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CIRCUITS TO PACKETS ITU Telecom World Doha, 7th December 2014
MARTIN GEDDES FOUNDER & PRINCIPAL MARTIN GEDDES CONSULTING LTD
With annotations
What is this presentation
about?
Packets can mean voice
quality problems
1
Regulators have a role in
managing quality
2
It is time to consider new
commercial and technical models
3
1 2 3
Packets can mean
quality problems
1
|8
Phone calls:
basic facts
|9
IPX
High perceived
value The first application of
networks is usually voice, and take-up among
network users is typically close to 100%
|10
Failure is very visible
Even short failures are very obvious. The endowment effect means that losing the
quality level you have become accustomed to causes great dissatisfaction. This can create a
crisis of legitimacy for regulators.
|11
Low data volume
Everyone knows that voice doesn’t use much ‘bandwidth’, but that isn’t really the issue.
|12
High quality
need
|13
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Every application, including voice, has a ‘budget’ for quality.
Time
One part of the ‘budget’ is the end-to-end packet delay
Variability
The other is the amount of variability in loss and delay,
since even the cleverest software cannot adapt if this
is too high.
|16
Circuits
In the world of circuits, we reserve capacity for individual calls.
TDM circuits… (Time Division Multiplexing)
Zero Variability
You aren’t competing with other users, so you
experience total isolation from what everyone else is doing on the network.
…to packet-based statistical multiplexing
MORE DEMANDS ON OUR
‘TIME BUDGET’
2G, 3G, 4G OTT WiFi
|21
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Packet world
More Variability
|22
So why use packets?
|23
Money is the answer, what is your question?
— Richard Shockey
|24
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Fill the silences
We long ago discovered we could pack in about 30% more
calls into a TDM circuit by filling the silences in our speech.
Intensify resource sharing
Packet networks take ‘fill the silences’ to its logical conclusion. It’s bit like taking a small
piece of land, and sharing it among many
people.
14/12/2014 26
Waiting time
This comes at a price: more waiting and variability.
|27
Examples of performance
problems
|28
BT 21CN VOICE
The UK incumbent operator spent a lot of money trying to replace circuits with packets for landline voice calls
FAILED Yet the project was infeasible from the
outset: they tried to fit the packet signalling within the timing constraints of the circuit
network, which was impossible.
|30
IPX
These are not isolated issues, but are endemic to our industry. Consider the
standard for quality-managed packet voice, IPX.
IPX Specification IR.34 v9.1§6.3.4
This does not specify a working phone call! The
average over a month could still allow for a 40 minute
period with 100% loss, and be compliant.
IPX performance and cost issues Why? Media and signalling are joined, which forces traffic the “long way”
?
Session Border Controllers
|34
De-jittering
De-jitter at every boundary
Because circuits have zero variability, we locally optimise to “low variability”.
|35
This creates the maximum
possible total packet delay.
|36
Result? Quality budget is
used up
|37
Everything fails under load. Why? No call admission control (CAC), so no graceful degradation.
Large European MNO’s enterprise converged voice service
|38
Unmanaged performance hazards Why? No schedulability limits in CAC.
(and every other UC vendor)
|39
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
|40
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
|41
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
|42
Small cells Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
|43
Small cells Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
|44
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
|45
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Networking and the Internet’s ‘global
warming’ problem”
|46
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “The six challenges of selling QoS”
|47
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Why Active Queue Management should worry telco investors”
|48
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
|49
DSL Lack of service continuity Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages VDSL – frequent short retrains
|50
DSL Lack of service continuity Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages VDSL – frequent short retrains
|51
Systemic risks
Going from 400+ to 6 switching centres with IP Transition: can
anyone model the performance risks in disaster situations?
(Answer: not really.)
|52
Why all these problems?
We’re trying to build network skyscrapers…
But we’re in the “digital medieval” period; the science
isn’t yet ready.
Result? Failure
under load
Statistical sharing = Variability
Source: Wikipedia/Imperial War Museum
It’s like when we moved to jet aircraft. We didn’t understand the dynamic loading properties of the
materials.
Source: Wikipedia/Krelnik
The result was catastrophic failure in operation. Passengers
were flying what were in effect experimental
aircraft. (SDN/NFV are experimental technologies being pushing
into deployment…)
|59
Why? Circuit thinking!
“Monoservice fallacy” The mistaken belief that
capacity and schedulability are the same thing.
|60
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
|61
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
|62
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
|63
IMS manages capacity constraints
not schedulability constraints You might want to
ask for your money back.
|64
This will get worse!
SDN/NFV create more variability
and aggregate failures.
|65
Current regulatory framework has no concept of
schedulability
Quality fraud
|66
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
“Bad” network operators take the cash for delivering
voice, but will engage in “quality fraud”.
1 2 3
Regulators have a role in
managing quality
2
Future packet voice dystopia
|70
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
|71
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
|72
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
|73
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
|74
Economic crisis in voice market!
Costs can’t drop (due to market size and overheads)
but prices can!
|75
The OTT quality arbitrage is finite
So OTT can’t take up the
slack
Future packet voice utopia
|77
Sustainable growth
New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services
Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
|78
Sustainable growth
New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services
Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
THE BIG QUESTION!
How to get trustworthy services,
that are affordable, and enable innovation?
|80
So, what
to do?
|81
Understand packets!
“Translocation as a Service” (with contention) vs
Circuit fragment (without contention)
Need to understand
what the packet
service is!
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
|87
Issue: Retail Numbering
does not impose a quality requirement.
|88
Outcome-oriented policies
(not tied to implementation mechanisms)
Answer…
|89
Issue: Wholesale Can’t compose
quality along the supply chain.
|90
New market role: Translocation
assurance provider
Answer…
|91
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
MEASURE QUALITY
Measure & enforce
The job of the ‘assurance’ provider
1 2 3
It is time to consider new
commercial and technical models
3
|94
Commercial approach
SET A PRICE FOR QUALITY
High Standard
Low
E164 NUMBERS • Your global trusted
brand for quality assurance
• You can’t control the media delivery…
• …so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
E164 NUMBERS • Your global trusted
brand for quality assurance
• You can’t control the media delivery…
• …so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
MARKET STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
The three basic jobs that get done in delivering phone
calls
TODAY’S REVENUE MODEL
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Minutes No billing for unanswered calls
No user charge for numbers
COST STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Translocation costs
Association costs
Numbering costs
TODAY’S (RELATIVE) COSTS
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Falling fast
Falling slowly/rising
Fixed/rising
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax Anti-spam
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
|105
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Compensate for negative externalities
What is a Pigouvian tax?
THREE REGULATORY QUALITY LEVELS
Threshold
Target
Stretch
Basic conformance
Threshold
Target
Stretch
Lose number or license
Tax substandard services
Threshold
Target
Stretch
Pigouvian tax on numbering
Threshold
Target
Stretch
No tax
Tax substandard services
Drive market developments
Threshold
Target
Stretch
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets.
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets.
Significant market power
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets. Such as higher definition, WebRTC assurance, video.
Offer quality assured and unassured number ranges
SOLVE “NET NEUTRALITY”
Fair and non-discriminatory pricing of quality is possible!
(How? Ask me!)
Technical approach
|116
Take control over the systemic
performance hazards (as operators and their
suppliers aren’t doing it)
FILL THE GAP IN STANDARDS FOR QUALITY
• The ITU needs to step up! • Provide scientific and thought
leadership • Create standards for composable
quality metrics that are a strong QoE proxy
THREE LAYER POLYSERVICE MODEL
Superior traffic costs more to deliver… so should attract a premium
Economy
Standard
Superior
Standard traffic is today’s off-peak Internet… but is consistently the same
Economy traffic does not drive capacity upgrades
Cost of 80 hours of voice/month?
25¢
(translocation cost only, based on UK cost metrics)
SUMMARY 1. Move the money! Identity and assurance is
where it will be. 2. Light touch on how services are delivered,
but a strong grip on what quality. 3. Pro-consumer and pro-citizen policies that
align with packet technical reality.
WANT TO LEARN MORE?
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READ THE GEDDES THINK TANK
Thank you www.martingeddes.com [email protected]