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Content: - The German Power System - History of phase-out decisions - Electricity Prices - Import Export Effects
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Germany’s nuclear phase-out
Charlotte Loreck
Energy and Climate DivisionÖko-Institut e.V.
Berlin
Content
• The German Power System• History of phase-out decisions• Electricity Prices• Import Export Effects
2
Hard coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
23,7%
18,7%
13,6%
22,6%
16,5%Renewables
Gross electricity production in Germany
2010: 621 TWh
Source: AG Energiebilanzen; own figure
Oil, Others
Consumption: 604 TWhExport: 17 TWh
Lignite
3
First phase-out deal
Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)1998
20002002 Atomic Energy Act
History of nuclear phase-out
phase-out deal (15 June 2000)
History of nuclear phase-out
1 Jan. 2000
2670 TWh 2623 TWh !
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
ObrigheimStadeBiblis ANeckarwestheim 1Biblis BBrunsbüttelIsar 1UnterweserPhilippsburg 1GrafenrheinfeldKrümmelGundremmingen BPhilippsburg 2GrohndeGundremmingen CBrokdorfIsar 2EmslandNeckarwestheim 2
Ist-Daten Projektion
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2002
6
History of nuclear phase-out
First phase-out deal
Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)1998
20002002 Atomic Energy Act
2009
2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats)
Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsion
+ 8 years for 7 oldest plants+ 14 years for 10 least old plants
History of nuclear phase-out
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
ObrigheimStadeBiblis ANeckarwestheim 1Biblis BBrunsbüttelIsar 1UnterweserPhilippsburg 1GrafenrheinfeldKrümmelGundremmingen BPhilippsburg 2GrohndeGundremmingen CBrokdorfIsar 2EmslandNeckarwestheim 2
Ist-Daten Projektion
8
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2010 with life time extension
History of nuclear phase-out
9
First phase-out deal
Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)1998
20002002 Atomic Energy Act
2009
2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats)
Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsion
History of nuclear phase-out
Mar. 2011 Moratorium: 8 nuclear power plants shut down immediately for 3 months
Jun. 2011 Atomic Energy Act: phase-out
10Source: http://de.wikiactu.com/
History of nuclear phase-out
Atomic Energy Act 2011:
8 plants stay off,
9 running until 2015 - 2022
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
Ist-Daten Projektion ObrigheimStadeBiblis ANeckarwestheim 1Biblis BBrunsbüttelIsar 1UnterweserPhilippsburg 1GrafenrheinfeldKrümmelGundremmingen BPhilippsburg 2GrohndeGundremmingen CBrokdorfIsar 2EmslandNeckarwestheim 2
11
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2011
History of nuclear phase-out
Possible quick substitutions for nuclear power plants
8,7 GW2,5 GW
2 GW
2,8 GW
5 GW
21 GW21 GW
5 GW
20,5 GW (17 plants)
operating capacity
moth-balled
capacity
DSM capacitiy under
construction (net)
additionalcapacity
(RES & gas)
nuclearcapacity
12
Effect on electricity prices
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
€/M
Wh
LaufwasserPVWindBiomasseKernenergieBraunkohleSteinkohleErdgasHeizöl
Merit order
Capacity (GW)
demand
LaufwasserPVWindBiomasseKernenergieBraunkohleSteinkohleErdgasHeizöl
WaterPhotovoltaicsWindBiomassNuclearLignite Hard coalNatural gasOil
price
14
Observed effects on electricity prices - short term
Data: EEX; own figure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80€/
MW
h
Phelix Future Peak 2012
Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q2
Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q3
Phelix Future Base 2012
Phelix Future Base 2011-Q2
Phelix Future Base 2011-Q3
15
Source: EEX
Observed effects on electricity prices - long term
16
(Nuclear) imports?
17
18Source: BDEW
Typical load flow situation
19Source: BDEW
Daily net physical load flows Germany – neighbours Spring 2011
20
‐2000
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE
GWh
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
‐2000
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE
GWh
123456789101112
2011
2010
Data: Entso-e, own figure
Monthly net physical load flows Germany – neighbours
Traded flowsCzech Republic - Germany
Source: BNetzA, Auswirkungen des Kernkraftwerk-Moratoriums, 26.Mai 2011 21
Net physical load flowsCzech Republic - Germany
-2.000
-1.500
-1.000
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
0 168
336
504
672
840
1008
1176
1344
1512
1680
1848
2016
2184
2352
2520
2688
2856
3024
3192
3360
3528
3696
3864
4032
4200
4368
4536
4704
4872M
W
hours since March 1st
20072008200920102011
March 14th 2011
22
Data: Entso-e, own figure
23
Source: BNetzA
Wind, Solar, Import - Export
24
• Nuclear phase-out plans were legally in force for the past 10 years except between Oct 2010 - March 2011
• Security of supply: enough replacement options
• Small effects on electricity prices
• No nuclear imports
• Future electricity system: renewable
Conclusions
