Are we running on empty on Biofuels?

Biofuels and Climate ChangeBiofuels and Climate Change

Presentation byPresentation by

AGHAMAGHAMSamahan ng Nagtataguyod ng Agham at Teknolohiya para sa SambayananSamahan ng Nagtataguyod ng Agham at Teknolohiya para sa Sambayanan

What is climate change?

Accelerated warming of surface due to human-related releases of greenhouses gases

Projections of Surface Temperature ChangeProjections of Surface Temperature Change

Accelerated temperature change

1900’s – hottest century

2005 and 1998 – hottest years;

1995 to 2006, (except 1996) =

Top 12 hottest years since 1850

Increase in temperature

in the last 50 years was

0.13 degrees centigrade/decade

which is twice faster

than the last 100 years

of 0.6 degrees centigrade

Greenhouse Gases

Carbon dioxide CO2 - 54.9% second most common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural greenhouse effect. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing, deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally through photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires. Methane CH4 - third most common GHG ; Oil and gas production, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion.

Nitrous oxide N2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally.

OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF6, Perfluocarbons PFCs, Hydroflurocarbons HFCs

Adverse Impacts Agriculture

• Productivity in tropics/subtropics; food shortage Water Resources

• Water availability + quality; floods and droughts; hydropower sources

People's Health

• Vector and water borne disease, heat stress, nutrition, EWE deaths

Coastal Areas and Fisheries

Species and Natural Areas

• Biodiversity loss Forests

Human Displacement

Malaria and Climate

Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission across the diverse topography of Zimbabwe, based on United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate scenarios

Relationship between temperature and malaria parasite development time

Source: Patz, Jonathan A. and Olson, Sarah H. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5635-5636

2000 2050

Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005

Hurricanes/Typhoons(Category 4/5)

Crop Yield Change

Source: IPCC TAR

2020s

2080s

Developing countries are Developing countries are most vulnerable most vulnerable

Impacts are worse

− Lower capacity to adapt

− Lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge

Impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries

− Exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

The poor face greatest The poor face greatest challenges from climate challenges from climate changechange

2 billion people in developing countries affected by climate related disaster in the 1990s.

The rate has doubled this decade.

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Nu

mb

er

aff

ec

ted

(Mill

ion

s)

Dev'ed

CIT

Dev'ing

LDC

Tonnes oil equivalent

Consumption per capita 2006

Souce: BPStatistical Review of World Energy

Top CO2 emissions

United States and TNCs

GHGs in RP 1999, Philippines emitted

75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission.

From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%.

Loss of forest cover

Deforestration Mining

What are biofuels?

Transport fuels from organic material

− biodiesel (vegetable oils)

− bioethanol (sugar and starch) Research to commercialise

“second-generation” biofuels from woody material, grasses and waste.

− ligno-cellulosic matter, biomass

Biofuels Act 2006

Mandate for all gasoline users and oil companies to blend the fuel they sell with either biodiesel or bioethanol

5% blending of Ethanol into Gasoline while 1% Biodiesel in Petro diesel for the first 4 years upon signing of the Bill into Law

Biofuels Act stated objectives Develop and utilize indigenous renewable and

sustainably-sourced clean energy sources to reduce dependence on imported oil;

Mitigate toxic and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions;

Increase rural employment and income; and Ensure the availability of alternative and

renewable clean energy without any detriment to the natural ecosystem, biodiversity and food reserves of the country.

Biofuels Act objectives

Replacing fossil fuels with biofuels could provide environmental benefits

− decrease in air pollution (sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides, ground-level ozone, global-warming pollutants, and others)

− decrease water pollution from petroleum spills

− decrease in land destruction from oil drilling

Reduction of fossil fuel byproducts

Advocates say that petroleum refining has many toxic byproducts

− heavy metals, xylene, benzene, etc.

These would be replaced with a very short list of less toxic byproducts of biorefineries

− Ethanol production byproducts

BIOFUELS RUSH

European Union has mandated that 10% of transportation fuels be derived from plant biomass by 2020.

In the United States, George Bush stated a goal of replacing 20% of U.S. transportation fuel with ethanol by 2017.

China, Japan, India and other countries are also working towards fueling their burgeoning economies with biofuels.

Brazil is already producing 40% of transportation fuels from sugar cane ethanol and soya biodiesel.

Source: EIA/DOE, Comissão Européia; Copersucar

Potential of the ethanol market

Possible environmental impacts

Efficiency in energy production

Increased water use

Increased fertilizer and pesticide use

Reduction of greenhouse gases emission

Effect on soil and water quality;

Food crop conversion

Forest conversion

Energy costs in producing biofuels

Hidden cost in fossil fuels production: from plant material millions of years old

Biofuels depend on conversion of energy crops to fuels

− Net energy value (NEV) of at least 1.3 to 1.67 (USDA) for corn to ethanol

However, other costs could make the net energy value negative

− fermentation/distillation process, subsidies, environmental pollution/degradation costs

Increased water use

The water demand of a large biofuel facility does have the potential to significantly impact local water supplies

Large hectarage converted to biofuel production without massive irrigation facilities

Clearing of rain forest and other habitats of high nature value for biofuel production can cause environmental damage.

Increased water pollution

Ethanol plants discharge more concentrated sediment- and nutrient water back into the environment

TDS (total dissolved solids) and chloride levels can rise

Increase in fertilizer use

Biofuel production rely heavily on petroleum inputs

− Ammonia fertilizer, etc

− Nitrogenous compounds is a major source of to ground water and surface water pollution.

Possible soil abuse and water pollution should be avoided

Increased petroleum inputs might offset greenhouse gas reductions

Greenhouse gas emissions Biofuels are not “clean” burning;

they are just a bit of “cleaner” burning

Carbon based fuels still contribute air pollutants

Not the cheapest way to get greenhouse gas savings

− One of the few measures that can be done alongside improvements in vehicle efficiency

New crops for biofuels

BT Corn, Jathropa, Grass plants, other perennial energy crops (coconuts)

What are the long term and large scale effects of planting these crops?

− Effects on food production& food security

− On agrarian reform

− On its long term economic value

Deforestation, monoculture plantations, and loss of

biodiversity Brazil – planned expansion of sugar cane production,

from current 6 M has. to 30M has. More

Argentina – more than 500,000 has of forest lands converted to soya plantations (1998-2002)

Nicaragua -200,000 has slated for palm oil for biodiesel

Indonesia and Malaysia – expansion of palm oil plantations further threatened populations of orangutan, rhinoceros, tigers and other animals on brink of extinction

Clearing of Peat Forests in SEA

Biomass energy

Biomass Energy (2002)

− Bagasse, charcoal, coconut and rice residues, wood/wood waste, animal waste (78.84-131 mmboe)

Biofuels Act

− 5% Ethanol in gasoline, 1% biodiesel in first 4 years

− Target of 110 ML of biodiesel/year

− Biofuels for export

Dependence on foreign imported technology to process biofuels

Government's grand mega-sale

Expected foreign investments

− P177 billion potential investment in the renewable energy sector for 2004-2013 (60% of the P295 billion in investments)

EPIRA: IPPs, SPUG SPEX in Malampaya

− 45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco

− 10% to be sold

Foreign monopoly firms in energy

OilShell (US/Dutch), Caltex/Chevron-Texaco (US), Petron/ARAMCO (US,Saudi) , TOTAL (French)

EnergyMirant (US), KEPCO (Korean), East Asia (UK),JAPEX, Forum Asia, Tokyo Consortium

Biofuels

Saudi Aramco – $300 M expansion for Mindanao ethanol plant

Bronzeoak Phils. (British) – San Carlos Bioenergy Inc. (Negros Occ.) bioethanol plant

Marubeni (Japan) – studying bioethanol plant investment

Toyo Engineering (Japan) – targets 600,000 Ha. for coco-biodiesel production

ADB, WB-IMF, AusAID, USAID, AGILE

Petroleum Service Contracts: Sold/for sale

Malampaya (Shell/Chevron Texaco) Exxon Mobil in Mindanao, a consortium of BHP

Billiton (Australia), Amerada Hess Ltd. (US), Unocal Sulu (US) Ltd. and

Sandakan Oil II, LLC in the Sulu Sea Alcorn Gold Resources Corp., Trans-Asia Oil and

Energy Development Corp. and PetroEnergy Resources Corp. in the East Visayan basin off Leyte island

EF Durkee and Associates in the Cagayan Valley region (Piat-San Jose area)

Laxmi Organic Industries Ltd. (India) in the Mindoro-Cuyo basin west of Mindoro island

in West Palawan (Ottoman Energy Ltd., Australasian Energy Ltd. and Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development Corp)

Nido Petroleum Philippines Ltd. off-Palawan off-Mindoro with Petronas Carigali Philippine National Oil Co.-Exploration Corp., Cagayan basin : Aragorn Power Corp., South Cebu : Phil-Mal Petroenergy Corp. Ottoman Energy Ltd. in Northewest Palawan.

Service not profit

Philippines rich in energy sources

Nationalization not privatizationEnsure people’s welfare

Strategic planning for sustained growth

People's control over energy resources

Build R&D capacity in energy technologies