• Population and its distribution• Building Inventory and its distribution• Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions) • Lifelines information• Choice of Scenario Earthquake and its parameters
Output
• Ground Shaking Distribution (PGA or MMI Intensity)
• Building damage
• Lifelines damage
• Human Impact (number of deaths and injuries)
• Summary Tables and Thematic Maps showing the results
Example of Data Input Process• Shape of target region input as a grid
Example for Kobe city
Example of Data Input Process• Specify the City Area using Excel Mesh• Input Total Population and Building Counts
Example of Data Input Process• Input Area ID and Area Name
Example of Data Input ProcessSpecify the Mesh Weight (building, population distribution)
Example of Data Input Process• Input Mesh Weight to distribute the building and
population count
Example of Data Input Process• Specify Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions)
Example of Data Input Process• Input Local Soil Characteristics
Example of Data Input Process• Specify Building Inventory by Area• Percentage of 10 Building Classes in each Area
Example of Data Input Process• Input Building Inventory by Area• Buildings and Population are distributed by Mesh Weight
Example of Data Input Process• Specify and Enter Scenario Earthquake
Output Examples• Building Damage Distribution
Tool Applications
• Understanding of cities’ earthquake risks • Estimation of impact of past well-known
earthquakes• Estimation of impact of any number of
possible future earthquakes• Delineation of planning policies by decision
makers• Education and risk awareness of the public
Incorporating DRM in Urban Planning
Tijuana
Antofagasta
Katmandú
Dehradun
Working with local organizations
Training to Kathmandu City officers
Public seminar in Antofagasta to discuss project findings
Working session with Tijuana planners
Results
2003 2007
2012 2022
Developing solutions…
2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 6 6 7 7
1 1 1 1 1 6 6 7 7 7
1 1 1 7 7 7 8
1 1 7 8 8 8
8 8 9
9 9
9
9
CRÍTICO
ALTA MEDIA BAJA LEVEL RISK - Antofagasta -Chile
Tangible Products
Seismic scenarios
Development plans
Local Capacity Building
Tangible Products
Mitigation Options
Mitigation Option 4
Mitigation Option 3
Mitigation Option 2
Mitigation Option 1
Risk Reduction Potential
30% 60% 90%
Cost= $
Cost= $$$
Cost= $$
Cost= $$
Tangible Products
Reducción de Riesgo
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Años
Mile
s d
e P
ers
on
as e
n R
iesg
o
a
b
c
d
e
Curve e = Investing $15 Mill. in 25 years
Investing to reduce Tijuana’s risk
END
Thank you for your Attention.