Do you know how fast you are going? Agile Tour London 2015

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Do you know how fast you are going?

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At We are starting to try to collect the data to find out, and to get relativity we need others to join us!

Douglas [email protected]@douglastalbot

Head of Organisational EffectivenessThought provoker and Catalyst

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Ocado icons

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Stage 1 - Evolution

Admit the problem!

5?

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Can we estimate?

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The goal estimate is‘‘the most optimistic prediction that has a

non-zero probability of coming true’’ - Tom DeMarco 1982

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Focal BiasAnchoring and Adjustment problems

MotivationPerceived power

Social cuesTemporal perspective

UnpackingDeliberationetc etc etc

The team scaling fallacy

The Planning Fallacy

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Dunning – Kruger effect

Unrealistic optimismOver estimating desirable effects

Over confidence in judgementInformation deficits

Ill defined nature of competenceInformation neglect

Focus on the selfInfluenced by external cues

Self Perception Fallacy

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Flawed self assessment StanfordEdu - Biased Self Views.pdf

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80% of developers think they are above average

XKCD 715

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80% of software teams think they are above average

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Stage 1

Shall we admit the problem?

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Stage 2 - Evolution

Start to measure

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So lets imagine we have all of these

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Do we know how fast we are going?

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We can probably all make a quick judgement about having more data ...

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Stage 2 - Efficiency measurement

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We can compare ourselves to our last attempt- How much did we do?- Has our quality got better?- How fast can we deliver change?

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We have an Efficiency measure

Do you think this team is going fast?:Lead time: 103 daysCycle time: 81 daysEfficiency: 49.5 / 81 = 61%Throughput: 6 Small features

3 Medium features

1 Large feature / 81 days

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We can probably even answer more esoteric questions -

How predictable is that?Can we better use our people?

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Efficiency measurement

There have been studies considering this in far more detail looking at best methods for:

TCO - Total Cost of Ownership, CoQ - Cost of quality, Speed1

Factors of success, Factors of value, Project failure rates2

1.InfoQ - Evaluating agile software methodologies2.http://www.standishgroup.com/Reports2015

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But are we missing some important knowledge?

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So what do we need?

Your turn

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How many of you measure value?

Standish 1995 - 80% of projects cost more than the

value they delivered!

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Stage 3 - Evolution

Measure more meaningfully

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Delighted customers

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Effectiveness

- Customer retention- Customer acquisition- Spend / shop- Social networks- etc etc etc- NOT vanity metrics

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Make money or Deliver mission

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Effectiveness

- Share price- Profit- Crime lowered- People saved- Fewer accidents- More biodiversity

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Happy Organisation / Boss

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Effectiveness

- Was it worth it (ROI)?- Creativity- Innovation- On time- On budget- Impressive brand win- Lower costs to recruit

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What should we be measuring about ourselves as a team to be the best we can be for our businesses and create trust/belief in our integrity and skills?

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Stage 3 - Effectiveness measurement

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Effectiveness

Do you think this team is going fast?:Value: + £231,000 sales volume,

+2% customer retention+1% customer

acquisition on previous ratein the last 30 days

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Bibliography David Anderson Don Reinertsen Eric Ries Mary Poppendieck

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What other measures do we need to know how fast we

are going?

Your turn again

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Stage 4 - People measurement

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Engaged team = faster team?

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Happy organisation?

Ocado Technology Adjusted data for example

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Fastteam?

Sentiment No. of answersOverall 0.588 100

Department 1 0.928 2









Department 10

0.234 1

Department 11

0.124 10


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Can we know what this does to Efficiency and Effectiveness?

Sentiment No. of answersOverall 0.588 100










Department 10

0.234 1

Department 11

0.124 10


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Adam Tomhill – Code as a crime scene

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But are we missing some important knowledge?

Do we really know how fast we are going yet?

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20/but What’s the difference?

400

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20

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How would you really know you’re FAST?

or better than average?or Awesome?

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Let’s try

Efficiency - 61% Value add, Throughput – 3 Medium features / 81 daysValue - £231,000 and 2% new customers in the last 30 daysWe have a sentiment score of 0.8

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Is that fast, > average, or awesome?

How much faster can we get?

How fast learning are we?

Some questions

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“If you’re not moving at the speed of the market you’re already dead … you just haven’t stopped breathing yet”

- Jack Welch, CEO GE

Are our devs / teams at market speed?

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Relative Productivity?+

Relative Lead time?+

Relative Speed to pivot capacity?

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At

We are starting to try to collect the data to find out. But, to get relativity we need others to join us!

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Internal Relativity

Team rotationPeer feedbackHealth checks

Internal code qualityFailure demand ratio

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University scholars compete

Even lawyers have potential comparative measures

External Relativity

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Why would I hire you as a software developer or

your software development team?

How fast do you go?

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The how discussion!

Coding competition?1

Trust for Productivity study?2

Team rotation?Common assessment model? But for teams?

Hopefully brainstorm time

1.Peopleware, Timothy Lister & Tom de Marco2.Teams in the test tube

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At We are starting to try to collect the data to find out, and to get relativity we need others to join us!

Please come and chat!

Make contact if you are interested in this challenge.

Douglas [email protected]@douglastalbot

I’m hiring Catalysts / Coaches!