February 10th 2015

Future Cities AfricaFuture proofing to climate, environment and natural resource

challenges

Supporting inclusive, resilient low carbon development

Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA

@peterheadCBE

__Climate, environment and natural resource challenges

Contents

Section 1

Section 2 __ Global -Local Action to support inclusive, resilient low carbon development

Section 3 __ From observatory to collaboratory

__ Innovation in financing of inclusive, resilient development

Section 4

Section 5 __ Demonstration regions and knowledge sharing

1. Climate, environment, naturalresource challenges

Our Shrinking Earthpopulation growing at 80m per year

19007.91

19505.15

19872.60

20052.02

20301.69

20501.44

YEARHectares of Land Per Capita

USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3

ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development

peter.head@arup.com

Accra

Human development and ecological footprint

ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development

peter.head@arup.com

Low to middle income countries

Transition from agricultural to ecological age

A new paradigm of urban and rural development with integrated urban-rural resource flows

2. Global-local action to support inclusive, resilient, low carbon

development

ACCRA CITY RESILIENCE 100 RESILIENT CITIES The capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience

AGING INFRASTRUCTURE

DISEASE OUTBREAK

FLOODING (COASTAL AND RAINFALL)

INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE

LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING

POLLUTION OR ENVIRONMENTAL DEGREDATION SOCIAL INEQUITY

ENERGY WATER

FOOD RAW MATERIALS

ENERGY

Resource Efficiency

WATER

By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food

1. A Regional Approach 2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act3. Uniting economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses

Approach to Sustainable Regions

Greenhousegases

Greenhousegases

Greenhousegases

Solid waste

Degraded waters

Manufactured goods

HINTERLAND

Manufactured goods

Fuels andRaw materials

Water

Food

Housing

3. From observatory to collaboratory

Public Sector

Geographies

Private Sector

ResearchNGO

&Philanthropy

Silos

Sectors

TEST

The Decision to Create TEST

Licence Form

Region

Application nameOrganisation

Partnership agreement

Technical support service

Earth Simulator

Region Simulator

www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecosequestrust.org

In the last twenty years, the world has

• Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network

• Created a population of over 1 billion Internet users

• And another population of some 6 billion mobile telephones

• Embedded some billions of sensors in our environment and infrastructure

• Invented globally-integrated business processes

Citizen science and smart communities

Observatory Collaboratory

Citizen sensing

Earth observation

Awareness

Mapping

Design capability

Collaborative intelligence

Action for systems change

Investment and insurance

Adaptation & risk mitigation

Improved quality of life

£ support for R&D

EU- JRCData Common Framework Agreements and InteroperabilityStandardsData repository

Data brokering framework linked to Systems Model Engine

The system of community life　

　　　　　　　　

Syn City City resources IIER Economics

EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture

Climate model data

Earth observation and ground sensors for land use data

Soil and geologyPROFILE

Government data eg demographics, employmentCrowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G

Resource flows Sankey Diagrams

Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure

transport

logistics and waste management

sewerage, potable and non-potable water energy

agriculture, landscape and urban design

Economic Region Social, Env, Economic Targets

Data Processor Boundaries

Economic Region Social, Env, Economic Targets Power

Water Treatment

IndustryMining

Building cluster

Railway

BIM

IIMProcessorBoundaries

Agriculture,grassland Forest

Data Processor Boundaries

Energy

Water

Mass goods&minerals

Agents

Governance?

Managed by a social enterprise

Funded from the regional investment fund

Fund management by a community regional bank

Used free by public, private sectors, communities and NGO’s

Regional collaborative intelligence

Housing

Standards for energy efficient higher quality buildings and training to design and build them

Transformation of a city economy through replacing traffic with walking, cycling -Seoul

Investing 1% GDP per year ($400m) in public transport rather than just building roadsincluding dedicated walking and cycling routes

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Education

On-line science, engineering, maths, economics, social science,

politics, humanities MOOCSline

Gaming for school children

Local Universities

Ecology Health

Air Water Soil Quality

Human Healthwell-being nutrition, life-span, healthcare costs

Labour- skill, job availability, salary, productivity

Training & Education-skill and knowledge through learning and education

Human agentsand their well-being

Economy

Asset Value

Goods

High quality Inclusive resilient growth

“Green, circular, Knowledge economy”

4. Innovation in financing ofinclusive, resilient development

The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural

Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model

OutputSuccessful

improvement in energy-water-food

security and quality of life

“Project portfolio”

Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model

Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’

Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds

Return Investment

Assurance

“High quality inclusive resilient growth”

39

Water management strategies including treatment of waste, capture and recycling, swales and alternative land and flood management. Also development of storage lakes and wetlands. All aimed to create new jobs and improve water quality and health and create leisure areas.

.

• Energy efficiency retrofit including lighting, appliances, building services, industrial plant, water management to lower living costs and reduce fuel poverty

• New ecological and affordable low carbon, resource efficient housing and commercial mixed use developments which aim to improve urban and rural economy and human health and quality of life.

41

Integrated utility systems including CHP, renewable energy, solar, anaerobic digestion of biomass, water treatment linked to new industry.

42

Urban farming development including rooftops

• Forestry and rural biomass production for energy generation to reduce dependency on fossil fuel power. Also local biofuel production for new generations of farm and construction machinery. Overall demonstration of carbon sinks in natural ecosystems

 Waste management to reduce landfill and using all biomass from urban- rural-forestry for energy and composting. Up-cycling of waste for new products and the fashion industry creating many new jobs, also linked to community-led development

- Smart grid regional demonstration project linked to smart appliances, electric car and vehicle use and renewable energy installations of PV and wind.

  Industrial symbiosis and

remanufacturing and re-use clusters in new industrial

parks with integrated utility systems.

46

Improvements in public transport, walking and cycling routes with ongoing pedestrianisation of some parts of the city to reduce noise and air pollution

with associated health benefits. Also the introduction of consolidation centres and low carbon delivery methods.

Consolidation centres

Direct Deliveries to Tenants/ Businesses

City Consolidation

Centres

Drop off Station if

Tenant is out

Tenants and Businesses

Delivery vehicles

Inefficient deliveries

Efficient deliveries

Access control •Low Emission Zone,•Congestion Charge, etc

Electric Trucks

Electric Bikes

5. Demonstration regionsand knowledge sharing

Target Trust Demonstrator Network

CHINANDRCMOHURDAPEC 2 Eco Demo Regions

International Centre Chongqing University

UK

Dorset LEP

IFS

DFID

Cities Alliance Future Cities Africa Accra

African Centre for CitiesAfrican Urban Research Initiative

Mainland EuropeDenmark,

ICLEI GIZ Climate KIC-IFS

GlobalUNEPUN HabitatUNDP

UNSDSNUCCRN

AmericasDemo regionsRio de JaneiroUSA city

Mongolia 2 Demo regionsUlaanBaatarGobi RegionUN ADB FCO

Knowledge sharing

Universities will play a key role in supporting this research, development and education opportunity locally and in EU and worldwide. Knowledge sharing in demonstration regions and across Africa can be facilitated by Africa Research Initiative (ACC) and globally by UN University.

Prototype demonstration - scope

Future Cities Africa

World’s first demonstration of the functionality of the resilience.io prototype model through a sector application in Accra. The outputs highlight relevant resilient solutions and inform policy and/or planning decision-making, investment and links to SDGs.

Cities in Africa to become future proofed to climate, environment and natural resource challenges, so that they are inclusive and resilient, and have growing economies.

Output 3

• Model specifications, development and testing • Engagement• Data collection & sector specification• Workshop March 2015• Prototype demonstration workshop 2016

• Investment support opportunities• Collaboratory development

Activities

Questions..