CONTROLLING GLOBAL WARMING THROUGH

LAND USE PLANNING

Introduction

Global Warming - The increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

It is the result of different “external” factors:

Sun’s orbital forcing “slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the orbit”

Volcanic eruptions Atmospheric greenhouse gas resulting from “human

activities”.

Greenhouse Gases

Some greenhouse gases occur naturally and are emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes and human activities.

Other greenhouse gases are created and emitted solely through human activities.

The main greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere because of human activities are: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Fluorinated Gases

Greenhouse Gases

Some trapped by the atmosphere

Some re-radiated to space as heat

Absorbed by Earth

Sun’s Radiation

Greenhouse Gases

The Earth maintains a natural carbon balance. Carbon is continually exchanged within a closed system consisting of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and landmasses.

Natural Carbon Cycle

Image adopted from Nasa

Global Warming Trends

`There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activity'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001

Global Warming Trends

‘Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas

concentrations.'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Global Warming Trends |Observations of recent climate change

Global mean temperature

Global averagesea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global Warming Trends |Carbon Dioxide Concentration

Adapted from USGCRP (US Global Change Research Program)

800 600 400 200 0

CO

2 (

ppm

v)

Thousands of Years Before Present

Present CO2 concentration (383 ppmv)

CO2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv)

240

300

270

210

180

Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004

Te

mp

.P

roxy

Carbon Dioxide Concentration

- Sea level rise : by thermal expansion AND ice melt

- Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic)

- Glaciers melting worldwide

- Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest

- Melting on ice sheets is accelerating

- More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, hard freezes, etc.)

- Bottom line:

• These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs

Signs that global warming is underway

Human activities that cause global warming|

Activities that produce Carbon Dioxide

Fossil fuel burning to produce energy used for:

Transportation

Manufacturing

Heating

Cooling

Electricity generation

The use of fossil fuel currently accounts for 80 to 85% of the carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere.

Land use changes:

Clearing land for logging, ranching, and agriculture. Deforestation

Land use changes are responsible for 15 to 20% of current carbon dioxide emissions (Published by United Nations Environment Group).

Human activities that cause global warming|Activities that produce Carbon Dioxide

Carbon Dioxide emissions

Adapted from: http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/04.html

Human Activities that cause global warming | Activities that produce Methane

Methane (natural gas) is the second most important of the greenhouse gases resulting from human activities.

It is produced by: Rice cultivation Cattle and sheep ranching Decaying material in landfills.

Human activities have increased the concentration of methane in the atmosphere by about 145% above what would be present naturally (Published by United Nations Environment Group).

Human Activities that cause global warming | Activities that produce Nitrous Oxides

Nitrous oxide is produced by various agricultural and industrial practices.

Human activities have increased the concentration of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere by about 15% above what would be present naturally (Published by United Nations Environment Group) .

Example |motor vehicle impacts

TDM encyclopedia

International Initiatives to control global warming

Kyoto Protocol

The adoption of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 was a major step forward in tackling the problem of global warming. Yet the GHG’s were still increasing and they had to do in depth negotiations.

After two and a half years of intense negotiations, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997.

The Protocol shares the objective and institutions of the Convention. The major distinction between the two, however, is that while the Convention encouraged developed countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so.

Kyoto Protocol

Because of its effect on all major sectors of the economy, the Kyoto Protocol is considered to be the most far-reaching agreement on environment and sustainable development ever adopted. However, any treaty not only has to be effective in tackling a complicated worldwide problem, it must also be politically acceptable.

The Protocol requires developed countries to reduce their GHG emissions below levels specified for each of them in the Treaty. These targets must be met within a five-year time frame between 2008 and 2012, and add up to a total cut in GHG emissions of at least 5% against the baseline of 1990.

Kyoto protocol

At the end of March 2001, U.S. President George Bush said that he "opposed the Kyoto Protocol." One of the reasons he cited was because India and China would not be subject to Kyoto measures and would increase their emissions. Yet he ignored that on a per capita basis, India and China's emissions are far less than the United States, which is the worst. Furthermore, the U.S. is responsible for over 20 to 25 percent of the world's carbon dioxide emissions, for just 4 to 5 percent of the world's population.

Planners Chat

A city is fundamentally composed of an agglomeration of various tastes engendered by its key players.

The city’s influential players conform to a social agreement; which must drive their aspirations and formulate their targets.

As planners; we ought to be acquainted with the tactics and methodologies which guarantee attaining the interest of the public.

It’s the planners duty to gather the thoughts and views of the different city players, so as to construct a clear vision which leads our growth patterns and development trends.

Cont.

Enjoying cleaner environments with reduced emissions and less greenhouse effects must be incorporated within our vision; hence embraced in the strategies which activate and operate the accomplishment of this vision.

Factors Affecting Emissions

Individuals symbolize the nucleus within the city structure. In order to start from a solid base and confidently attack the causes and effects of the issue of global warming;

• People need to understand that the challenge of climate change is global, but it will require local solutions.

• People’s awareness should be augmented.

• People’s social responsibility and sense of belonging should be boosted.

Our Recommendations

In order to counter the greenhouse effect and to reduce the emissions; we should center our focus on two main lines of attack:

Land use Planning Strategies. Emission rates and vehicle

travel reduction strategies.

Land Use Planning Strategies

Smart Growth Intelligent Urbanism Zoning Transit Oriented Development (TOD)

Smart Growth

Create walkable neighborhoods.

Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration.

Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty and critical environmental areas.

Provide a variety of transportation choices.

Intelligent Urbanism

Emphasizes on the distinction between utilizing resources and exploiting them.

The principle promotes environmental assessments.

Creating environmental equilibrium.

Utilization of natural resources will outpace the natural ability of the eco-system to reload itself.

Intelligent Urbanism has a goal of protecting and conserving those elements of the ecology that are considered to be promotive to the environment.

Cont.

According to proponents of Intelligent Urbanism, acts against nature may include cutting of hillside trees, quarrying on slopes, dumping sewage and industrial waste into the natural drainage system, paving excessively, and construction on steep slopes.

Intelligent Urbanism proposes that the balance of nature can be maintained when fragile areas are reserved, conservation of eco-systems is pursued, and low intensity habitation are thoughtfully identified.

Zoning

Defined as the division of a city, municipality or community by legislative regulations into distinct areas or zones, specifying the uses permitted for the property in each area.

Zoning is a “police power”, i.e., the authority of government to regulate in the public interest.

Zoning is meant to protect public interest (health, safety, welfare, morals) and to ensure best and highest use of land

Cont.

Apply zoning concepts in conjunction with other relevant land use controls & tools with the aim of promoting sustainable development and capacity building for a given place, population characteristics, resource base and institutional framework.

Mixed-use zoning. Buffer zone for transitional use. Cluster development. Conditional zoning. Density transfers and TDR. Consent zoning. Incentive/Bonus zoning.

TOD

TOD calls for the creation of dense, walkable zones along the existing transit lines so that the inhabitants are capable of recognizing each other’s faces, share common facilities and resources, and often see each other at the village centre.

Fuel Tax Increases:

An effective way to reduce the emissions plus reducing energy consumption.

A 10% price increase typically reduces fuel consumption by about 3% within one year and 7% over five to ten years period.

Distance-Based Emissions Fees

An advanced system that uses electronic sensors to measure actual tailpipe emissions when a vehicle is driven.

It gives motorists an incentive to minimize emissions in a variety of ways: choosing less polluting vehicles, reducing mileage, keeping engines well-tuned, and driving more smoothly.

Global Warming and Land Use in the UAECase Study

UAE has one of the highest per capita emission rates in the world.

The global mean temperature is rising because of emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from fossil fuel consumption.

Climate change may affect the UAE by increasing the sea level, more flooding and extreme weather.

Global Temperature is Rising

The global mean temperature rose by approximately 0.6°C during the 20th century.

The 1990s was the warmest decade on record, while 1998 was the warmest year.

The global temperature is expected to climb from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 while the sea level may rise from 9 to 88 cm.

Economic growth and extreme climate

There has been a rapid increase in the consumption of energy and fossil fuels in the UAE due to population growth, accelerated economic growth and extreme climatic conditions.

High temperatures require use of air conditioning. Also, depletion of ground water resources has led the UAE to increase production of desalinated sea water which is energy demanding.

Climate change will increasingly be a driving force in itself. As temperatures increase, the demand for energy to air conditioning will also rise. At the same time, more energy will be needed to desalinate sea water.

High per capita CO2 emissions in UAE

The gases that contribute most to the greenhouse effect are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorine compounds.

Burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of emissions of greenhouse gases plus the nonstop construction which is taking place all over the emirates.

The most important sources of emissions:

Construction sites. Oil refineries. Oil platforms. Petrochemical and fertilizer plants. Power-and desalination plants

Cont.

More extreme weather and coral bleaching

Global climate change will have an impact in the medium to long-term. 

Flooding of coastal areas could become a problem as sea levels rise from polar ice cap melting  and thermal expansion.

Coral bleaching believed to be linked to climate change.

Extreme weather conditions will affect the entire region and will lead to:

• More frequent heat waves with increasing heat stress on the population.

• An increase in vector-borne diseases. • Increased likelihood of extreme events like drought

and flash floods. • More dust storms which will lead to heavier loads of air

born pesticides and heavy metals

Cont.

Cont.

Global cooperation through the Kyoto Protocol

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the Kyoto Protocol aims at reducing the global emissions of key greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent below the 1990 level during the period 2008-2012.

Most industrialized countries have undertaken commitments to limit their national emissions in order to reach this goal.

The UAE ratified the Kyoto Protocol in January 2005.

Reduced flaring of natural gas

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has zero-flaring as a strategic objective.

Flaring involves burning off waste gas or oil during testing or production processes.

From 1995 to 2004 flaring from oil and gas production was reduced from approximately 7,5 million cubic meter per day to 2,5 million cubic meter per day.

The UAE has started to adopt zero emission flaring technologies, and there is a transition to natural gas in power- and desalination plants to curb emission of greenhouse gases

Cont.

The UAE's CO2 emissions increased from 60,809,000 tones in 1990 to 94,163,000 tones in 2002.

Presently, the country has one of the highest per capita commercial energy consumption rates in the world.

Due to better technology and transition to more natural gas in power plants, emissions of CO2 per capita have decreased.

In 1990 the UAE emitted 32,6 tones CO2 per person per year.

In 2002 the figure had dropped to 25,1 tones per person per year, leaving UAE as number 4 on the top emitter per capita global ranking list

Cont.

Masdar

In April 2006, Abu Dhabi took a bold and historic decision to embrace renewable and sustainable energy technologies.

The Masdar Initiative has officially launched the world’s first attempt to create a zero-waste, zero-carbon sustainable city in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

The project plans will adopt the sustainable development tactics while maintaining the traditional planning principals of a walled city, together with existing technologies, to achieve a zero carbon and zero waste community.

Resources

Maureen. M, 2008. The issue that’s heating up. Winscon Natural Resources Magazine. Retrieved April 13, 2008 from: http://www.wnrmag.com/supps/2000/apr00/global.htm

UNEP. 2006. What Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change. World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved April 2, 2008 from: http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/04.html

USGCRP. 2008. The Global Carbon Cycle. Retrieved April 2, 2008 from: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.php

USCCSP. 2008. Providing a coordinated and focused scientific strategy for conducting federal carbon cycle research. Retrieved March 28, from: http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/

Wikipedia. 2007. Global Warming. Retrieved March 27, 2008 from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

Hopwood, N. Cohen, J. Greenhouse Gases and Society. Retrieved April 4, 2008 from: http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/greenhouse.htm

UNFCCC. 1998. Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved April 5, 2008 from: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 TDM Encyclopedia EAD.com Masdar.com

Thank You