Over the Horizon:

the Longer Term Evolution of the NBN

Bob James, Consultel+61417103281 rjames@consultel.com.au

Photo: Paul Paterson

Agenda: the Longer Term Evolution of the NBN

1. Time2013-2050 How far can we see?

2. Economics$$$$$$ How long to pay ? How much to spend?

3. TechnologyFTTN FTTP HFC ????

3 “end games”, maybe more?

4. ProductsGBMbps What will households buy?

5. EvolutionA to B to C What infrastructure steps? To what end?

6. Competition2 1 3

Long term perspective?

7. Goals Fixed catch-up ?

Over 40 years of utility. 2000 years of precedent.

Cornalvo Dam 1st or 2nd century AD.

Snowy Mountains Scheme completed 1972 Sydney Opera House Opened1973

Pompeii Amphitheatre Circa 70BC

Water Management Performance Space

1. Time2013-2050 Previous Nation Building Projects

1. “When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.” The Probabilities

2. “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.”

The Possibilities3. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable

from magic”. The Magic

NBN Evolution = Probabilities + Possibilities + Magic 0 -10 Years 5 -15 Years 10 -50 Years

1. Time2013-2050 Arthur C. Clarke’s 3 laws of prediction

5

Byte Magazine 09/85 Broadband 2040?

Looking back 30 years $840 modem (2013 $)

Looking forward 30 yearsCopper, coax, fibre, wireless?

1. Time2013-2050 How far can we see?

Just 30 years of broadband. Don’t know future to “future proof”

30 years from now Verizon and ATT will supply an EP-Card

(entangled particle card) for your cell phone. It will have the match

back in the Central Office. All incoming or outgoing info (data,

calls, whatever) will be INSTANTANEOUS and, even better, will NOT USE RF OR FREQUENCIES for the link.

Imagine that - no such thing as "bandwidth" or "frequencies" anymore. Eventually everything that links will have an EP-Card, even television - no more RF.

May 20, 2010http://phys.org/news193551675.html

Mk 1 NBN

Risk: Cant know endgame, but paying for >25 years.Simply too expensive

Mk 2 NBN Possible Approach

Risk: More expensive and slower (in retrospect)

2. Economics$$$$$$ How long? How much? Steps?

Start Endgame>25 Years to Pay

Rising ARPU, $30Bn Grant?

Magic 15-50 YearsPossibilities 5-15 YearsProbabilities 0-5 Years

Start Step 1 Step 5Step 2 Step 4Step 3 Step 6

Evolution versus attempted revolution

Option

s

Option

s

Option

s

Option

s

Option

s

Copper, coax and wireless networks all effectively co-evolving as competing infrastructureCopper, coax and fibre all able to meet needs if appropriately designed.

82% <500m90%,<1kmUrban (GQI)

3. TechnologyFTTN FTTP HFC ????

Technology Evolution Paths

FTTdp

Very Small Cell

Small Cell

Macro cell

HFC

Wireless

Coax

Segmented HFC

HFC Mini node

Commonality: Pushing Fibre ever closer

Diff

eren

ce: “

Dro

p” o

r “Le

ad-In

”

FTTN

FTTPFibre

Last 100 MetersLast 750 Meters

>50Mbps

To HomeCopper DSLAM

Optical Fibre

<5Km from home

1-20 Km from home

Copper

Airwaves

Coax

8

What to do? Stop obsessing about “endgames” and “best”. All fixed networks evolve just fine - push fibre close to homes . Reuse existing lead-in, but be prepared for possible fibre/wireless endgame replacing/augmenting physical lead-ins.

Today’s Games

Copper DSLAM

Optical Fibre

Coax/HFC

Macrocell

Wireless

FTTH(wireless a Competitor)

Fibre/Wireless(fixed and wireless converged)

Mixed(including wireless as option)

Endgame(s)

Short Fibre Long Fibre

3. TechnologyFTTN FTTP HFC ????

3 “end games”, maybe more?

Difficult overbuild economics. Could occur with urban renewal over many decades

Obvious path forward. May endure in many countries for many decades

Potentially cheapest and best. Real “endgame”?

• Mobile speed and capacity growing faster than fixed• Both growing faster than high and low end user needs• Mobile to be good enough for many• Either good enough for most at around 50Mbps (actual)?

3. TechnologyFTTN FTTP HFC ????

Ever enough speed ?

Key implication of model is that there may well be an end point – and possibly not far away. Avoid over-investing far in advance of demand

Phil Dobbie?

Phil’s Neighbour?

1. From inside urban premises - 1 in 5 houses hosting a public LTE small cell and 10X spectrum gives 1000X capacity by 2020 (Qualcom)

2. From urban power poles – 32 LTE small cells per macro and 2X spectrum also gives 1000X (Qualcom)

3. From rural areas: commercial mobile LTE will serve last 25% of USA for fixed and mobile needs. Leverage commercial mobile for emergency services, USO & NBN?

First is a threat to NBN Business Case RevenuesSecond and third are opportunities for cooperation or conflict

3. TechnologyFTTN FTTP HFC ????

3 Fibre/Wireless Evolution Paths

UbiTel Australia’s Ubiquitous Network2020 Family Plan - à la carte:1. 100 Gbytes $60/m2. Up to 20 devices $10/device3. Home Cell $50/m (including 300 Home Gbytes)4. Unlim. Voice Calls $5/ph. no (in Australia)Family Saver: $190/month

(including 100 standard Gbytes, 300 home Gbytes, 10 devices (SIMS) and 4 phone nos)

4. ProductsGBMbps Household Comms in 2020?

Value in simplicity, ubiquity and reliable real-time delivery of gigabytes?

Magic 15-50 YearsPossibilities 5-15 YearsProbabilities 0-5 Years

StartNBN Reboot, HFC

incorporatedStep 2

Leverage Commercial LTE in Rural Areas

Step 1Extend fibre to node

Step 3Selective FTTdpHFC mini nodes

Step 4Support Urban Small

Cells

Step 5Fibre with Urban Utilities Renewal

Step 6Whitespace, WiFi, Mesh

LTE Direct ??????????

Step 7Entangled Particle

?????????

5. EvolutionA to B to C What infrastructure steps?

• Competitive market dynamics guiding convergence elsewhere - see BT, Comcast and Vodafone as fixed network owners with mobile assets

• Au scenario depends on C’wealth settings - compete, cooperate, divest

• Will not be easy – could inadvertently limit mobile development overall or create opportunity for just one winner to take all.

Co-evolution or competition?

Relationship between fixed and mobile bigger issue than which fixed technology to install

• Private Enterprise or Public Utility? operator consolidation to regulated broadband utity(s) mirroring gas and electricity ?

Possible response: maintaining real competition as long as possible – but recognising costs may be lowered be consolidating infrastructure.

• Long distance or retail competition? 121 POIs enable old long distance competition, but at expense of retail service provider competition.

Possible response: fewer POIs.• Fixed, mobile or converged? Focus on fixed could inadvertently cause

mobile dominance and reduced fixed business case.

Possible response: careful scope definition. Don’t block technically and commercially attractive convergence options.

• Universal service obligation and emergency wireless services needs add to potential uneconomic network duplication.

Possible response: address communications in rural areas holistically and in context of convergence.

6. Competition2 1 3

Long Term Perspective

Or,

Be a global leader (top 5) in ubiquitous broadband from 3rd in mobile broadband ?

7. Goals Fixed catch-up from 29th?

15

Dante’s Inferno“Dante and Virgil witnessing the punishment of the diviners, whose heads are turned backwards because they had attempted to see too far into the future, in illustration of Canto XX”. Attribution: Priamo della Quercia http://www.bl.uk/catalogues/illuminatedmanuscripts/ILLUMIN.ASP?Size=mid&IllID=45989

James’s Law: when you look into the future, most of what you see is your own preconceived ideas.

8. Warning Risks of looking too far into the future