EUCARPIA: Pre-Breeding: Fishing in the genepool, Sweden June 2013

Genetic resources and traits to address climate change

The Challenge

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

No matter what, change is upon us

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

CO2 Fertilisation

• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the

world will experience novel combinations of climate

And also non-linear responses of crops to climates

•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C

•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree

Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

Potato

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

Potato Current Suitability

Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00

Growing season (days) 120

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50

Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

Potato Current Suitability and Presence

Potato Current Climatic Constraints

Potato Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative

Heat and drought?

Potato Impacts by Countries

Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio

AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West EuropeCAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe

Cassava

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…

…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

What will this mean for cassava?

Growing season (days) 240

Killing temperature (°C) 0

Minimum absolute temperature (°C)

15.0

Minimum optimum temperature (°C)

22.0

Maximum optimum temperature (°C)

32.0

Maximum absolute temperature (°C)

45.0

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm)

300

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm)

800

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm)

2200

Maximum absolute rainfall (mm)

2800

Current suitability

Current climatic constraint

What will this mean for cassava in 2030?

Heat and drought?

Not for cassavaDrought tolerance will push adaptation up into SahelBig gains also from cold tolerance – despite climate change, this continues to be the major constraint globally

The Rambo root!

But what about other staples?

The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

Cassava suitability change compared with other staples

• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in terms of changes in suitability

Drought and heat?

Message 3:Different breeding challenges for

different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!

Outlook for Genetic Resource

• Increased demand: looking beyond current crop genetic base

• Greater GR interdependence between countries: Future climate for a given country more similar to other countries

Adapting Agriculture to Climate ChangeCollecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives

project

Fishing in the genepool with the NET!

Major biodiversity loss predicted

CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change

First strategy: mitigate emissions!

Second strategy: Safeguard!

Consideration in breeding for CC• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures will increase,

rainfall likely to change, greater variability in many parts of the world• Climate affects multiple factors, all need to be considered:

– Growing season timing, length of growing season– Pests and disease patterns (big gap in knowledge)– Crop distribution, affecting other non-climate related traits and constraints

– e.g. soil-related constraints– Crop physiology, crop development phases speed up etc.

• Models can help priority set, but not provide final answers. Data and analysis can set a context – real biological scientists then need to decide!

• Genetic resources: Yet more reason to conserve them, outlook for more use

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