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CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Agro/Biofuels- a climate disaster in the making
Biofuelwatch
working withGlobal Forest Coalition, Global Justice Ecology Project, Grupo de Reflexion Rural (Argentina), FERN, Watch Indonesia, Rettet den Regenwald e.V., Econexus, Munlochy Vigil, and Noah (Friends of the Earth Denmark), Corporate Europe Observatory, and Gaia
Foundation and World Rainforest Movement
introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Summary• US / EU Policy – WHY?• Voices from the South
– Food, social, land disruption– Neo-colonial agenda
• Do Agrofuels save or create more emissions?
• 2nd generation• Food security• The climate context
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Exponential Growth
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
US / EU Policy – going off the graph
EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now)
2010 2020
US – 20% by 2020 (4% now)
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers• Government and corporate subsidy and
promotion• Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms
– Year-on-year economic growth– Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics
• Short term “energy security” fix– Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq– Stabilising Oil price?– EU / US Oil independence
• New global mega-industry– agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar)
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Massive land-use change in global South, and crop commodity traffic
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
• Step change in agriculture and global biosphere use
• Limited (or No) environmental and scientific scrutiny
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Hundreds of NGOs in Latin America, Asia
and Africa have spoken out against large-scale biofuel
monocultures.
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
from a declaration by Latin American NGOs
• “We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty…We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa. “
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Sawit Watch, Indonesian NGO• “Palm oil for biofuels increases social
conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia…It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the
Earth Nigeria • “It is a push by industry to make
another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to do increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces”
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Landless Movement of Brazil (MST) • “We can't call this a ‘bio-fuels program’.
We certainly can't call it a ‘bio-diesel program’. Such phrases use the prefix ‘bio-‘ to subtly imply that the energy in question comes from ‘life’ in general. This is illegitimate and manipulative. We need to find a term in every language that describes the situation more accurately, a term like agro-fuel. This term refers specifically to energy created from plant products grown through agriculture.”
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Biofuel RefugeesU.N. Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues
recently highlighted biofuels • 5 million people at risk in West
Kalimantan, Indonesia• 60 million worldwide • Pushed off land, culture destroyed,
refugees go to big city slums• 'The speed with which this is happening we don't
really realize in our part of the world because the technology we have today and the economic resources that are at stake are so big, it happens overnight.‘ Ida Nicolaisen, UNPFII
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Emission trickery
Exporting emissions from Northern
transport to Southern agriculture and
landuse
NB: Soil + Peat not included
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Do Agrofuels save emissions?• What is the whole life-cycle?Built on Fossil Fuels
– Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based – fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions
– Feedstock transport, shipping– Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ;
process chemicals• Lifecycle studies don’t scale up
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Savings in isolation?• Corn Ethanol – 13% savings –
Berkeley 2006 study– Patzek – actually 50%-100% more CO2
for ethanol than for fossil fuels
• Deforestation biodiesel– Peat drainage – long term timebomb– 2-8 times as much CO2 biodiesel cf
fossil
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat Destruction 1• Drainage: the dry peat - oxidises and
emits carbon dioxide. • Very rapidly in the tropics, and is often
accelerated by wildfires. • Peat fires in South-east Asia can burn
millions of hectares in one dry season and can last for weeks, sometimes even months, burning thick layers of peat and covering the region in thick smoke.
• Of the 21 million hectares of peatland in Indonesia 9 million hectares are drained and are decomposing or even burning.
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Peat Destruction 2
•
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Any Savings are diluted at system level
• THE DILUTION FACTOR - 1% biofuels today– Assume 10% C emissions savings litre for litre– Total saving = 0.1% saving globally
• Most optimistic 2020 : 5% BFs – 0.5% savings
• Same savings can be made by:– Each driver driving 0.5% less (ie 50 miles for UK driver)– Each driver goes 2 mph slower– Tyres inflated properly
• >20% transport sector savings can be achieved in 10-20 years– Sustainable transport, modal shift, social planning -
work-home relocation etc
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
What about second generation?
• Ligno-cellulosic• Use stalks and other plant parts
– Plus massive GM tech
• Cf: First generation – simple chemistry
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Extra Energy Steps (1)
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Extra Energy Steps (2)• Break down lignin
•500,000,000 years evolution
Biological splitting atom?
•Plants protective structure
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Full spectrum GM• GM is being developed 1. For plants
– Weakened lignin (floppy trees)
2. Processing– GM enzymes, yeasts, fungi
3. Synthetic Biology
• Biohazards on unprecedented level
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
The deep cuts we really need
UK emissions
---- Government target____ Friends of the Earth Big Ask 3% annually ____ George Monbiot near linear >4% (90% by
2030) ____ George Monbiot 7% front-loaded (90% by 2030)____ George Monbiot 10% front-loaded (90% by 2030)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1990 2000 2010 2020
2050 Govt. target : 60% reduction
2010 Govt. target : 20% reduction
The GAP which must be closed
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
2nd generation can’t deliver deep cuts to transport emissions. Even if it could, they would not be soon
enough
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
Food securityThe US case• Direct food / fuel competition• World grain reserves lowest in 30 years -
14mt used to fuel US cars in 2006.• 60% rise in grain price in 2006 -
Speculators entering market• Jan 2007 Mexican food protests
– Diversion of US corn to ethanol
Global South• Cash crops /Exports vs. local food supply
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
The Climate Context• 1st generation biofuels
– Very little climate benefit – Often a climate disaster
• Eg Indonesian peat lands• Deforestation tropics• Yet being delivered massively before
• 2nd generation biofuels– 15-20 years to develop– BUT emissions must be cut now– Biohazards (even now in R&D)– Deforestation boreal and temporate
Transport sector DEMAND REDUCTION
CCC conference13th May 2007
Agro/Biofuels – a Climate Disaster in the Making
What you can do• Show solidarity with communities in the global
South
• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected]
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk ALERTS and RESOURCES– UK government consultation on RTFO– sign a petition to Tony Blair – write to Tesco – Uganda’s Mabira rainforest - sugar cane plantations
• Email us at [email protected] if you would like to get more involved in the campaign.