EARTH WEEK

With Stephen Fenech

FOCUS• L.C.D. ’s• Who’s Right? CO2 Cause or Effect?

• Facts of Fragility • Issues & Impressions• Solutions

TOURISTS ON EARTH

• The Earth has been around for a very long time and we have not. Even the experts and scientists can only examine data they perceive to be pertinent and draw educated conclusions based on their perceptions. The bottom line is nobody really knows FOR SURE.

TOPICS

• ECOLOGY• BIODIVERSITY• CLIMATE CHANGE• ISSUES• CONSERVATION

Lowest Common Denominators

• Population Supply and Demand Food, Resources

• Money Economic and Political Power

• The Sun The Source and The Culprit??

Many Other Factors

The Preconception

The Reality

Overpopulation

The First StepThe First Step

Pioneering. & Learning

Proof is In The PuddingThe Native Spirital ConnectionTo The Land

Ecology –Gk (oikos -home) Science of the relationship between organisms and their environments. Draws on many different science fields..

Subdivisions Of Ecology

• ORGANISM Plants Animals Microbial

• HABITAT Terrestrial Limnology Oceanography

• BIOMES & BIOSPHERE –the 4’th envelopecollections of similar organisms

HYDROSPHERE LITHOSPHERE ATMOSPHERE

Organism Plant

Organism Animal

Organism Microbial

Terrestrial Habitat

Limnology Habitat

OceanographyHabitat

…all together comprise the Biomes that make up our Biosphere

…

Life is based on cycles and begins with the SUN

Water Carbon Nitrogen Oxygen

The Food Web (another cycle)

EnergyPhotosynthesisHerbivores (producers) ….

Carnivores(consumers)

Decomposers(includes bacteria, fungus)

The Whole process can ONLY be replenished by Green Plants’ exposure to the SUN

…Eventually if undisturbed the Ecosystem or Biome goes through a process of Succession….

Climax Communities

Tundra

Grassland

Desert

Ecological Crisis

Occurs when there is a loss of the adaptive capacity and resilience of the environment, species or population. They evolve in an unfavourable way OR they can’t cope with a disturbance in the Ecosystem.

2 Kinds of Crisis

GLOBAL – Rise in Sea Level

LOCAL – Oil Spill

Endangerment

Can cause Extinction but will definitely affectquality of life of remaining individuals (reduction in air quality, living space, famine, disease)

Examples:HABITAT DESTRUCTION INTRO EXOTIC SPECIES OVEREXPLOITATION

Habitat Destruction

Panama

Culprits of Habitat

Destruction

•Climate Change•Pollution•Urbanization•Human Activity

Introduction Of Exotic Species

Overexploitation

Chinese Apothecary

EXTINCTION

1. STABLE

-Cessation of a species or group reducing biodiversity

Classification

2. THREATENED

3. CRITICAL

4. EXTINCT Every species is unique and so is it’s extinction

5. LAZERUS TAXON

EXTERPATION local extinction

Pseudo Extinction

A daughter species survives but doesn’t carry all the original DNA

Causes of Extinction

1. Genetic & Demographic

•Small population •more vulnerable•Natural selection (cockroaches)

2. Habitat Degradation(shock or chronic)

•Diminished resources•Toxicity

3. Predation, Competition, Disease

•Rats escaping boat•Invasive alien species•Animals hunted to extinction

4. Co-Extinction

The loss of one species may lead to the inevitable loss of another. Damming a river, the beaver creates a niche for several other animals dependant on the created lake. If the beaver is lost so too are the dependant animals or fish. Parasitic insects losing their host is another example.

If Bees become extinct it is widely believed that it would precipitate our co-extinction shortly after

MASS EXTINCTION

• 5 Major Ones in the history of life• K-T Extinction Event -last one wiped out

the dinosaurs (65 million years ago)• Scientists believe we are in the early

stages of a human caused mass extinction called the Holocene Extinction Event

Planned Extinction: small pox virus, malaria carrying species of mosquitoesCloning: hypothetically possible to bring back extinct species but no success yet

BIODIVERSITY• Studies the way natural systems work and

how they “got that way”• Originates from Ecology and Evolution• It is the result of 4 billion years of

Evolution• So many species because no one species

can be perfect trade-offs & specialization• Human activities are reducing biodiversity

Benefits Of Biodiversity

• Food & Drink• Medicine most drugs come from biological sources

• Industrial Materials wood, rubber, adhesives

• Ecological Services sibilance, recycling of

nutrients (volcanoes, forest fires)

• Leisure Cultural and Aesthetic Value

3 Levels of Biodiversity

1. Genetic

DNA are the building blocks and represent the Raw material for evolution. More diverse the DNA the more it evolves and adapts

2. Species

Focus because it’s easier to work with (Leopard)

3. Ecosystem

Very Complex -deals with species’ distribution, community, associations - examines levels on the Food chain and species on each - difficult to define Transitions Shift gradually not sharp

Island Biogeography

•Isolation + Evolution = Biodiversity

•Chance species will land on an island depends on how far it is from the mainland

Island could be a lake or an isolated patch of unique habitat

Anton Valley

Ocelot

GAINING BIODIVERSITY

MUTATION - altering genetic information

SPECIATION – Creation of new species through isolation,

competition and polyploidy

IMMIGRATION -entering a new area

SUCCESSION -process area gains and replaces species until

CLIMAX Community reached

Polyploidy describes An organism or cell with more than two sets of chromosomes

Loch Ness

Speciation

Galapagos Islands

Immigration

Succession

Lake Nakuru

LOSING BIODIVERSITY

1. EXTINCTION2. COMPETITION3. DISTURBANCES 4. BOTTLENECKS

Competition

Disturbances

Eliminates population and keeps area at an early level of succession

Threats to Biodiversity

Species are the Foundation to the Ecosystem.

Habitat DestructionPollution

Human Consumption

Industrialization

ACID RAIN: an end result

From Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxide released into atmosphere by industry1960 recognized 1980’s acted upon 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act1995 43% reduction 1980

BUT… acid precipitation will continue to damage sensitive ecosystems even if all targets are met

Exotic Species

By bringing goats to the Galapagos Islands, man introduced 2+ species that never would have met under natural circumstances

Man can also be the invader

Climate Change and Natural Changes can threaten Biodiversity

Conservation: 2 Types

In situ setting up protected areas

Ex situ nurseries protecting large populations

Virunga Forest in the D.R.O.C.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate:long term statistical expression of Short term weather

Climate ChangeChange in a region’s average temperature and weather patterns or basically the expected weather

The Climate War

• CO2 is causing Global Warming

• Oceans will rise when polar ice cap melts

• Man is the chief culprit by releasing Green house gases like C02 and methane into the atmosphere burning fossil fuels

• CO2 is 0.54% of atmosphere not the cause but an effect

• 800 year lag between temp and CO2 levels because of deep ocean

• CO2 ^ temp drops• Sunspots chief culprit as

witnessed in Mini Ice Age (15’th Century)

INCONVENIENT TRUTH ALTERNATE TRUTH

Common Points• Climate is always changing• Noticeable shift after the Industrial Revolution

1850’s• There is a direct link between CO2 levels and

temperature• Climate has a memory

Both sides are looking for validation or perhaps fame and they both have arguments that carry weight but the truth is they are all hypothesis and I conclude there could be any number of factors separate or combined and more research is required.

Feedback Loops Causal Cycles

• Positive Feedback Loops (bad) reinforce the initial change• Negative Feedback Loops (good) counteract the initial change leading to

equilibrium

The Climate Scientist’s Math: Positive > Negative

Severity of Human Induced Climate change has the potential of irreversibility

Positive Feedback Loop: Ice Albedo Effect (reflectivity) The Cryosphere

• If we go from a Reflective to an Absorptive surface we change the fundamental energy dynamic of the entire planet

AtmosphereBecomes Warmer

Melting Ice

Lower Reflectivity

Ocean Absorbs More Energy

CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS

• Oceans and Ice Caps• Impact Of Humans• Climate Forcing Salinity the Mid Atlantic Current

• Earth’s Orbit (Solar Output)• Greenhouse Gas Concentration• Atmospheric Variations• Changes Within Earth’s Environment

Day After Tomorrow

FACT: Glaciation

•Most sensitive indicator of Climate Change•In the last century have not been able to regenerate ice lost in summer

Glaciers and the Ice Cap reflect light and heat back into space. Without them we can absorb more heat from the sun

FACT: Ocean Variability

The Ocean and Atmosphere are constantly interacting exchanging energy, Co2 etc. Anomalies such as El Nino can drastically alter weather around the World.

FACT: Climate Memory

Climate Variance can stem from the history of how it got there. Long Droughts in areas can lead to diminished rainfall for years after the drought is finished.

Ethiopia

Non Climate Factors Driving Warming

1. Greenhouse Gases

Co2 absorbed by Forests & Ocean Radiative Forcing

2. Plate Tectonics

3. VolcanismPart of Co2 cycle

1.Human InfluenceFossil Fuels Aerosols Land Use

Transition From Petroleum Age To Post Petroleum Age

5. Solar Variation

Sun’s getting brighter

6.Orbital Variation our orbit can lead to changes in distribution & abundance of sunlight

EVIDENCE OF CHANGEmostly indirect

Glacial GeologyGlacial GeologyMoraines left Behind

(Mt. Cook)

Ice CoresTree RingsGlacial RetreatSea Levels

Historical Records

The real effect

Permafrost

Desertification

Effect of Climate Change on Biodiversity

•Life cycle of many plants and animals linked to season• Interdependent species will lose synch•Territory lost after forced migration•Weeds proliferate at expense of scarcer species

Sibilance…Sort Of If Bees disappear …we wouldn’t be far behind

Humanitarian Effects of Climate Change•More competition•Forced Migrations•Food Security & Water supply•More pressure on crop yields•Peace and security•Health, epidemics sanitation(malaria will occur at higher altitudes)

Environmental migrations most predominant in Sub-Saharan countries like Mali

Climate Change exaserbates the countries dire state. 40% of Mongolia’s 2.6 million people lack safe drinking water = high incidence diarrheal disease child malnutrition and mortality subsist with sheep but they need water too. wells drying up

Mongolia

Other EffectsRising Sea Levels

Cryosphere If all the Ice in Greenland and Antarctica melts sea levels could rise by 70 m

…Will cause Flooding

Extreme Weather

Extreme Weather

Human Health

REFUGEES Forced Migrations Inland

Crowding of Cities: Shanty Towns

Disease & Pestilence

PandemicsSwine Flu in Mexico

Effect on Developing Countries Worse

AIDS Orphanage in Burkina Faso

Remoteness

Climate Change lies strictly out of the influence of the Poor

Political Turmoil

Civil Unrest

Severe Impact on Flora and Fauna

Etosha National Park, Namibia

Proliferation of Invasive SpeciesPine Bark Beetles in B.C. • With warmer climate they

are reproducing more than once and are now decimating BC’s Pine Forest and are now starting to cross the Rockies threatening the Rest of Canada’s Boreal Forest

Climate Change Hits Home: An Ecological Crisis

KYOTO Protocol

International Agreement designed to reduce Greenhouse Gases by 5% under 1990 levels by the year 2012. Came into effect February 2005 too conservative billion more than forecast some alarmists say

G8 half

•Political Issues: U.S. want weaker legislation (LCD $$$)•2009 update 385 ppm CO2

•if exceed 450 ppm Pos Feedback Loop

Get to Zero asap100 yr = 33%1000yr =20%

Implementing Kyoto: Developed Country

OVERVIEW AUSTRALIARenewable and non-renewable Export coal =economicsAir quality pollution issuesSolar, Wind, BiomassWater Crisis compared to American Dustbowl of Thitrtiestry implement Wave Power

Implementing Kyoto: Developing Countries

OVERVIEW MADAGASCAR•Insufficient infrastructure•Runaway erosion •Political and economic woes•Most living in poverty

Industrializing Nations: CHINA

3 Gorges Dam + 3 more

2009 Shanghai sediment landslides 50m tsunamis deaths

Lesson learned or not in Lesotho

Industrializing Nations: INDIA

MORE SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Different Ideology: INDONESIA

Changing Lifestyles: UGANDA

•Tourist Fiasco•Influx of new people for logging•affect Pygmies traditional ways •Hired to shoot animals with guns

EROI’sEnergy Return On Investment

• How Much Energy do we get back for Energy spent to get Energy?

Texas 30’s 100:1Current 17:1Tar Sands 4:1Ethanol 1:1

•The more technology advances , the more energy is required to sustain it•Climate Change will require lots of energy to address exactly at time when we are transitioning from abundant cheap energy sources to scarce expensive ones. Not fully understood by academic community

Energy Addressing Climate Change Examples Pump H20 from new wet areas to new dry areas Relocate Coastal cities Desalination Pump billions tonnes of co2 underground

Wood Now ReversingCoal 80:1OilNat. Gas

The Paradox

A Universal Kyoto Obstacle

Post Petroleum Age

Beacons of Hope: ANTARCTICA

Montreal Protocol: ...1982 signed …1999 success

The Antarctic Convergence

CFC’s were killing Ozone (filters radiation) effect on microscopic marine life, skin cancer, immunity

Ecotourism: A mandate of IAATO

•1991 Antarctic Treaty for Environmental Protection•Co-op with local Gov’ts and scientific foundations. Protect krill

And by protecting the krill you protect…

Antarctica has one of the most fragile of all ecosystems

Malaysia

Continued Research:

International Polar Year From March 2007, 10 000 Scientists began conducting 2 year study of the polar regions (most sensitive) co-ordinate research initiative and inspire new scientists. They will reconvene on August 2009 to present their findings

Green Energy Initiatives

Renewable Energy Sources that do not damage the environment

Brazil: Ethanol from Sugar Cane

Excellent subsidies for farmers but Low EROI

BIOMASS PowerWood & Animal Dung

FACT The potential energy wasted every year from wood and paper being thrown away by North Americans could supply 5 million people for 200 years!

WIND Power

Enough Wind Resources to meet twice the Global Need in 2020 New Windmills Stay aloft in the Jet Stream powerful untapped resource

TIDE Power

Lumkara in RussiaBay of Fundy in Canada

HYDRO Electricity

SOLAR Power

There is enough energy generated from the Sun to meet 10 000 times our global need

WAVE Power BUT…..

Harnassing the Waves •viable energy source•desalination in Oz

Portugal

…the economy

GEOTHERMIC Power

Pingveller Iceland

Education: A lesson from Bhutan

Their Practical Zen

In a recent study Kyoto and Beyond it has been proven that we can cut Greenhouse Gases in half with existing technology while maintaining our quality of life and economic growth in a business as usual policy. The Key is Motivation and Knowledge.

SUSTAINABILITY Planned Cities William Macdonough

Some International Groups Focused on Positive Change

• WCU -World Conservation Union

• WFN -World Wildlife Fund For Nature

• UNESCO- preserving World Heritage Sites • OXFAM – monitors the science and politics of Climate Change

• ICSWMO - doing the 2 year polar study

• IAATO – Focuses on Antarctica’s Ecosystem

• Green Peace – working with industry & gov ’t trying to develop

Solar energy solutions for 2 billion people

• IPCC – Int’l Panel on Climate Change

The Conventional / Radical Continuum (Ontario)

• Efficiency & Conservation• Renewables• Coal (With CO2 Captured & Pumped Underground• Atmosphere CO2 capture $$ For CO2 entrepreneurs• GeoEngineering (aerosols scary Michael Crichton)• Paradigm Shift on Economic Growth (spread the wealth

David Suzuki) shock to our systems: economic political

The More We Have The More Problems We Have. Some of the Happiest People I have met live on less than 2 bucks a day

CONVENTIONAL

RADICAL

Positive Steps In Canada

• City of Calgary uses Wind power for Rapid Transit

• Edmonton cutting fuel consumption of public transport

• Toronto cools the air in the CBD through a marvelous network of cooling pipes out of Lake Ontario ALSO more federal funding to TTC buses. Starting to use biofuel

Ontario’s Future Initiatives.

• The province is exploring new initiatives such as a new technology

Ground Source Heat Pumps

• Work like a reverse refrigerator to wean the province off it’s heavy demand on home heating energy costs especially in Wintertime

• Leave the Car Parked use your bicycle• Turn off Appliances not used• Eat Meat Free at least once a week• Eat Organic Food In Season• Compost • Thermostat Up in Summer Down Winter• Use your Blue Box and Green Box• Spread the Word

What You Can Do… Reduce That

Carbon Footprint

The Water Bottle Fiasco

It’s All About Cycles

Natural Cycles (recycling) Causal Cycles (Feedback Loops) Perpetual Motion

and Getting The Ball Rolling

We Need To Take Serious Stewardship Of Our Planet. Natural Systems work because there Are No Design Flaws.

We are Solely Responsible for introducing those flaws to the Planet.

Ergo It is our Duty To Remove Them

EQUILIBRIUM

It’s Your Future

Crisis is the Impetus Of Creativity

THE End