Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 world

Climate smart crops for 2030: A CCAFS vision

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The Challenge

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The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

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Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

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In order to meet global

demands, we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

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Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

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Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

2006 2007 2008

Ecosystem valuation

Spot the livestock!

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CO2 Fertilisation

• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops

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Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

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Program Design

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CCAFS: the partnership

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1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

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The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

•Linking Knowledge with Action•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

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Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

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Place-based field work

Indo-Gangetic Plains:There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.

Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal

East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

Regional director:James Kinyangi

West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.

Regional director:Robert Zougmoré

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Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

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Risk

Management

THE VISION

• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency

• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term

•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.

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Pro-poor Mitigation

VISION

Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes

Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

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Integration

VISION

•Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context

• Synthesize lessons learned

•Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers

•Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions

•Build partners’ capacity

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Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs

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Building a user-driven agenda

• From large-scale stakeholder consultationse.g. GCARD, regional meetings

• Specific exercises with selected groups e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials

From local to regional to global

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Mainstream outputs and outcomes

For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results.CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network

For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and resultsGovernments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector

e.g. User-driven regional scenarios

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People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.

A Definition

• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action

The CCAFS Vision

Capacity enhancement

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• Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond• 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation• Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists

Social differentiation

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Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

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Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

1.1

• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)

• Agricultural knowledge transfer

• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms

Adapted farming systems

1.2

• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies

• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities

Breeding strategies for

climate stresses

1.3

• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation

• On-farm use of diversity to adapt

• Policies of access for benefit sharing

Species and genetic diversity

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Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel

climates

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Cassava pests under climate change

Cassava pests hotspots - 2050Cassava pests hotspots - 2050

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Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011)

Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012)

Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013).

Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015)

Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014)

Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations, universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)

Development of strategies

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Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015)

Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015)

Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2.

Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)

Dissemination of strategies

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future

The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

What CCAFS output?

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Why is it useful?

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>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

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• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)

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http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

>> Spotlight on:

Integration for Decision Making · 4

A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe

What CCAFS outputs?

To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies

Why is it useful?

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