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Can Skynet Beat Humans in Signal Detection?
Background
Database Performance Management
Measure ‘All the Things’ in 1-Second Detail
Your Mandate
Manage 300x more data
with 1.5x more people.
Signal Detection Theory
Humans process up to 500GB of data per second.
Find the Outliers
Signal DetectionEasy Hard
Easy Signal Detection
Easy signals are always easy, regardless of set size.
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% Correct Response Time
Set Size Set Size
Hard Signal Detection
Hard signals get harder as set size increases.
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% Correct Response Time
Set SizeSet Size
Signal Detection in Use
Statistical Process Controls are “Easy”
Upper Control Limit
Lowe Control Limit
Signal Detection in Systems
1-Second CPU over 5 Minutes
What’s the cause?
Looking at Work
In a database, a query is work.
But, I have 300 query classes.
Crap.
Graph Everything
Query Execution Time
CPU
Reduce DataZoom & Remove the Obvious
1/10th of Data Points
Query Execution Time
CPU
Man vs MachineMan Machine
Man vs MachineMan Machine
Non-linear increasing CPU Statistically significant
Man vs MachineMan Machine
Non-linear increasing CPU Statistically significant
Pattern!
Not model friendlyPattern!
Pattern!
Shortcomings
Elephantsin the room?
Shortcomings
Humans lose with a
known pattern
Key Thoughts
Our brains do much better with fewer distractors, so eliminate them!
With unknown patterns, humans find signals faster than computers.
Thanks
http://www.flickr.com/photos/danielproulx/3524826318/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896627301003920
http://www.himandus.net/elefunteria/eday/puzzles/hunt_24.htmlhttp://www.federaljack.com/terminator-robots-a-reality/
Remember: Less is more.